No one can argue that QB is by far the most crucial position on the field. It’s also one of the most fun positions to rank and discuss. The media often presents QB rankings in this order that represents where they lie based on general stats and team success. I go about ranking QBs in a completely different fashion.
As you’ll see, I grade each relevant trait, and using the formula I created, an overall gets spit out. These overalls are how the players get ranked. The article’s goal is to give the reader a comprehensive overview of every relevant QB in the NFL and show where they compare to others. This is part one of a three-part series. I suggest reading part two at the end of this.
The order was assembled considering the QB’s on-field performance (from ‘all-22-film’) in relation to their surrounding circumstances while reconciling their film with multiple forms of advanced analytics. Performances and stats from the past three seasons are considered, and younger QBs will have their college evaluation taken into account.
QBs with the plus sign (+) are players expected to improve this season. QBs with the (!) sign are injury risks. It is important to note that whatever impact a QB has on their team’s culture is not factored into their grade. Rookies from 2023 are omitted, as it isn’t exactly fair to compare them to current NFL starters when none of them have NFL film to go off of. My QB rankings for the 2024 NFL draft can be found here.
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QB Formula key
Individual Trait Scale: 1-7
OVR Scale: 15-100
PRO – Pro Style Scheme
SPRD – Spread Scheme
PA – Play-Action/ Wide Zone Scheme
RUN – Rushing Grade
SPD – Speed
ACC – Acceleration
AGI – Agility
ARM – Arm Strength
REL – Throwing Release
TWM – Throw While Moving
TUP – Throw Under Pressure
SAC – Short Accuracy
MAC – Intermediate Accuracy
DAC – Deep Accuracy
PRC – Processor
DEC – Decision Making
PA – Play-Action
SPR – Sense Pressure
ELU – Elusiveness/ Balance and Strength
SEC – Ball Security
Sam Howell is one of the most fascinating players on this entire list. Not many QBs have the physical tools Howell has, yet he just doesn’t seem to have that ‘it’ factor. While capable of making some ridiculous plays that few others could make, he’ll dig his team in holes by making errant throws or taking unnecessary sacks. The big issue with Howell is that most of the time, he’s oblivious to the rush or holds on to the ball too long. If he gets a clean pocket, you’ll see him fire accurate missiles all over the field. It’s just you can’t expect to have perfect pass-pro every play. Overall, Howell has some redeeming traits, but his inability to consistently get through his reads and have good awareness in the pocket holds him back from being a starter.
If you’ve seen my previous QB rankings, you’ll know I’m a big fan of Gardner Minshew. He’s bounced around the league a ton and has had many ups and downs. In Indy, he was in a good situation where he could get the ball out quickly and rely on his first read consistently. Over the years, he’s developed a better processor and has improved at bailing clean pockets. He’ll step up in the pocket when he needs to and has a knack for extending plays. While limited by his weaker arm, he’s learned how to live with it recently and limits his risks downfield. As a bridge starter, there aren’t many better options than Minshew, and he should allow Las Vegas to at least win some games this year.
There wasn’t another QB I was less excited to watch than Joe Flacco. After watching his film, I came away impressed. While he may be boring, he does an excellent job of pushing the ball downfield for being a backup. He still has an above-average arm paired with a nice deep ball. I also liked how he was able to navigate the pocket while hindered by his mobility. At his age, he doesn’t have much play-extension ability and is still prone to poor decisions which is why he’s in the bottom tier. Flacco may have had some flashy moments last season, but at the end of the day, he’s a backup. Granted, he’s a damn good backup, which is something Indy needs.
Jake Browning had an intriguing season stepping in for Joe Burrow to say the least. Even though he’s a backup, I consider him one of the most relevant ones, due to the moments he flashed in 2023. He averaged over ten yards a throw during a two-week stretch against Jacksonville and Indianapolis. In those games, he demonstrated stellar pocket presence, accuracy, and decision-making. He then proceeded to flip a U-turn two weeks later, throwing five turnover-worthy plays in one game.
If he can tap into those moments he flashed, this is a legit starter we’re talking about. It’s unlikely he ever becomes one, but it’s also good to know your backup can play at a high-end level. With the mixture of good and bad from Browning, I view him in the fringe starter/ backup tier. Like Ryan Fitzpatrick, he can be a bridge starter down the road. In the modern NFL, those players are valuable.
There are some reasons to think Daniel Jones can be fine as your starter, but ultimately he shouldn’t be a part of the long-term plan. While he can process the defense better than most and execute all the simple short passes, he lacks play extension ability and rarely makes plays deep. His skill set is best as a backup or bridge starter. That isn’t because he sucks or anything. It’s just you want a QB who can elevate the offense, and Jones doesn’t do that. He’ll certainly help New York remain mildly competitive, but they’re not winning a Super Bowl with Jones. While all these other teams are moving on from their QBs and drafting new ones, New York stuck with Jones, which limits them until they make a move.
Few QBs have had as unique of a career as Baker Mayfield has. After a long journey of ups and downs, he found himself under Dave Canales in Tampa Bay. This was the ideal scenario for Baker, and he made the most of it. He finally was able to play in the rhythm of the offense and had a consistent stretch where he wasn’t turning the ball over twice a game. Mayfield doesn’t often get enough credit for the arm talent he has. While his release is a bit windy, he fires lasers over the middle. His deep ball could still use some work, but for just a bridge QB, Baker has all the traits you’d want. You can say he wasn’t worth the contract he got, but ultimately Baker was a better option than any of the QBs available to them this year.
I was much higher on Will Levis last draft season than the consensus was. Having high hopes, he met my expectations, and if just a few things improve, I feel confident he’ll be a star. Levis is around the top ten in the league coming to strictly physical traits. He makes throws only maybe five other QBs are capable of making. He comes in so low mostly due to his lack of pocket presence and poor intermediate accuracy. In 2023, Levis had under a 50% adjusted completion rate on intermediate throws. Additionally, there were countless times he didn’t feel the rush coming and got hit as he threw. If he can manage to just have decent pocket presence and improve his accuracy over the middle, he could be a top-ten QB. He has all the weapons to make that happen, and we’ll ultimately know if he’s going in that direction or not by the end of the year.
Bryce Young has been written off as a bust by many at this point, although, after watching the all-22, I firmly believe he’ll have a good season in 2024. I watched his worst-graded PFF game and best-graded PFF game. While the stats and analytics aren’t in Bryce’s favor, the all-22 showed a QB with confidence and poise in the pocket and all-around good accuracy. Many of his misses came from miscommunications with the Receiver or were just throwaways.
Bryce needs to get better at identifying coverages and attacking them accordingly. That’s where many of his picks came from, and if he can get better at that, he won’t be digging his team further into holes. Carolina trotted out backup-level guards and had no deep threat on offense whatsoever last year. Additionally, the play-calling did him no favors. He was set for failure last year, but in 2024, Dave Canales will implement an offense that’s perfect for Young. They’ll also have a significantly better O-Line, and I’d be surprised if Young doesn’t bounce back dramatically.
The one thing that gives me the most hope for Young is that even late in the season, his confidence never wavered. That shows a tough-minded character and gives me every reason to believe he’ll succeed. He still has to improve, but I’d bet on that happening under Canales.
Anthony Richardson may have only had 98 dropbacks in 2023, but in those few snaps, he showed significant improvement in several areas. The development he showed was subtle and wasn’t reflected in the stat sheet. He went from relying on scrambling after the first read wasn’t there to actually going through his full progressions. Additionally, he seemed to have a better pocket presence as he’d make subtle moves in the pocket to navigate the rush. He still bails from clean pockets and doesn’t consistently sense blindside pressure. However, he showed slight improvement which is all you can ask for.
The next big leap I’d like to see from Richardson is to improve his accuracy in the short-intermediate range. He could also grow to have a more consistent deep ball, although, he’s already capable of throwing some lethal moon balls. The physical traits of AR are unlike anything we’ve ever seen for a QB in our generation. The fact he showed incremental improvement is quite frightening for the league. If he can learn to slide and stay healthy, I feel Richardson will become elite soon.
Derek Carr has been one of the most frustrating QBs to watch at times over the past few years. That said, he has good physical traits and is more accurate than most NFL starters. When surrounded by high-end talent, Carr gets the job done for the most part, but even then, he still leaves meat on the bones. In crucial situations where the team needs a big play, he’ll check it down instead of taking a shot. He also had some of the worst pocket presence I’ve seen in an NFL vet last year. I’d see him just sit still in the pocket while the rush was right in his face. He may have many things he does well, but it was a mistake for New Orleans to pay him a massive contract. On the bright side, he makes the team somewhat competitive, which is better than what some of the QBs on this list do.
I see why Bears fans wanted Justin Fields to stay so bad. He’s genuinely one of the most fun players in the league and showed incremental improvement year by year. The fact of the matter is, Caleb Williams happened to be available to them who’s already better than Fields and is four years younger. When just looking at physical traits alone, no one can argue Fields is outstanding. He also has one of the most dangerous deep balls in the league right now.
The problem is that he lacks an ideal-level processor for the pros and still struggles with mechanics. He’ll straight-up miss easy throws short or over the middle due to poor throwing mechanics. His pocket presence is also lacking at times, and the fact he holds on to the ball for so long makes him vulnerable to sacks. With all those negatives, he still managed to play decently well, and that’s because he had several trump cards to rely on. Say what you will about all the cons to Fields, but if he keeps improving, he can be a top ten QB someday. Now that he’s in Pittsburgh with phenomenal coaching and a solid surrounding offense, I have a feeling Fields might break out this year.
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