Buffalo Bills 2023 Preview: The Sword of Damocles Hanging Over The NFL

The Buffalo Bills find themselves in a unique situation this year. Josh Allen is coming off his best year, and this roster is phenomenal. However, in addition to all of the excellent teams in this conference, the Chiefs are borderline unstoppable. After some massive departures, will the Bills still be able to get to the promise land finally? That’s a tricky question, but if anyone can beat the Chiefs and win the AFC, it’s the Bills. With Josh Allen and their talented roster, they have all the tools to go blow for blow with Mahomes. They’ll just need to get hot when it matters most. If Buffalo falls short yet again, as impressive as Sean McDermott is, you have to start questioning his future at some point. I still rank this coach and culture tied for first. I just think you have something special in Allen, and finding a brilliant offensive mind may be better for the team. That said, we’ll see how this season goes, and I’m expecting another exhilarating season in Buffalo.

Losing Leslie Frazier normally wouldn’t be a significant blow, but they replaced him with no one. Instead, McDermott will be the DC, who will have his hands full coaching the team. It would be one thing if he hired a DC to give insight and called plays himself, but there’s currently no one to do that. I still give him the benefit of the doubt, but it’s something to watch for this year. In addition, Tremaine Edmunds was a star player they lost, and they’re depending on a raw rookie to replace him. On the bright side, Jordan Poyer is back, and the Bills made some lovely draft picks. Dalton Kincaid is a unique Tight End with tremendous upside. Drafting him allows them to run more 12 personnel, making this offense more dynamic. O’Cyrus Torrence is also an exceptional long-term plan at Guard. The Bills ultimately got worse, but so did most of the top teams. This roster talent is still ridiculous, and this team likely continues flourishing.

If you don’t know the story of Damocles, I suggest reading into it. It’s about this sword hanging by a single thread right over this king who sits on a thrown, causing fear while underneath it. The sword is an allegory for the dangers that come with power. The Chiefs are on the thrown, and the Bills are the sword instilling fear in them.

I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.

Key

Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Player Tiers:

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

The success of Sean McDermott has been well-documented. This franchise was sort of a laughing stock when he arrived. Since drafting Allen, this team has exuded dominance, and a lot of that is because of McDermott. The problem with McDermott is he doesn’t impact offense to any extent. You can rely on an incredible offensive play-caller for some time, but soon enough, they’ll become a head coach like Daboll did. He still does an excellent job of getting this team on the same page and has established an identity. However, you must ask whether they best optimize Allen’s talent with McDermott. They have an excellent OC to depend on for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get poached after 2023.

As a DC, we can expect a similar scheme from McDermott. Leslie Frazier ran a 4-2 quarters-man system, and that likely doesn’t change under McDermott. It’s a split safety secondary, and the Safeties play a massive role in this defense. The coverage scheme primarily consists of cover four and cover one. They’ll either have both safeties drop deep or have one come up and play a shallow zone. This scheme is very man-friendly, and the personnel matches their goals. There isn’t a lot of blitzing, but some of the blitzes that have been deployed here are very creative. I doubt McDermott botches his job as DC, but better DC options were available.

Ken Dorsey was the QB coach for Josh Allen and was later promoted to OC following the departure of Daboll. I had high hopes due to his success from Allen, and he didn’t disappoint. His offense is a modern pro-spread, similar to what Kansas City uses. The passing concepts are very west coast. We see a lot of screens and jet sweeps. He likes to get his playmakers open in space and finds crafty ways to do so. You have to love how he bought into Allen’s running ability and ran a ton of QB power. The running game consists of a lot of inside zones, in addition to various gap scheme runs. Dorsey has continued to make this offense conducive for Allen, and I expect him to be a head coach one day.

Bills Offense

Overall Offense – 86.0 (4)

With Josh Allen at the peak of his powers, a dominant X-Receiver, and a handful of quality players, the Bills are in for another dominant season. Ken Dorsey’s scheme is also perfect for this offense. Allen didn’t have his best season by coincidence last year. He got put in situations where he could thrive, and the offense sometimes became unstoppable. Allen learned how to play out of structure early into his career but has recently become a threatening player in structure. He may be prone to turnovers, but his big-time plays more than makeup for it. As a runner, he’s genuinely near the same tier as Lamar, as he’s incredibly fast and has the size and strength to shed tacklers. He’s also quite elusive for a big man. You can make an argument Allen has the best arm in NFL history. While he could still improve, you couldn’t be happier with him as your franchise guy. For more Josh Allen analysis, read “Ranking The 37 Best QBs In The NFL (Part Three).”

Stefon Diggs is undeniably an elite Receiver. He has an elite physical tool to rely on and packages that with phenomenal route running and ball skills. The chemistry he’s developed with Allen is easily top three in the league. Additionally, Gabe Davis is a solid number-two Receiver. He’s inconsistent, but you see him show up when it matters most. Buffalo brought in Trent Sherfield to play the Slot, who’s a decent replacement for Crowder and McKenzie. You’ll also see a bit of Khalil Shakir in the Slot and as a gadget player. Shakir has excellent upside and could offer some explosiveness out of the Slot. Sherfield, on the other hand, is just a dependable fourth option.

Dawson Knox is a fan favorite in Buffalo and plays a massive role in this offense. Not only is he an above-average blocker, but he’d make big-time catches in crucial situations. He is the optimal counterpart to Dalton Kincaid. Admittedly, I wasn’t very high on Kincaid, but I realize he has the opportunity to become something special in this offense. His first step, paired with his route running, was lethal at Utah. We’ll see how it translates, but the upside is undeniable. You can expect to see Kincaid matched up in the Slot a lot. Besides him, though, the depth is lacking. You at least have Reggie Gilliam, who’s a very underrated player. With the addition of more 12 personnel, this offense should take a step up.

James Cook was drafted relatively high and has shown some promising moments. When it comes to running situations, I expect to see Damien Harris as he’s the best pure runner here. Cook and Nyheim Hines will be exceptional receiving backs; just don’t expect them to be too good of runners. Latavius Murray is also here, who’ll be a fine replacement to Harris if he goes down.

Furthermore, the O-Line continues to look decent. Dion Dawkins often doesn’t get credit but is easily a top-12 Tackle in pass pro. He’s extremely light on his feet and can anchor down in pass-pro. Run Blocking isn’t his strength, but he still elevates the run blocking altogether. Connor McGovern was paid decent money and shouldn’t hurt nor help this O-Line. He’s very well-versed in pass-pro but lacks run-blocking traits. Mitch Morse is one of the more intelligent Centers in the game. He’s undersized and lacks athletism but has terrific hands.

Ryan Bates is the listed starter, but I project O’Cyrus Torrence to start at some point. He’s just as good as Bates and has a far superior upside. Torrence is a massive Guard with surprising athleticism, and his game is very refined. He generates push with ease and can anchor down against a bull rush. As much as I think David Quessenberry should start, Spencer Brown likely gets handed the job again. Both are excellent run blockers who struggle in pass-pro, but Quessenberry is more refined. Brown still has elite upside heading into year three, as he’s a freak of nature. He has all the tools to develop but just hasn’t gotten there yet. He may break out this year and turn into a massive asset. However, it’s unfair to project that. The depth here is obviously a strength, and many people underestimate the difference good depth makes at this position.

Bills Defense

Overall Defense – 83.8 (3)

My defensive rankings typically don’t align with basic stats, but the Bills’ defense is really as good as the numbers say. In 2022, Buffalo ranked first in yards allowed and second in points allowed. The secondary had a lot to do with that. Tre’Davious White was a bit rusty in his six starts last year, but the elite traits are still clearly there. He’s perfect in this scheme as he has a high football IQ and outstanding man coverage skills. They drafted Kaiir Elam to be a stud number two Corner, hopefully. He has the traits to excel here and only needs to become more consistent and disciplined. Don’t be surprised to see Elam break out soon in this culture. Taron Johnson is the ideal guy to play the nickel in this defense. His run-defense skills are lackluster for a nickel guy, but he matches up well against your typical Slot Receiver. Dane Jackson and Christian Benford were also capable Corners when they were thrust into starting roles.

Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are the heart of this defense. Because it’s a quarters-heavy system, the Safeties play an enormous role in executing the coverage. Hyde and Poyer are both perfect scheme fits and allow this secondary to shutdown passers. Both have incredible communication skills and high-zone IQs. Hyde is a little bit better, but it’s still tough to challenge either of them. If there’s a way to slow down the Chiefs and Bengals’ offense, it’s by having an elite safety duo paired with an elite Corner. Damar Hamlin is miraculously returning, and he actually stepped up when the Bills needed him last year. Taylor Rapp was also signed and is very familiar with this system.

Despite losing Tremaine Edmunds, these Linebackers will get by. Matt Milano is coming off a fantastic season. While consistently being a top-ten coverage Linebacker, he’s also become a solid run defender. His range, paired with his coverage instincts, allow him to thrive as an off-ball Linebacker. He can play a middle read zone or match up one-on-one with a Tight End or back. Edmunds will be missed, but Dorian Williams is the ideal successor. That said, he is very undeveloped and will need time to grow. He isn’t a listed starter, but I imagine he’ll play soon into the year. The guy is a freak athlete with adequate size, similar to Edmunds. The third round is excellent value for someone who could be a star player. Terrel Benard is an intriguing, undersized Linebacker that impressed in run defense. He’s still very unproven and needs to develop in coverage.

Moreover, this D-Line will complement the secondary well. Having both a top-five secondary and pass rush makes it a nightmare to pass on this team. Von Miller, despite being 34, has evolved into a new player. He may have lost a step, but he has become a dominant power rusher. His strength has improved, and he still has a relentless motor. I was a massive Greg Rousseau fan when he came out. He has developed nicely here and is now a stud pass rusher. His length is absurd, and he gets an outstanding get-off for his size. Additionally, the depth at EDGE is a strength for the Bills. Guys like A.J. Epenesa stepped up when Miller went down and were fine players.

Ed Oliver was paid to continue to wreak havoc on the interior as a pass rusher. He may be inconsistent, but my god, does he flash dominant moments. His run defense skills are mediocre as he’s undersized, but that’s why guys like Tim Settle are here. Daquan Jones is a solid, balanced player who helps this run defense. Poona Ford is an excellent rotational guy as well. Like Oliver, he’s undersized, although he is a much more well-versed run defender. Settle is also an underrated interior guy who helps bolster the depth. Unlike many teams, the Bills will be fine if a D-Lineman goes down. Despite there being no true DC, I expect another outstanding year from this defense.

Bills Schedule

Total Win Projection – 11.2