Dallas Cowboys 2023 Preview: What’s Dak Prescott’s And Mike McCarthy’s Ceiling?

The Cowboys’ roster from top to bottom is impressive, and the leadership is there. However, Mike McCarthy is far behind the game schematically. It will take a drastic change in his offensive scheme for them to go far. Additionally, Dak Prescott is another one of those QBs who needs an excellent surrounding core to win the Super Bowl. This roster is fantastic, but I expect the play-calling to hold this team back, just like it did with Rodgers. Many Dallas fans have this impression that Dak is this top-eight QB, but that is just not the case. I talk about more in my QB Rankings, but each trait doesn’t stack up well with others. He is very dependent on the circumstances around him, though he plays exceptionally well when he’s on.

Besides the trades, Dallas had a quiet off-season but also retained some starters. I love the Mazi Smith pick, as they desperately needed interior help. That pick practically completed the defense, making for a borderline elite group. Trading for Stephon Gilmore was a phenomenal move, as he is still a star player in a critical position. Furthermore, trading for Brandon Cooks gives them a true deep threat outside C.D. Lamb. Cutting Zeke was inevitable, and they’ll be better off with Tony Pollard as the primary back. Moving on from Kellen Moore will likely haunt them, but it was still a beneficial offseason. As the NFC is wide open, the Cowboys could make some noise in the playoffs. They have a tough schedule but still have good odds of making it. I think their ceiling is a team who could get close to a Super Bowl but won’t ultimately finish.

I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.

Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

As many know, McCarthy parted ways with OC Kellen More over the offseason, and McCarthy will now be the offensive play-caller. Some Cowboys fans may be excited about this, but it’s not a good thing that he’s the new play-caller. He may be a fantastic leader and gets good development out of his players, but his outdated approach to football will not work to get these players to play at their best. That said, he could come out and run a completely new scheme that does work well. However, until I see it happen, I can’t expect it to be much different than his old scheme. One of the reasons Rodgers never won another Super Bowl with Green Bay is that McCarthy lacked innovation and creativity. It’s no wonder they went from 6-9-1 to 13-3 when LaFleur became coach. McCarthy ran a scheme that defenses caught up to, and it’ll be interesting to see how it’s changed.

When Moore was here, McCarthy oversaw the offense and had some say, but Moore was ultimately the play-caller. Moore showed a lot of creativity as a play-caller, and I’m hoping that rubbed off on McCarthy. Back in Green Bay, McCarthy primarily used zone running schemes but didn’t shy away from gap schemes. We’ll likely see about two-thirds of the runs be zone runs in 2023. McCarthy never bought into play-action or motion, although that can change. His passing concepts have also been very vanilla, and that was a strength of Moore which they’re losing. I don’t think McCarthy is awful as a play-caller, but this offense isn’t elite like it could be with a superb play-caller.

When Dan Quinn was first hired, he was expected to establish a simplistic Seattle cover-three scheme. However, he bought into multiple fronts and added an element of creativity to his defense. He saw he had something special in Micah Parsons and used him in a plethora of ways. We saw 3-4 fronts in addition to 3-3-5 odd packages, where Parsons played as a Hybrid Linebacker. Having the foresight he did isn’t something you see in most DCs. Dallas is fortunate he hasn’t left for a head coaching gig. It’s a single high secondary with mostly zone coverages. You also see a lot of press coverage where Diggs and Gilmore thrive. They ranked 13th in blitz percentage, so it’s a moderately blitz-heavy defense. The personnel fits what Quinn is trying to achieve here, which is lovely.

Cowboys Offense

Overall Offense – 81.5 (13)

Despite stale play-calling, the offense still looks excellent. Dak Prescott has flaws but can get the job done when things around him work. You see him have plenty of bad games, and that’s usually when someone’s hurt. However, he can be tough to stop when he’s on. He’s a very similar QB to Tua, except without the concussions. The talent around him on offense is sufficient for Dak to succeed. It’s just the depth isn’t good, so the starters must stay healthy, especially near the playoffs.

CeeDee Lamb is one of the few legitimate alpha Receivers in the league. With a lengthy build, he has excellent ball skills and an elite first step. He may be forced into the Slot due to the roster construction, but he is a dominant force when he gets going. Bringing in Cooks allows Dallas to have a vertical threat on the perimeter. Gallup is more of a possession Receiver, and Cooks still has threatening speed. The two of them will complement Lamb very well. The Receiver depth is worrisome, which could be an issue for Dak sometime in the year. Greg Dulcich may seem like a problem at Tight End, but he’s a promising player. He’s an undersized but athletic Wing Tight End with good receiving traits. There may be some issues as a run blocker, but he’ll be fine as a fourth weapon. There’s a good reason Dallas felt okay cutting Zeke, as Tony Pollard is a terrific back. He has the needed athletism and vision to succeed in a zone-running offense.

While Tyron Smith is injury prone, he is an elite run blocker when he’s in. He also is better than most at protecting the blindside. Many people overlook Smith because he isn’t often on the field, but he’s still a valuable asset to this team. Next to him at Guard is the young Tyler Smith, a former Tackle. He had a tremendous rookie campaign and improved in multiple areas. With elite physical traits, he could be an all-pro Guard sooner than later. Furthermore, Tyler Biadasz isn’t great or bad in any area. He’s just a solid starting Center. Zach Martin has regressed but is still a superstar talent at Guard. He may not be the same dominant run blocker, but it is still as steady as can be in pass-pro. Terence Steele is a mediocre pass-blocker at RT but is an exceptional run-blocker.

Prescott will have both excellent pass-pro and a legitimate rushing offense to rely on. This offense can compete in the playoffs, but will they make it to the Super Bowl? With an elite defense, it’s possible, but I’m betting against it. It’s still a highly talented offense that’ll be consistently efficient.

Cowboys Defense

Overall Defense – 83.6 (3)

I am excited to see an even better version of this defense than last year. With all their key players returning and two new massive additions, this defense will be daunting. Stephon Gilmore was traded for hardly anything and will be a borderline elite number-one Corner. It’s not like he’s an elite athlete anymore, although that doesn’t matter. His technique and IQ are what sets him apart. 

Additionally, Trevon Diggs is unarguably the best ball-hawking Corner in football. He gives up a lot of yardage, but his turnovers make up for it. Malik Hooker was one of the guys who looked promising early on, subsequently falling off a cliff. He then had a career resurgence under Quinn and looked like a quality single high Safety. Donovan Wilson and Jayron Kearse are two studs who’ll rotate in and out of Strong Safety. Both are stellar run defenders and are adequate in coverage. Jourdan Lewis is a serviceable slot Corner, and we also should see DaRon Bland in the Slot.

Moreover, the Linebacking crew is the only area you’re concerned about. Leighton Vander Esch had a bit of a bounce-back year last season. Although, he still isn’t exactly a strength for them. He’ll be decent in a sheltered coverage role. Next to him is Damone Clark, who is a question mark. He was fine for Dallas last year and is improving. It’s just he’s still unproven and will play a big role this upcoming season. The depth is also a bit problematic, but at least two young players have potential. With one of the best cultures, these Linebackers could take a step up, but they can’t rely on that happening.

After drafting Mazi Smith, this is one of the most favorable D-Lines in football. Of course, Micah Parsons is here who makes every bit of a difference, especially in the pass rush. Parsons completely changed this defense, as he’s a dominant force. He is as freakish as they come, with a 250 lb build, incredible raw power, and 4.4 speed. As talked about in my EDGE Rankings, he has a devastating bull rush and uses that to set up lethal spin moves. The various ways he can be used make for a troubling game plan. Playing next to him is Demarcus Lawrence, who’s been a star player for many years. He isn’t the same impact he used to be, but he is still an excellent number two pass rusher. Additionally, he is one of the best run-defending EDGEs in the NFL. There’s a deep room of quality EDGEs behind him too. Dorance Armstrong is a good third EDGE, and Sam Williams is another young EDGE with potential.

Furthermore, the two interior starters are ideal for this defense. Osa Odighizuwa is the perfect guy to run on stunts and all the blitzes Quinn loves to run. He’s an explosive pass rusher and a good run defender as well. Mazi Smith will play primarily as the Nose Tackle but also should play a little three-tech. Smith is one of the best block shedders I’ve evaluated, as he has the needed strength and agility. He’ll be a terrific run stuffer on day one and could develop into a monstrous two-way player. The depth isn’t great, but these starters shouldn’t have trouble staying healthy. I have no doubts this defense will create turnovers and keep the score low. However, it’s not going to be that kind of defense that carries the team to a Super Bowl like the 2016 Broncos.

Cowboys Schedule

Total Win Projection – 9.3