FBI’s 2024 NFL QB Rankings – Top 31 (Part Three)

No one can argue that QB is by far the most crucial position on the field. It’s also one of the most fun positions to rank and discuss. The media often presents QB rankings in this order which represents where they lie based on general stats and team success. I go about ranking QBs in a completely different fashion.

As you’ll see, I grade each relevant trait, and using the formula I created, an overall gets spit out. These overalls are how the players get ranked. The article aims to give the reader a comprehensive overview of every relevant QB in the NFL and show where they compare to others. This is the final part of a three-part series. I suggest reading part two if you haven’t already.

The order was assembled considering the QB’s on-field performance (from ‘all-22-film’) in relation to their surrounding circumstances while reconciling their film with multiple forms of advanced analytics. Performances and stats from the past three seasons are considered, and younger QBs will have their college evaluation taken into account.

QBs with the plus sign (+) are players expected to improve this season. QBs with the (!) sign are injury risks. The general stats listed are per PFF and only include regular-season games. It is important to note that whatever impact a QB has on their team’s culture is not factored into their grade. Rookies from 2023 are omitted, as it isn’t exactly fair to compare them to current NFL starters when none of them have NFL film to go off of. My QB rankings for the 2024 NFL draft can be found here.

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QB Formula key

Individual Trait Scale: 1-7

OVR Scale: 15-100

PRO – Pro Style Scheme

SPRD – Spread Scheme

PA – Play-Action/ Wide Zone Scheme

RUN – Rushing Grade

10. Jordan Love

Things were looking worrisome for Jordan Love to start the year but around week nine, something began to click and he suddenly looked like a top-five QB. Before week nine, he bailed from clean pockets, sailed many passes, and made mind-numbing decisions. The fact he went from that to carrying his team to the divisional round is unbelievable. The big shift seemed to have come from his confidence and calmness in the pocket. He looked significantly more poised under pressure and gained a much more natural feel for the game.

One thing that impressed me about Love’s development is how well he throws with touch. Most young, inexperienced QBs just throw fastballs every single time. Love understands the Receiver’s leverage against the DB and throws accordingly. He also has a ridiculously quick reaction time to recognize when pressure comes in and either eludes it or throws it away. Seeing him play within the offense’s rhythm and have smooth transitions from read to read was pleasing. Besides a few plays in the second half of the year, Love had flawless decision-making. If he can clean up the screw-it throws, and remain consistent, I have no doubts he’ll be one of the few elite QBs.

It’s noteworthy to say that in some of Love’s best games, he was throwing against air for the most part. Receivers were so open, that he didn’t have to anticipate much nor be too precise with his ball placement. The major thing I want to see from Love going forward is to show he can play well even when things are going south. The mistake he made in the divisional round at the end was undoubtedly a rough one. However, it’s not like he crumbled because it was the playoffs or anything. He made the same mistake multiple times before that one, but he just needs to learn when not to play hero ball. Even if Love is just a fraction of what he showed at times last year, he’s still a terrific QB. Green Bay fans probably hated Love at first but now they couldn’t be any more glad they got him. I’d be stoked to be a Packers fan heading forward.

9. Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray at a point was the most unrightfully hated player in the entire NFL. Even now, he is still vastly underrated. However, many analysts have woken up to Kyler being a franchise QB since his return to football. The Cardinals had the single worst roster in the league heading into 2023. Johnathon Gannon coached up the roster pretty well, but it was still a rough circumstance, especially considering he just came off a torn ACL. All things considered, Kyler played better than how most other starting NFL QBs would’ve played with that roster. It was a small sample size, but he showed better decision-making than he’s ever had in his career last season.

Since the torn ACL, Kyler is ever so slightly less explosive than he used to be. I still believe there isn’t a player who accelerates out of their stance as quickly as Kyler. Pair that trait with above average ability to sense pressure and you have a QB who can still thrive with a subpar O-Line. Something Kyler used to flourish in was throwing deep. Since 2022, he’s lost confidence in throwing deep and struggles with ball placement. With a new coach and culture, I foresee him regaining some of that confidence he showed a few years ago. If he gets his deep ball back and continues developing his processor, Kyler will return to competing for MVPs again.

Most fans have completely forgotten the fact that Kyler was an MVP front-runner well into the season just a few years back. It’s not like he’s shown a significant deal of regression since then. He was just given an awful head coach and when the roster around him regressed, things were much more challenging. Most good QBs would’ve also dropped off in terms of stats and efficiency when they were dealt that hand.

In my article, “Why Kyler Murray Is The Most Underrated NFL Player,” I talk about how he isn’t truly injury-prone. His ACL tear was a freak incident and I even heard a doctor say that. Kyler may be short, but he’s thick and can take hits. Besides, no one slides as good as Kyler. Since all the memes about him and call-of-duty, fans have gotten the wrong image of him. Many aspects of his game signal a very hard worker. It’s easy to sit there and make fun of him, but now that Kyler is fully healthy and has Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to, you’d be foolish to count him out of the MVP race.

8. Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence has recently received a bad rep and unrightfully so. While he hasn’t had the best team success with just decent numbers over the past two years, the film shows a QB with immense talent. He was labeled the golden boy for a reason. A QB rarely comes out with all the physical traits you could ask for along with stellar accuracy. Since entering the league, TLaw has shown excellent improvement in several areas. His processor went from being mediocre for college standards to above average in the pros. For his age, I couldn’t have been any more impressed with his pre-snap IQ. He’d recognize certain coverages and would change the play on his own to better attack that coverage. I’d like to see him throw with anticipation more often but very few players read the play and get the ball out as quick as Lawrence.

While he has a fantastic processor, his decision-making genuinely left me confused at times. I’m all for being aggressive as a QB but there’s a fine line between having balls and having an F-it attitude. He’d straight-up throw into double or triple coverage at times when it wasn’t even third down. The thing is, this trait can improve with more experience. It’s not like Trevor is dumb or anything. Give it until he’s older and I’d bet that’s no longer an issue for him.

Ball placement and general accuracy is an area in which Lawrence has particularly excelled in over the past two years. With his elite arm and instinctive feel for where to put the ball, he has exceptional control over the ball and puts it in the bread basket more often than not. He struggled with bouts of inaccuracy earlier on in his career but has cleaned that up a lot recently. It’s important to note, he had a poor success rate on intermediate throws in 2023. That was mostly due to coincidental factors such as throws where the DB made a good play on the ball or the fact he had a lot of intermediate targets under pressure.

I don’t see why Lawrence can’t be an elite QB sooner than later. It’s just he’s not quite there yet. Many don’t view Lawrence this highly because he isn’t the most efficient passer on paper. There was a clip I saw a while back of Lawrence making throw after throw that was incomplete for one reason or another that wasn’t his fault. For example, he’d make an incredible throw under pressure from one hash to the other deep downfield, and the ball placement would be perfect, but his Receiver wouldn’t get both feet in bounds. Casual fans don’t realize there is much out of control of the QB and Lawrence’s case is the perfect example of that. If you don’t believe Lawrence is absurdly talented, just wait until things fall in his favor and he has an MVP-caliber season.

7. Jalen Hurts

It may seem like Jalen Hurts regressed after breaking out in 2022. However, general stats don’t show the true picture, and I feel even better about Hurts than I did a year ago. He technically didn’t play as well, but he still showed just as much talent and skill as in 2022. It was more of a matter of the play-calling being poor. The one area Hurts struggles in is reading defenses and when the first read isn’t getting open as much, it led to many unsuccessful plays. When the play is designed well, it requires less processing of the defense. Now that Kellen Moore is the OC, Hurts can rely on his first read much more often.

While Hurts doesn’t have the best processor and holds onto the ball too long, he has exceptional decision-making. He has an excellent feel for when to take shots and when to scramble and doesn’t make turnover-worthy mistakes very often. Additionally, he is one of the best play extenders in the league. Rather than bailing the pocket to scramble, he gets outside the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield. Hurts doesn’t get pressured too often but when he does, he handles it better than most in the league.

One area Hurts has consistently excelled at is throwing anywhere past ten yards downfield. His ball placement on impact throws is a thing of beauty. He’ll just need to anticipate better to have even more success throwing in that range. Hurts does a terrific job of working off play-action. Now that Philly has Saquon Barkley, Hurts might be in for his best year.

It’s also worth saying Hurts has had a Super Bowl-caliber roster around him for two years and his job has been quite easy. He’s still made the most of it which is why he’s ranked this high, but I’d like to see Hurts learn how to play better when injuries start to stack up. Ultimately with the dual-threat ability and variety of areas Hurts thrives in as a passer, he’ll be a menace in the NFC for a while.

6. Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert was a unique evaluation as he has all the traits to be an elite QB but still lacks that little extra edge in his game. With one of the three or four best arms in football and decent mobility, Herbert is already a very mentally refined player. Although, he doesn’t grade out in the elite tier for two reasons. The most basic reason that can be improved relatively soon is the fact he doesn’t have quite as good accuracy as most of the QBs in the top ten. The other reason relates to his aggressiveness as a passer, specifically on critical downs. He’s recently become more aggressive, improving his ADT from 6.9 to 8.2, but he seemed to have left some meat on the bones on critical downs. It’s also hard to tell if his lack of aggressiveness is simply due to not having a true deep threat, but we’ll never know that trait is in him until we consistently see it.

Besides his lack of aggressiveness in those situations, Herbert has displayed some of the most wise decision-making of anybody in the past few years. He’s maintained a turnover-worthy play rate of about 2% over the past three seasons. That’s well above average. Hebert has also improved his processor drastically since entering the league even though he still hasn’t learned to regularly throw with anticipation yet. Unlike most QBs, he was able to go all of 2023 without having a below-average PFF grade. Overall, Herbert is much further along mentally than his similar-aged peers.

The biggest surprise from Herbert’s game, when I turned on the film, was how hard the guy is to sack. While he’s no Mahomes or prime Russell Wilson, he has incredible instincts in the pocket. I’d regularly see him either sense blindside pressure and bail the pocket or step up as the edges collapsed. He isn’t graded in the elite area for pocket presence as he lacks that mastered ability to manipulate rushers like Brady.

Herbert doesn’t have any traits he struggles with at this point. The fact he still could develop a better processor and improve his accuracy even more is frightening for the league. Where I draw concern with Herbert besides his lack of aggressiveness, is the scheme he’ll be playing in, this upcoming year. The Greg Roman scheme will perhaps be the worst possible offense for Herbert. What Herbert needs is an offense that opens up the passing game with a lot of shotgun and deep shots. Roman will utilize a very run-heavy offense that isn’t very aggressive in the passing game. I still think Herbert will succeed in this offense but I don’t feel good about LA’s Super Bowl odds with Roman as OC. Herbert could ultimately prove me wrong and adapt well to the new scheme, but we’ll have to wait and see. Just keep an eye out on how the new system impacts Herbert. It’ll be interesting to see play out.

5. Aaron Rodgers

Ranking Aaron Rodgers this high may seem outrageous following a torn Achilles. However, I have good reason to believe he’ll recover well and bounce back dramatically. Doctors have reported that the leg he tore his Achilles on will only primarily affect his mobility and barely affect his throwing power. If he tore his Achilles on the other leg, it would’ve impacted his throwing motion leading to arm talent regression. While his mobility will be shot compared to the old days, Rodgers can rely on the mental aspect of football to have the edge. As long as he can still push the ball downfield, Rodgers will get by with little to no mobility.

After his 2022 season, many fans have forgotten just how utterly dominant Rodgers was. It’s not like he regressed in 2022 either. He rather just had worse circumstances and had to throw with a broken thumb. It’s not like his accuracy suddenly plummeted and he forgot how to read a defense. Rodgers is still one of the sharpest players in general, around the league. I’d also be willing to bet he doesn’t have accuracy issues with the Jets barring another injury.

In Rodger’s back-to-back MVP stretch, he was near the top in big-time throw rate and at the bottom in turnover-worthy play rate. He simply knows how to create big plays and limit his mistakes simultaneously. Additionally, Rodgers is probably the most intelligent QB pre-snap in the NFL right now. He could genuinely be a coach out there and is a much better teammate than what fans tend to give him credit for. It’s no coincidence half the Packers roster followed him to New York.

The biggest reason I feel good about Rodger’s return to football is how he can manipulate the pocket. No one in football has a better feel and craftiness when navigating the pocket. His absurd reaction time and calmness allow him to flourish in that area. Rodgers will also have a fantastic deep O-Line to depend on. Fans thought he was crazy for wanting to come back, but with an inhuman kind of person like Rodgers, anything is in the cards. He’ll likely be rusty when he returns but give it a month or two, and Rodgers will have the New York offense looking better than it has in decades.

4. Josh Allen

When it comes to sheer physical traits, there isn’t another QB from recent memory who comes close to Josh Allen. His combination of size, arm talent, and explosiveness as a runner is one of a kind. However, there lies a significant hole in Allen’s game being his decision-making. For whatever reason, there are games where Allen seems to have no care for protecting the ball. All decision-making means is the ability to protect the ball as a passer and Allen continuously has bouts where he doesn’t do that. You could argue if it weren’t for games they lost where Allen turned the ball over several times, the Bills would’ve had a ring by now. At the same time, you can’t ignore what he’s done to get them into the playoffs every year.

While Allen has that one massive weakness, he has several trump cards to rely on. His raw arm strength is better than anything we’ve seen in this generation of football. Alongside that, he has a powerful release and has grown to have outstanding accuracy. He can read out the defense decently well, but he doesn’t even need to as he has such preposterous velocity and precise ball placement. As soon as he sees the Receiver open, he hits them on a dot. Allen also has proper aggressiveness as a runner when he’s on.

Something natural to Allen since the start of his career is pocket presence. Not only does he know how to properly navigate the pocket and make rushers miss, but he knows when there isn’t pressure. You see so many QBs nowadays bail from clean pockets and Allen doesn’t do this. With how big Allen is and the instinctive feel he has in the pocket, he is the hardest guy to sack in the league. In 2023, he was only sacked 24 times.

Something everyone is probably wondering is how Allen will fare with a mediocre Receiving core and less of a defense. He’s had Steffon Diggs to rely on most of his pro career and not to mention he lost Gabe Davis too. With how well Allen throws Receivers open, and how much of a threat he is as a runner, I’d imagine he still would look like a top-end QB. Will his numbers drop off? Probably yes, but Allen alone is enough to keep Buffalo relevant and in the playoff hunt. 2024 will be a challenge for Allen, but it’s no obstacle he doesn’t have the tools to conquer.

3. Lamar Jackson

The level of development Lamar Jackson has shown is arguably the most remarkable feat any QB has achieved on this list. He went from not knowing how to read a defense and having historically bad accuracy to being a two-time MVP in only six years. A QB who played as poorly as Lamar did his rookie year would’ve never been given another shot if it were ten years ago. Lamar himself was one of the main reasons the league shifted how they view college QB prospects.

Last year was an interesting MVP campaign for Lamar to say the least. If you hadn’t heard already, Lamar gained a pretty hefty amount of weight last year. While he wasn’t quite the same athlete, he was about 95% of what he was before and gained tremendous confidence and poise as a result of the weight gain. It was worthwhile for him to do that as having a full-fledged passing skillset is more sustainable than being mostly a scrambler. The thing is, Lamar reportedly dropped down from around 230 lbs to 205 lbs this offseason. It’s hard to say if he’ll still play with the same level of poise and comfortability in the pocket, but I just graded him based on last year.

If Lamar regains that world-class athleticism he had before and preserves the pros he got from gaining weight, I can’t imagine the type of unstoppable force he could become. He’ll also only continue to develop his processor as he gets older. In regards to strictly decision-making, Lamar has grown to have an excellent feel over the years for when to scramble and how to protect the ball.

No one in the league is nearly as good as Lamar at attacking the middle, especially off of play-action. In 2023, he had an unworldly 81 adjusted completion rate on intermediate throws. The next best was Kirk Cousins at 72.4. The film backs up those numbers too as he’d fearlessly fit the ball into ultra-tight windows. The deep ball is a bit of a different story. He’ll make some incredible throws when he’s on but still suffers from bouts of inaccuracy deep. However, his overall accuracy and ball placement are hard to knock.

With there being a few different aspects of Lamar’s game that could use improvement, you wouldn’t expect to see him ranked third, but he has certain traits that are so far and beyond everyone else, that he has an unparalleled advantage. You also must acknowledge the fact that he doesn’t play his best in the playoffs. He managed to play pretty damn well against a talented up-and-coming Texans team but failed to deliver in almost every other playoff game. That’s something I could see Lamar improving in, but it’s still a genuine concern until proven otherwise. At the end of the day, he puts the Ravens in a good position to compete every year which is worth a lot.

2. Joe Burrow

Many casual fans will believe Joe Burrow dropped off after last year. However, his calf strain hindered his play dramatically and by the time he healed, he injured his wrist. In all honesty, I’m not even accounting for the 2023 season in Burrow’s grade. It’s not fair to compare how an injured QB played with how QBs who were fully healthy played. Going off everything before that, Burrow is a world-class talent. He developed an elite processor faster than any other QB I’ve seen and has maintained some of the best decision-making in football for several years. No one currently in the league is farther along than Burrow is mentally.

His accuracy and touch have been out of this world since he came into the league. Burrow may have some limitations throwing deep but he couldn’t be any more precise in the short-intermediate range. If you want to nitpick his game, you can say he doesn’t have the best arm strength. Although, that’s something he’s worked around over the years. Moreover, he’s always had excellent chemistry with his teammates and I’d imagine he’s a rock in the locker room.

Burrow’s pocket presence is the closest I’ve ever seen to Brady and Rodgers. Like those players, Burrow has an innate feel for where the rush is coming and is masterful at using slight and subtle movements to manipulate rushers in the pocket. Something he said that always stuck with me was that sacks don’t matter on third downs. It’s true because as long as you’re not putting yourself out of field goal range, taking a sack doesn’t affect the next play if it’ll be fourth anyway.

Anyone who doesn’t view Burrow as elite must realize how much of a dumpster fire Cincy was before he arrived. He took them from the worst team to playing in a Super Bowl two years later. Adding Ja’Marr Chase certainly helped but that level of improvement doesn’t happen without a special QB. Burrow may not be the flashiest or most fun player to watch but in terms of straight-up efficiency, Burrow is in a league of his own. When he’s fully healthy and ready to go, I have no doubts he’ll return to stardom.

1. Patrick Mahomes

There’s no arguing this ranking. Patrick Mahomes is the most talented and skilled QB of our generation. That’s not to say he’s had the greatest career yet but in terms of pure traits and skills, no one from this generation besides prime Rodgers comes close. Mahomes isn’t this flawless QB with no weaknesses. He could improve in certain areas, but he has multiple world-class traits that compensate for any spots he isn’t elite at. To show what I mean, he doesn’t get through his progressions as fast as someone like Dak and doesn’t have the natural pocket sense of someone like Rodgers, but his arm talent makes up for his processor and his exceptional quickness compensates for his pocket presence.

Mahomes developing an elite processor someday isn’t out of the cards. If that were to happen, he’d be so far ahead of everyone else that he’d break my scale, meaning his overall grade would be maxed out. In addition to having all the arm talent in the world, Mahomes has phenomenal accuracy at all three levels. An aspect of his game that doesn’t get much attention is how he takes calculated risks, akin to Rodgers. You’ll still see the occasional poor decision in traffic, but he does an excellent job of not turning it over.

The best thing about Mahomes isn’t the physical traits or how far his intangibles have come, but rather how clutch he is. He’s appeared in four Super Bowls and won three of them by no coincidence. While he had a fantastic surrounding core earlier in his career, he proved he could win a Super Bowl with one of the worst weaponry groups in the league. The sensational talent has a ton of time left and we all must realize how fortunate we are to witness his greatness.