Bo Nix’s evaluation was one of the most difficult ones I’ve done in my four years of doing draft analysis. That would be due to how conservative and screen-heavy Oregon’s play-calling was. In addition, Oregon had excellent pass protection and Receivers who made tough catches. That makes it very tough to project how he’ll do in the pros. Nix is fascinating because he went from being looked at as a day-two pick to suddenly playing elite for college standards. His advanced analytics are unworldly, as he put up some stats I’ve literally never seen before. Whether his film matches the absurd numbers he’s produced is a massive question, and that’s what we’ll be assessing in this article.
Five all-22 games and his highlights were evaluated, and clips from his film are broken down here. All relevant traits were graded based on his film. His scouting report also factored in stats and analytics, such as PFF grades. Use promo code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Please gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.
| Profile |
|---|
| 3rd QB / 1st RD | 6’2 / 217 | SR | Oregon |
| Pro Comp |
|---|
| Ryan Tannehill |
| Scheme |
|---|
| Play-Action/ Spread |
QB Stats
| 2023 (Through WK 14) | |
|---|---|
| COM%: 77.1 YPA: 9.5 Pass YDS: 4,091 Pass TDS: 40 | INT: 3 Rush YDS: 250 Rush TDS: 6 FUM: 2 |
| 2022 | |
|---|---|
| COM%: 71.8 YPA: 8.8 Pass YDS: 3,589 Pass TDS: 29 | INT: 7 Rush YDS: 519 Rush TDS: 14 FUM: 1 |
Film Analysis
Bo Nix displays terrific arm talent and ball placement on this deep ball. This pass was probably around 55 yards from where he threw it. He climbs to his second read quickly, recognizes the single high Safety, and hits the Receiver in stride.
Here, the defense is in what looks like cover-six, and the Safety is caught playing too deep, which allows Nix to thread it between the two defenders. This is another example of an NFL-caliber throw.
The touch and precision of this ball are a thing of beauty. He made this throw under pressure, showing he has the poise to make big time throws like that. Nix quickly looks off his first read and makes a good decision in a split second.
Grades
OVR Grade: 1-100
| Individual trait scale (1-7): |
|---|
| 7 – Rare world-class skill; best in the league and no room for improvement | 6 – Great-elite skill; one of the best at that given trait but still has some room to improve | 5 – Very good; above average and has potential to be elite | 4 – Average; able to suffice but, not ideal long-term | 3 – Below average; able to suffice at college level | 2 – Poor; hinders overall play and is a liability to the team | 1 – Awful; not good enough to play given position at any level above D2 | Note: Consistency plays a large factor. |
| Overall Draft grade scale (1-100, realistically: 57-87): |
|---|
| 86 – Perfect prospect | 82 – Bluechip prospect | 80 – Likely all-pro | 79 – Day one quality starter or superstar potential | 78 – Day one starter w/ all-pro upside | 77 – Day one starter w/ high-end upside | 76 – Day One Starter | 75 – Boom or bust | 74 – Will become quality starter within 2-3 years | 73 – Boom or bust (high risk) | 72 – Will become starter within 2-3 years | 71 – Day-one backup with starter upside |
SPD – Speed
ACC – Acceleration
AGI – Agility
STR – Strength
ARM – Arm Strength
REL – Release
TWM – Throwing While Moving
TUP – Throwing Under Pressure
SAC – Short Accuracy
MAC – Intermediate Accuracy
DAC – Deep Accuracy
PRC – Processor
DEC – Decision-Making
PA – Play Action
SPR – Sense Pressure
ELU – Elusiveness/ Contact Balance
SEC – Ball Security
Traits/ Skills
(Grades are subject to change until draft day.)
| Traits | Immediate | Potential |
| SPD | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| ACC | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| AGI | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| STR | 5 | 5 |
| ARM | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| REL | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| TWM | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| TUP | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| SAC | 5.4 | 6 |
| MAC | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| DAC | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| PRC | 4 | 5.5 |
| DEC | 4.4 | 5.9 |
| PA | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| SPR | 4.3 | 5.1 |
| ELU | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| SEC | 4.8 | 5.8 |
Bo Nix’s Pros and Cons
- Bo Nix is a unique quarterback prospect who has the tools to succeed in the pros if surrounded by talented playmakers and a good offensive line. Put him on a team like Carolina, and he’ll fail, but he could indeed be a stud on a team like the Niners.
Pros
- While not elite, his arm is better than most QBs in the pros.
- Throws a beautiful deep ball with perfect touch and ball placement – tied for second highest adjusted completion percentage on deep balls through week 13.
- Consistently gets the ball out on time – under 2.5 seconds to throw in 2023.
- Enough mobility to extend plays.
- General accuracy is top-notch for a prospect – over 84 percent adjusted completion percentage in 2023.
- Elite production while in a stacked conference across 2023.
- Advanced metrics while throwing under pressure are outrageous – Just one turnover-worthy play and an adjusted completion percentage of almost 79 when under pressure.
- Able to keep his eyes downfield while maneuvering the pocket.
- The kind of improvement he’s shown indicates he is a hard worker.
Cons
- Operated with mostly RPOs and screens in Oregon. Doesn’t have much experience in the traditional drop-back passing game.
- It is not necessarily a weakness, but he’ll hit the check-down when he has the opportunity to extend the play.
- Doesn’t always go through his full progressions, leading to him missing open reads.
- Ball placement in the short-intermediate area is slightly off sometimes.
- Will be 24 years old as of draft day.
Combine – TBD
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Pro Day – TBD
40 yd:
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Bench:
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All-22 Exposures
- Georgia, 2022
- Washinton, 2022
- Texas Tech, 2023
- Stanford, 2023
- Washington State, 2023
Final conclusion on Bo Nix
Whether Bo Nix will translate to the pros strongly depends on where he lands. He’s nowhere near being a quarterback who can carry a team to wins, but if he lands somewhere with a talented offense, he has a good chance of success. Similar to Ryan Tannehill, he is accurate and can play with rhythm and timing. However, he’ll look poor when one of their key components goes down on offense. Based on the stats, you’d assume this is a top-ten pick. Although, the tape reveals someone who hasn’t proven to create offense on his own consistently.
I didn’t get a chance to watch the whole game of the Pac-12 championship, but I saw most of the fourth quarter. From what I heard, he played poorly in the first half but turned it around in the second. I’ll have to watch the all-22, but based on what I heard, it does lower his stock. The fact he struggled against top-tier competition is concerning, but he’ll have a chance to turn it around in the bowl game.
He’ll need a lot of help to flourish, so he’s best to get taken in the 15-25 range. I could see a world where Nix is a consensus top 15 QB and just as easily see a world where he busts. Many teams could use an upgrade at QB, as some of these younger guys didn’t pan out. Nix would be a possible upgrade for a few of them, such as New Orleans or Tampa Bay. This draft will be one of the more interesting ones in memory, and one of the reasons is how unique Nix is.
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