It may be surprising to see Jacksonville ranked this low, but various issues on the roster drag them down. The head coach and Quarterback are a lethal combination, but this roster isn’t that great compared to others. Trevor Lawrence arrived as the golden boy we all expected to see coming out. I was initially skeptical of the Doug Pederson hire, but he’s turned out to be an excellent head coach. The issues come from a lack of depth, and no elite players are on the roster. There are undoubtedly some high-end starters here, but all of the top teams have at least one elite player to rely on. Unless someone takes a massive step up, that’ll be a prevailing issue all year.
Lawrence will at least have exceptional weapons to throw to, but the O-Line isn’t in great shape. Losing Jawaan Taylor is a massive blow to this team, but they replaced him well with Anton Harrison. Trent Baalke has made a handful of questionable moves over the past two years, and those moves will likely hold this team back. This team can still easily win their division, and it’ll at least be an exciting team to watch in the playoffs.
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Grading scale: 20-100.
(+): The player is expected to improve.
| Power Ranking – 19 | OVR Grade – 80.2 | Projected Wins – 8.9 |
| HC – Doug Pederson | OC – Press Taylor | DC – Mike Caldwell |
Doug Pederson looked like the primary reason for Philadelphia’s downfall years ago. However, he bounced back as quickly as he possibly could’ve. When Jacksonville was down about 30 points in the playoffs against LA, he got the team to fight back and win the game. It was one of the most remarkable examples of perseverance and grit ever. His scheme stems from the Andy Reid lineage of offense. That means a lot of quick-hitting passes, screens, and RPOs. You see a good balance of gap and zone-run schemes in Pederson’s offense. In 2022, Lawrence had about 60% of passes go short and had the second most screen attempts. It’s a scheme that fits Lawrence well and is tough to defend in the NFL.
Mike Caldwell runs a unique scheme that’s very blitz-heavy. His scheme is influenced by Todd Bowles, who was an excellent mentor to him. He worked under Bowles in New York as well as in Tampa Bay. It’s a 3-4 front that uses various blitzes. It’s very confusing to play against, even against veteran QBs. Furthermore, the coverage scheme is relatively balanced. It’s a very high-upside scheme though it can lead to some ugly plays when poorly executed. The system fits fine with their personnel and makes for a highly entertaining defense to watch.
| Playcalling – 83 (T15) |
| Scheme – Spread-Coast |
| QB – 82.6 (9) |
| Trevor Lawrence (+), C.J. Beathard, Nathan Rourke |
| Receiving Options – 82.1 (18) |
| WR1 – Calvin Ridley, Tim Jones, Seth Williams WR2 – Zay Jones, Kevin Austin Jr. SWR – Christian Kirk, Jamal Agnew, Parker Washington TE – Evan Engram, Brenton Strange, Luke Farrell, Gerrit Prince FB – Derek Parish HB – Tavis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson, Snoop Connor |
| Pass-Pro – 77.6 (18) |
| LT – Cam Robinson, Walker Little LG – Ben Bartch, Blake Hance C – Luke Fortner, Tyler Shatley RG – Brandon Scherff, Chandler Brewer RT – Anton Harrison (+), Josh Wells HB – Tavis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson, Snoop Connor |
| Run Blocking – 73.0 (31) |
| LT – Cam Robinson, Walker Little LG – Ben Bartch, Blake Hance C – Luke Fortner, Tyler Shatley RG – Brandon Scherff, Chandler Brewer RT – Anton Harrison (+), Josh Wells TE – Evan Engram, Brenton Strange, Luke Farrell, Gerrit Prince FB – Derek Parish |
| Run Options – 83.2 (13) |
| HB – Tavis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson, Snoop Connor FB – Derek Parish |
Trevor Lawrence is a fantastic guy to lead the team. Additionally, the surrounding playcalling and weapons are terrific. The primary issue is the O-line. The pass-pro will be sufficient for Lawrence to do his thing as a passer. However, the run blocking isn’t ideal for this offense to succeed. Multiple linemen are borderline liabilities in the run game. Evan Engram doesn’t help things either, as he is only here to be a receiving threat. You can at least expect this offense to have a stellar passing game which is most important. Calvin Ridley is returning from suspension and should be a highly dangerous weapon to rely on. Christian Kirk may be overpaid, but he is one of the best Slots in the league.
Travis Etienne is another dynamic playmaker who impacts the running and passing game. Cam Robinson is a quality starting Left Tackle, but he’s reportedly been suspended for possibly up to six games. Walker Little is at least a tremendous backup Tackle but not the same as Robinson. If some guys on the interior step up, this O-Line won’t be in that rough shape, but until then, that is where I project them. It’s an offense that will succeed, but it’s not like I envision them making a Super Bowl run with this offense.
| Coaching – 79 (T24) |
| Scheme – Attacking 3-4 |
| Secondary – 77.3 (26) |
| CB1 – Tyson Campbell, Chris Claybrooks CB2 – Darious Williams, TeVaughn Campbell SCB – Tre Herndon, Christian Braswell FS – Andre Cisco, Andrew Wingard, Thomas Daniel SS – Rayshawn Jenkins, Antonio Johnson |
| Pass Rush – 79.1 (25) |
| ED1 – Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chairsson, Yasir Abdullah ED2 – Travon Walker (+), Jordan Smith, De’Shaan Dixon IDL1 – Roy Robertson-Harris, DeVon Hamilton, Michael Dogbe IDL2 – Folorunso Fatukasi, Adam Gotsis, Tyler Lacy |
| Off-Ball Linebacker – 76.6 (18) |
| LB1 – Devin Lloyd (+), Chad Muma, Shaquille Quarterman LB2 – Foyesade Oluokun, Ventrell Miller |
| Run Defense – 80.3 (8) |
| ED1 – Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chairsson, Yasir Abdullah ED2 – Travon Walker (+), Jordan Smith, De’Shaan Dixon IDL1 – Folorunso Fatukasi, Roy Robertson-Harris, Michael Dogbe IDL2 – DeVon Hamilton, Adam Gotsis, Tyler Lacy |
Jags fans would likely disagree with how I rank this defense, but it’s a rather underwhelming group of players compared to others. A few years ago, this would’ve been around the 20th-best defense, but there are more competitive teams than ever in the modern league. Tyson Campbell is an underrated player but isn’t the best number-one Corner. He’d ideally be a number two in a defense. I love Darious Williams, but he isn’t an ideal scheme fit. He should be playing in an off-coverage system. Moreover, the depth in the Corner room is worrisome. While the Safety room is deep, it lacks a true stud player to hang their hat on. That said, Andre Cisco could take a step up, or Antonio Johnson could reach his potential.
Josh Allen is a noteworthy star who had an excellent year as a run defender in 2022. Travon Walker could have a breakout year, as he has the tools to become elite. However, he is very unproven and needs a lot of work before that happens. Folorunso Fatukasi had a down year, but I still consider him one of the best run stuffers. Foyesade Oluokun is an exceptional Linebacker in coverage and improved his run-defense skills last year. They also have Devin Lloyd, who was up and down in 2022. Hopefully, he becomes more consistent so they can have a position group to depend on. I don’t expect this defense to be poor by any means, but when it gets to the playoffs, how well will they hold up?
| Special Teams – 78 |
| K – Brandon McManus P – Logan Cooke LS – Ross Matiscik KR – Jamal Agnew, JaMycal Hasty PR – Jamal Agnew |
Total Win Projection – 8.8
| WK | Jacksonville | Win % |
| 1 | @ Indianapolis | 57% |
| 2 | vs Kansas City | 33% |
| 3 | vs Houston | 67% |
| 4 | vs Atlanta | 80% |
| 5 | @ Buffalo | 20% |
| 6 | vs Indianapolis | 80% |
| 7 | @ New Orleans | 50% |
| 8 | @ Pittsburgh | 43% |
| 9 | BYE | |
| 10 | vs San Francisco | 33% |
| 11 | vs Tennessee | 67% |
| 12 | @ Houston | 67% |
| 13 | vs Cincinnati | 33% |
| 14 | @ Cleveland | 33% |
| 15 | vs Baltimore | 33% |
| 16 | @ Tampa Bay | 57% |
| 17 | vs Carolina | 67% |
| 18 | @ Tennessee | 57% |
The Jags are in one of the worst divisions in football; therefore, the path to the playoffs is easy. The only question is how well this team will perform when it matters most. I expect them to be a tough out, even against some of the top teams, as Trevor Lawrence could keep them in any game. This should be a highly entertaining team with Calvin Ridley returning to football. Despite their power ranking, I still think highly of this team and expect them to run away with the division.
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