Luther Burden III was at the top of everyone’s draft boards entering the season. That was no surprise, considering he was a five-star recruit who burst onto the scene in 2023, but so far in 2024, his production has declined to an extent. His production decline could be for several reasons, and after watching the film, I found it wasn’t just one. I’ll explain more about that later on, but what brings excitement is his fit in a Shanahan-style offense. His athletic profile and skill set fit the mold they love in those kinds of offenses. While Burden III is a thick, well-built player, he also has rare twitchiness and explosiveness.

RAC ability is where Burden III stands out the most as a player. The caveat with Burden III is that he’s primarily a Slot player and doesn’t have much experience on the outside. That’s a genuine concern since he could go top-ten. However, I see the right tools in him to develop those needed traits to succeed on the outside. He may be more of a Slot prototype, but ultimately he could develop into a highly productive player in the pros.

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Luther Burden III’s Stats (per PFF)

(Through WK Ten)

Film Analysis

The clip above is an excellent example of the damage he can do as a deep threat playing from the Slot. He faces press man coverage and burns the Georgia DB despite him getting a hand on him in the press phase. Burden III also shows exceptional ball tracking to haul this in.

Burden III runs a nice deep out and then breaks a tackle leading to a big YAC gain. His route break was very sudden and created plenty of separation.

In addition to the route running and RAC ability he continues to show, he proves he can make tough catches in traffic. He runs a deep crosser here and turns it into a massive gain.

In this play, Burden showcases his acrobatic catching ability on a go route against press-man coverage. The explosiveness off the line is one thing, but topping it off with those kinds of ball skills shows he’s special.

Grades

OVR Grade: 1-100

Luther Burden III’s Pros And Cons

Luther Burden III Bio

Luther Burden III’s combination of explosiveness, compact size, and RAC ability give him the potential to dominate in a Shanahan-style offense.

Pros

• A combination of size, explosiveness, contact balance, and vision make him an elite RAC threat.
• Foot speed is evident when he beats press coverage and shows elite lateral quickness with the ball in his hands.
• Excellent catch radius for a 5’11” player and the ability to highpoint the ball.
• Flexible chest piece that can line up anywhere from wide-out to Running Back.
• Fantastic ability to track in the deep ball and has decently secure hands – under 5% drop rate over the past two years (as of WK nine).
• Outstanding on option routes where he can use his short area burst and understanding of leverage to get open.
• Agility and change of direction will allow him to become an elite route runner.
• Toughness is a plus, and he showed decent willingness as a blocker

Cons

• Limited ability to beat press coverage as he has average length and doesn’t have much experience against it.
• All-around refinement isn’t there completely – lacks aggressiveness as a route runner and will have ugly reps where he positions himself poorly in his release leading to getting out-muscled by the DB.
• Won’t ever be a truly elite deep threat due to not having absurd speed.

Combine

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Pro Day

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All-22 Exposures

• Florida, 2023
• Georgia, 2023
• LSU, 2023
• Boston College, 2024
• Texas A&M, 2024

Best Potential Landing Spots for Luther Burden III

• CIN Bengals
• TEN Titans

Final Conclusion on Luther Burden III

If you’ve read my draft content for a while, you know I don’t particularly like Slot prototypes at Receiver. While Luther Burden III is primarily a Slot at Missouri, he could play the Deebo Samuel role in a wide-zone offense. It’s already kind of what he was doing at Mizzou, but he could go on to play much more on the perimeter in the pros. I’d expect him to be more of a Slot early on, but as he develops and gains confidence, why couldn’t he be a dominant outside guy?

It is fair to say his draft stock has dropped a slight bit since the beginning of the year. He’s just not getting targeted as much in 2024, and when he does get the ball, he’s not creating nearly as many RAC yards. Do I think he’s actually gotten worse? Not necessarily, because he has shown improvement in some areas, such as his release. Furthermore, it seems he’s drawn a lot more attention from defenses in 2024. His RAC numbers dropping off drew a bit of concern, but he still didn’t show any regression in that area in the film I watched.

Overall, he isn’t any worse of a player than he was coming into the year. However, other prospects have passed him up as of late. I’d still easily take him top 15, especially to a team like Cincinnati or Tennessee. Regardless of where Burden III lines up, he has a chance to produce at a high level. That’s someone you invest a first-round pick in. If he picks his production back up, we’d be talking about him as a top-eight pick. A creative offensive mind is surely dying for a dynamic playmaker like Burden III. He isn’t a sure thing, but give him a year or two to develop with a competent offense, and he could be a star.

Value – 2nd Receiver/ 1st RD