Denver Broncos 2023 Preview: Why Sean Payton Can Make A Dramatic Turnaround

Based on how last year turned out, it would be reasonable to assume Denver won’t be much better, especially in a loaded conference. However, there are many reasons to buy into this team. I am much higher on the Broncos than the consensus opinion, mainly due to how I view Sean Payton. I’ll get into Payton more later, but I believe he was worth every bit of the trade it took to get him. There’s a lot of controversy around that topic, and it seems people overlook the impact of a high-level play-caller and culture shifter. As we all know, Russell Wilson had a dramatic downfall last season. Denver is in a situation where they’ll be screwed if he doesn’t turn it around. Trading for Payton was wise as he is genuinely their best hope.

Russ may never be fully resurrected, but I think he can still play at a pretty high level. Denver spent a lot of money in the offseason, but you can argue it was necessary. The Zach Allen contract was a bit of an overpay, but they desperately needed an interior pass rush. Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers will make significant impacts as well. I liked their draft, but I also didn’t love it. Considering the Payton acquisition, though, it was a very beneficial off-season. My big question is how this culture will improve and how Russ will bounce back. It could be a remarkable turnaround, or it could just be another disappointing year. I will bet they turn things around just because of Payton’s resume of success as a play-caller. That said, it’ll be a tough road to the playoffs in the conference.

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Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

Sean Payton is a controversial figure in football. Many think he’s overrated and only won because of Drew Brees. Then others will praise him as an elite offensive mind. I have good reasons to believe the latter. Payton may have gone 7-9 three consecutive times, but his defense was abysmal then. It’s not like his offense wasn’t efficient, either. His offense was actually one of the best through those three years. His level of creativity and innovation is just not seen in the average play caller. One of Payton’s strengths is his ability to adapt to his personnel. With Brees, it was primarily a spread offense with few deep passing attacks. When he had Winston, we saw him try and attack the deep field more. One QB had a weak arm, while the other had a great arm, and he adjusted his playcalling accordingly.

Furthermore, Payton was one of the first play callers to start running rub routes. He saw the loophole early on and didn’t hesitate to take advantage of it. His running scheme has traditionally been a gap scheme, but he started to run more zone schemes late in his tenure with New Orleans. While there’s a good amount of screens in this offense, there isn’t a lot of play-action. Since Russ has been accustomed to a different scheme his whole career, it’ll be fascinating to see how he plays in this offense. Payton will likely develop a slightly different scheme than we’ve seen, so it can better suit Russ. Not to say it’ll be a wide-zone scheme, but we’ll likely see more deep attempts and play action.

Vance Joseph has gotten a lot of praise over the years, but I haven’t been impressed with him. Multiple coaches influenced him, but the most notable one was Wade Philips. His defense is a 3-4 front with very match-heavy coverages. He likes to use pre-snap rotations with his Safeties, where they’ll play a variety of coverages. Joseph also loves to blitz, especially on third down. In 2022, he was second in blitz percentage at 34.5%. In theory, this scheme can be highly challenging to play against. However, he never executed this scheme too well with Arizona. With better personnel, the defense shouldn’t have as many ugly moments compared to Arizona. I don’t think Joseph doesn’t deserve a DC job, although it seemed strange Payton chose him. He’ll likely do a fine job, but he isn’t someone who makes the team much better.

Broncos Offense

Overall Offense – 82.5 (10th)

I am a fan of the weapons here, and the additions to the O-Line, make for an exciting offense. Wilson doesn’t have to be an elite player for them to win games. They’ll be well off as long as he’s efficient and limits his mistakes. Russ is playing in a very QB-friendly scheme, and I expect him to play more like a high-end starter this year. The receiving core here is plenty sufficient for an efficient passing attack. The problem is that there’s no alpha Receiver or an actual Slot. It’ll be interesting to see how Payton works around this. Jerry Jeudy may never be an alpha, but he flashed some impressive moments last season. He could step up and take this receiving game to the next level. However, that’s a big if.

Courtland Sutton is practically the X-Receiver here. You could do much worse, but you’re not too excited about that. Greg Dulcich is an intriguing young Tight End who could brake out under Payton. Payton loves to involve Tight Ends in his offense, so look for him to step into a significant role. Javonte Williams is coming back from injury and should be the primary back. We also should see Samaje Perine in short-yardage situations. The run game will be adequate to support the passing attack, although it won’t be a strength.

I have high hopes for this O-Line coming into the season. Garett Bolles often doesn’t get discussed, and he’s a legitimate franchise Left Tackle. He is consistent and steady in pass-pro and run-blocking. On the opposite side is the newly acquired Tackle, McGlinchey, a highly talented run blocker. He isn’t the best in pass-pro, but he’s gradually improved over the past two years. Although, he isn’t the same run blocker he was a few years ago. Ben Powers was another addition who was an exceptional pass-protector. He may not be a good run blocker, but he had a borderline elite year in pass-pro. Quinn Meinerz is the total opposite, as he’s primarily a run blocker. He has excellent physical traits and will only get better. Additionally, Lloyd Cushenberry is a quality pass protector at Center with impressive awareness.

This offense should be tremendously efficient if Wilson just plays 90% of his old self. With an excellent O-Line, a QB who could still have some talent left, and an elite play-caller, the offense in 2023 should be a significant improvement from 2022.

Broncos Defense

Overall Defense – 79.3 (24th)

Despite a question mark at Cornerback, this secondary is in fantastic shape. Pat Surtain is an ascending superstar and should fit this scheme very well. He’s brilliant in match coverage and has stellar man coverage skills. Justin Simmons at Safety is another piece you feel great about. He is an intelligent and instinctive player. Next to him is Kareem Jackson, who’s still a solid impact, although he’s 35. He may be a shell of himself, but he at least played well last year. My concern is Damarri Mathis, who’s a replacement-level starter. He’s at least young and could improve, but he could very well get picked on. In the nickel, K’Waun Williams is a stud player who’s a good run defender. The secondary depth is worrisome, so these starters must stay healthy. If they can, this will undoubtedly be a massive strength for Denver.

Moreover, this Linebacking room looks solid. Josey Jewell is a quality run defender and is fine in coverage. Alex Singleton is a balanced Linebacker coming off a strong season. Drew Sanders is an exciting prospect with a ton of potential. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be used as a Blitzer in year one. He can grow into a full-time role in a year or two. This Linebacking group won’t be a strength, but I expect them to hold up.

Furthermore, the D-Line will support the secondary well. It’s not like this is a great pass rush, but it’s sufficient for a talented secondary to succeed. The pass rush pressure will also be amped up with the various blitzes. If Randy Gregory can stay healthy, he’ll be an adequate number-one pass rusher. However, he is very likely to miss some games. Baron Browning is an intriguing converted EDGE with elite athleticism. He used to play off-ball Linebacker and thrives as a 3-4 OLB in Denver. I see why they targeted a 3-4 mind. Zach Allen was brought in to fill the void of Dre’Mont Jones and should give the same level of impact. He had a good year in Arizona but is ideally a second D-Tackle. If he continues to grow, he could live up to the contract they gave him. D.J. Jones is a quality run stuffer who’ll be the nose tackle here. Additionally, they have solid depth on the interior. I like this D-Line, although it doesn’t stack up too well compared to others currently.

Broncos Schedule

Total Win Projection – 8.8