Few prospects are as exciting as Linebacker Payton Wilson, but with his flashy traits also come some serious red flags. Wilson wasn’t getting much first-round buzz until he ran a Receiver-like forty time at 4.43. With the ideal size to play Linebacker in the pros and the speed to run with practically any Tight End, he is just what modern defenses look for. In addition to having some of the best top-end speed for Linebacker, he is quite fluid and quick for his size. Wilson also checks every box when it comes to analytics.
It’s his extensive injury past and age that makes him more of a day-two kind of guy rather than a true first-rounder. We’d easily be looking at a top-20 pick if not for that. However, those two things get strongly considered when making a first-round selection. Still, this is one of the most intriguing prospects this year due to his rare blend of size and athleticism. In this article, we’ll try to assess what his true value is despite having multiple red flags.
Four all-22 games and his highlights were evaluated, and clips from his film are broken down here. All relevant traits were graded based on his film. His scouting report also factored in stats and analytics, such as PFF grades. Use promo code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Please gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.
| Profile |
|---|
| 2nd LB / 2nd RD | 6’4″ / 233 | RSx2-SR | NC State |
| Pro Comp |
|---|
| Blake Cashman |
| Scheme |
|---|
| Will/ Hybrid |
LB Stats
| 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT – 37 REC – 24 | TD – 0 YDS – 221 | INT – 3 FF – 2 | TKL – 138 TFL – 17.5 | PRS – 22 SK – 6 |
| 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT – 25 REC – 20 | TD – 2 YDS – 190 | INT – 1 FF – 0 | TKL – 82 TFL – 12.5 | PRS – 29 SK – 4 |
Film Analysis
The clip above isn’t anything special, but Payton Wilson shows top-notch closing speed and takes a good pursuit angle on the QB. He quickly recognizes the scramble too.
Wilson shows off his pass rush ability here by generating a quick pressure on the QB. He blitzes the b-gap, does a nice job of finding a lane to the QB, and shows exceptional bend.
He shows impressive awareness and again has incredible closing speed in this one. Notice how he’s there to cover the back but then when the Corner comes to help, he immediately attacks the QB.
Grades
OVR Grade: 1-100
| Individual trait scale (1-7): |
|---|
| 7 – Rare world-class skill; best in the league and no room for improvement | 6 – Great-elite skill; one of the best at that given trait but still has some room to improve | 5 – Very good; above average and has potential to be elite | 4 – Average; able to suffice but, not ideal long-term | 3 – Below average; able to suffice at college level | 2 – Poor; hinders overall play and is a liability to the team | 1 – Awful; not good enough to play given position at any level above D2 | Note: Consistency plays a large factor. |
| Overall Draft grade scale (1-100, realistically: 57-87): |
|---|
| 86 – Perfect prospect | 81 – Likely all-pro | 80 – Bluechip prospect | 79 – Day one quality starter or superstar potential | 78 – Day one starter w/ all-pro upside | 77 – Day one starter w/ high-end upside | 76 – Day One Starter | 75 – Boom or bust | 74 – Will become quality starter within 2-3 years | 73 – Boom or bust (high risk) | 72 – Will become starter within 2-3 years | 71 – Day-one backup with starter upside |
SPD – Speed
ACC – Acceleration
AGI – Agility
STR – Strength
SIZ – Size
IQ – Football Intelligence
MAN – Man Coverage
ZCV – Zone Coverage
INS – Instincts
BKS – Block Shedding
PUR – Pursuit
TKL – Tackling
PRM – Pass Rush Moves
Traits/ Skills
(Grades are subject to change until draft day.)
| Traits | Immediate | Potential |
| SPD | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| ACC | 6 | 6 |
| AGI | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| STR | 4.5 | 5 |
| SIZ | 5 | 5 |
| IQ | 3.6 | 5.3 |
| MAN | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| ZCV | 4 | 6.2 |
| INS | 3.9 | 5.6 |
| BKS | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| PUR | 4.5 | 6.2 |
| TKL | 4.5 | 5.9 |
| PRM | 4.7 | 5.9 |
Payton Wilson’s Pros and Cons
Payton Wilson Bio
- The NFL values guys who can cover players, not grass, and that’s where Payton Wilson sticks out. With freakish speed and the ideal combo of size and fluidity, Wilson can be the precise Will Linebacker some teams need.
Pros
- Elite size-speed combo gives him the potential to be one of the best coverage Linebackers in the league.
- Ideal level of fluidity and change of direction ability to hang with Slots and backs.
- Thrived in man coverage and has the size to man up against Tight Ends.
- Despite average play strength, came away with 67 run stops in 2023.
- Good reaction time in run defense and coverage.
- Played a wide variety of coverages at NC State.
- Plays the run aggressively with a hot motor; he just needs to work on his gap discipline.
- Physical and a sure tackler – under five percent missed tackle rate.
- Feisty pass rusher who can win with both power and finesse.
Cons
- Very short arms which limit his stack-and-shed ability and make it harder to tackle.
- Isn’t the best at recognizing play-action; bites down the vast majority of times and gets out of position in coverage.
- Mediocre ability to defend the run as he has poor gap discipline and doesn’t take on blocks the best.
- Sixth-year Senior with significant injury issues.
Combine
40 yd: 4.43
Ten yd: 1.54
Shuttle:
Three Cone:
Broad Jump: 9’11”
Vertical: 34.5″
Bench:
Arm length: 30 1/2″
Hand Size: 9″
Pro Day
40 yd:
Ten yd:
Shuttle:
Three Cone:
Broad Jump:
Vertical:
Bench:
Arm length:
Hand Size:
All-22 Exposures:
- Louisville, 2023
- Notre Dame, 2023
- Virginia, 2023
- North Carolina, 2023
Final Conclusion on Payton Wilson
It’s hard not to be intrigued by a Linebacker with proper size and elite athleticism. At the same time, you have to acknowledge the risks of drafting Payton Wilson. Like Blake Cashman, his upside is immense, but who knows if he’ll ever really see the field for you. Additionally, he’ll be 24 as of draft day, which is pretty old for a guy who isn’t a day-one quality starter. While he can start day one, he still has a lot of flaws in his game and won’t be the impact you want out of a first-rounder. With many talented prospects without the baggage this year, spending a first on Wilson wouldn’t be wise. However, in the 35-50 range, it might be worth the gamble if you are desperate for a Linebacker.
The NFL will ultimately know best where to take him as they’ll have advanced medical reports on him. For my sake, I see a boom or bust prospect that brings a few positive things to the table on day one. He can be used as a blitzer and be manned up against backs and Tight Ends. Eventually, you hope he develops better play strength and learns how to defend the play-action game better, which would make him a suitable three-down Linebacker. The one thing you can’t deny about Wilson is how fun of a prospect he is. Say what you will about his bust potential, but I’d be happy to land this guy in the second just because of how freaky he is.
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