The Atlanta Falcons arguably had the best offseason, acquiring superstar talent and retaining impact players. They surprisingly looked competitive for a good stretch last year and got excellent development out of their O-linemen. The front office ultimately chose to stick with Desmond Ridder and not draft his replacement. It is unclear whether this was the right move, but I’m not exactly a fan of it.
On the bright side, this offense is loaded with talent, especially after drafting Bijan Robinson. The run game will be dominant, which is of great aid to Ridder. Furthermore, some terrific additions were made at critical positions on the defense. It may seem like they are much better than the 30th-best team, but so many organizations improved over the off-season, and the Falcons have arguably the worst starting QB. Despite what’s likely to be mediocre QB play, I expect them to be an exciting watch.
I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.
Grading scale: 20-100.
(+): The player is expected to improve.
| Power Ranking – 30 | OVR Grade – 78.1 | Projected Wins – 7.0 |
| HC – Arthur Smith | OC – Dave Ragone | DC – Ryan Nielsen |
The Falcons don’t have any household names at the coaching spots, but it’s a dependable group. Arthur Smith is among the league’s most creative and clever play callers. He gets a bad rep for his lack of usage with Kyle Pitts, but he has an exceptional grasp for calling plays. He runs a wide-zone offense primarily, with a healthy mixture of counters. The use of play, action, and motion is heavily prominent in his offense. He runs a very QB-friendly system, and it’s exciting to see what Robinson can become in this scheme.
Ryan Nielsen was brought in from New Orleans to coach the defense and should do a fine job. He is a former player who went on to coach defense in college and then got a gig with the Saints as a D-Line coach. Later on, he got promoted to Co-Defensive Coordinator. The Saints D-Linemen developed well under Nielsen, and I expect the same in Atlanta. You can also expect a lot of match coverages to be used. With plenty of added talent, this defense will likely take a turn for the better.
| Playcalling – 84 |
| Scheme – Wide Zone |
| QB – 67.2 (+) |
| Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Logan Woodside |
| Receiving Options – 81.0 |
| WR1 – Drake London(+), KhaDarel Hodge WR2 – Mack Hollins, Frank Darby SWR – Scotty Miller, Penny Hart TE – Kyle Pitts(+), Jonnu Smith, Parker Hesse HB – Bijan Robinson(+), Tyler Algeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley FB – Keith Smith |
| Pass-Pro – 77.8 |
| LT – Jake Matthews, Germain Ifedi LG – Matthew Bergeron (+), Matt Hennessy, OC – Drew Dalman, Ryan Neuzil RG – Chris Lindstrom, Jalen Mayfield, Justin Shaffer RT – Kaleb McGary, Joshua Miles HB – Bijan Robinson, Tyler Algeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley |
| Run Blocking – 83.1 |
| LT – Jake Matthews, Germain Ifedi LG – Matthew Bergeron (+), Matt Hennessy, OC – Drew Dalman, Ryan Neuzil RG – Chris Lindstrom, Jalen Mayfield, Justin Shaffer RT – Kaleb McGary, Joshua Miles TE – Kyle Pitts(+), Jonnu Smith, Parker Hesse FB – Keith Smith |
| Run Options – 86.3 |
| HB – Bijan Robinson(+), Tyler Algeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley |
How this offense pans out primarily depends on how well Ridder plays. The weapons and O-line are already in place, alongside fantastic playcalling, and it’s a matter of how Ridder can capitalize on the talent around him. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are an incredible one-two punch to rely on. Now you add Bijan Robinson into the mix; you’re talking about a stellar core group of playmakers.
Expect this run game to be one of the league’s best, as Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary make a world of difference in the run game. As Ridder is in an amicable system, it would not be shocking to see him play above the grade I gave him. However, based on what we saw last year, it’s only fair to assume he’ll be average. This is still a legitimate offense capable of winning games. It’s just challenging to expect them to be a playoff contender with Ridder.
| Coaching – 78 |
| Scheme – 4-3 Man |
| Secondary – 83.4 |
| CB1 – A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughs CB2 – Jeff Okudah, Darren Hall SCB – Clark Philips(+), Dee Alford FS – Jessie Bates, Micah Abernathy SS – Richie Grant, Jaylinn Hawkins |
| Pass Rush – 80.9 |
| ED1 – Arnold Ebikete(+), Lorenzo Carter, Zach Harrison ED2 – Bud Dupree, Adetokunbo Ogundeji IDL1 – Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Ta’Quon Graham IDL2 – Calais Campbell, Eddie Goldman |
| Off-Ball Linebacker – 74.7 |
| LB1 – Troy Andersen(+), Kaden Elliss, Dorian Etheridge LB2 – Mykal Walker, Tae Davis |
| Run Defense – 77.8 |
| ED1 – Arnold Ebikete(+), Lorenzo Carter, Zach Harrison ED2 – Bud Dupree, Adetokunbo Ogundeji IDL1 – Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Ta’Quon Graham IDL2 – Calais Campbell, Eddie Goldman |
It’s difficult not to love what Atlanta did to this defense over the offseason. They already had two stars to build around in A.J. Terrell and Grady Jarrett – now they have a near-complete unit to help them win games. Atlanta quietly did an excellent job filling in the margins while bringing in a superstar talent.
Jessie Bates can be that true Free Safety with elite range and coverage instincts. True Free Safety is one of the most challenging positions to find, and you get arguably the best one in the league. Bringing in a handful of sturdy D-linemen also helps bolster this unit significantly. Acquiring Jeff Okudah completed the secondary and gave them a trump card on defense being their secondary. This newly assembled unit is one of the most exciting to look forward to.
| Special Teams – 88 |
| K – Koo Younghoe P – Bradley Pinion LS – Liam McCullough KR – Avery Williams, Cordarrelle Patterson PR – Avery Williams |
Total Win Projection – 7.0
| WK | Atlanta | Win % |
| 1 | vs. CAR | 50% |
| 2 | vs. GB | 43% |
| 3 | at DET | 20% |
| 4 | at JAC | 20% |
| 5 | vs HOU | 57% |
| 6 | vs WAS | 50% |
| 7 | vs. TB | 50% |
| 8 | at TEN | 33% |
| 9 | vs. MIN | 33% |
| 10 | at AZ | 57% |
| 11 | BYE | |
| 12 | at NO | 33% |
| 13 | at NYJ | 20% |
| 14 | at TB | 43% |
| 15 | at CAR | 43% |
| 16 | vs. IND | 57% |
| 17 | at CHI | 43% |
| 18 | vs. NO | 43% |
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