There are many reasons to buy into the Miami Dolphins. The offense is as entertaining as can be, and this defense is elite. However, Miami’s road to the Super Bowl is more challenging than some would think. Not only is the division absurdly difficult, but Tua Tagovailoa is an injury risk and could miss impactful games. Even when he’s healthy, he hasn’t entirely weeded out his inconsistencies. Although, he should improve, and the offense is not the same without him. His surrounding cast is excellent, and Tua will have no problem throwing 250+ yards a game. It’s just that when you are in this good of a conference, you can’t afford for the QB to miss games if you’re aiming for a Super Bowl.

I love how Miami recognized they were in a tight Super Bowl window and capitalized on the off-season. Trading for Jalen Ramsey will likely go down as a historically good move. He wasn’t elite last season but was still terrific and only 28. Furthermore, drafting Cam Smith as a Dime Corner and future starter was wise. Acquiring Deshon Elliot also filled a significant void for Miami. Additionally, signing David Long on a budget deal was one of the most underrated signings in the offseason. Altogether, it was a highly beneficial offseason which is exciting considering how good they were last year. Mike McDaniel and Tua will likely have another successful season. Although, I’m betting against them winning a Super Bowl.

I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.

Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

I was a massive fan of Mike McDaniel before he became a head coach, and he met my expectations last year. As a play-caller, he was creative, had rhythm, and called plays to his player’s strengths. However, he made some questionable game management calls as well. That was expected from someone as young as him, but he likely improves upon that as he goes on. Kyle Shanahan influenced him, and he runs practically the same offense. It has a little bit of added wrinkles, but it’s a very similar offense. In case you don’t know, it’s called a wide-zone offense. If you’d like to read in-depth about it, I recommend reading “A Comprehensive Deep Dive Into The Shanahan Style Offense.”

We’ll primarily see stretch runs, outside zone, toss cracks, and a lot of play-action. McDaniel prioritizes attacking the middle of the field in the passing game. In 2022, Miami had roughly 32% intermediate attempts. Like Shanahan, McDaniel is a very clever play-caller. He knows how to recognize the defense’s inherent weaknesses and attacks them. Because he has Hill and Waddle, most of his passing concepts are specifically designed to win with speed. While McDaniel is far from where Shanahan is, he has flashed moments of brilliance just like Shanahan did as a young play caller. Maybe he can become an elite offensive mind in a few years, which could make them true contenders.

Vic Fangio was another massive addition for Miami, who’ll implement a drastically different scheme than we saw last year. Fangio failed as a head coach, but you can’t deny his skill as a defensive coach. In 2022, Josh Boyer ran multiple fronts with heavy press-man coverage. Fangio will use a basic 3-4 front and run a lot of off-coverage. As much as the quarter’s heavy system got torched in 2022, Vangio differs from the others he influenced. Not only does Vangio bring an element of creativity to Blitzes, but he knows how to mix up the defensive calls. While many other DCs will heavily use cover four and cover six, Fangio uses everything. He uses a split-Safetey secondary and often has the same pre-snap look. Because so many coverages can be played out of the same pre-snap look, it can be perplexing to play against.

The staple of the Fangio defense is cover-six coverage which is basically quarters coverage on half the field. Branching off is a plethora of coverages such as cover two and cover one robber. You even see him play cover three out of a split-safety look. The fundamental principle of a lot of his coverage schemes is match coverage. Match coverage is zone coverage with a contingency. You see match coverage on cover six, cover four, and cover three buzz-match. There aren’t many 5+ men blitzes in this defense, but Fangio gets the job done with stunts and twists. He’s one of the best stunt callers in football, and watch out for Jaelan Phillips in particular. Fangio may have set a bad precedent in football, but Miami is fortunate to have him.

Dolphins Offense

Overall Offense – 81.7 (12)

At times in 2022, this offense was unstoppable. Tua and McDaniel was the perfect pairing to take the league by storm. I expect some regression to the mean, but it’ll still be a potent offense. The quarters-heavy system was exploited last year, and we likely see less of it. When defenses start playing fewer quarters coverage, I expect this offense to slow down a bit. Tua is a unique QB in that he doesn’t have desirable physical traits, yet he is one of the most accurate QBs in football. Additionally, he flashed elite anticipation and the ability to get through reads rapidly. Because his arm is relatively weak, it can be ugly when he’s off, but that only happened in two or so games. If Tua can stay healthy for a full season, I expect him to improve and possibly compete for a title.

The weapons he has to throw to are remarkable; there’s no better way to put it. The combo of Hill and Waddle makes for the most explosive group of weapons in the NFL. The two were menacing over the middle of the field last year. They were getting wide open and making plays after the catch. Hill’s speed alone makes a world’s difference in the passing game. While it’s a tough debate, Hill deserves the Receiver crown most. He opened up the passing game like no other player could and even became a legitimate contested catch target. Furthermore, Braxton Berrios is an underrated Slot Receiver and could have an impressive year in 2023. Even though Mike Gesicki wasn’t a significant part of this offense, losing him is a blow. Durham Smythe and Eric Saubert are the two Tight Ends and likely won’t be much but blockers. The depth at Receiver is at least good. As long as the two starters are healthy, this passing attack should be no concern.

The run game is where this offense will be worse off. The O-Line isn’t poor but also isn’t going to help the run game at all. They were after Dalvin Cook, but unfortunately, he reportedly didn’t want to join. Raheem Mostert is the listed starter, but I expect to see a lot of De’Von Achane. Mostert is up there in age and is due for some regression. Jeff Wilson is also here and could have a relatively big role too. All of these backs are exceptional scheme fits, but there’s no true lead back which is concerning.

Moreover, Terron Armstead, while injury prone, is a terrific player to have at Tackle. He is still a superb pass-protector and gets the job done as a run blocker. Austin Jackson is the listed RT, but I’d bet he plays Left Guard. It’s at least what makes the most sense, as Isaiah Wynn is better at Tackle than Liam Eichenberg is at Guard. Wynn had a down year but is still a solid starter. Plus, Jackson is better on the inside. At Center, Connor Williams is an underrated stud. He is one of the best wide-zone Centers in the league, as he’s highly athletic. Additionally, Robert Hunt is a balanced Guard who you feel good about. He’s not a great athlete, but he has excellent power and technique. It’s good the depth here is better than most, as this O-Line is bound to have injuries. This O-Line will allow Miami to achieve what they want on offense, but it isn’t a strength.

Dolphins Defense

Overall Defense – 84.1 (2)

This defense had an impressive year in 2022 and, along with some massive additions, makes for an elite defense. Many people don’t realize how much of a difference Ramsey will make as a Corner. He had his best years playing under Fangio and is also coming off an incredible year as a run defender. There isn’t one Corner from the past decade who’s defended the run as well as Ramsey. Next to him is the polarizing Xavien Howard. He had a down year in 2022 and is known for giving up yards, but he should thrive in this scheme. It’ll also be easier playing as a number two rather than a number one guy. Kader Kohou is an intriguing Slot coming off a quietly good season. Cam Smith will also be an outstanding Dime Corner and should thrive in off-zone. Additionally, the depth is plenty sufficient if someone goes down.

Jevon Holland is a versatile and rangy Safety who’ll be the Justin Simmons of this defense. They also brought in Deshon Elliot, who’ll be a fine second Safety. Linebackers have a tough job in the Fangio system, although Jerome Baker and David Long are up for the task. Baker has plenty of quickness and range to patrol the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Long is the ideal counterpart, as he is a tremendous run defender. This duo will be fine, but the depth is a bit problematic. Channing Tindell is their next man up and is a developmental player. It could be a massive problem if someone gets hurt, but I don’t foresee that happening.

This is one of my favorite D-Lines in football. I loved Jaelan Phillips coming out, and only his injury past dragged him down. He broke out in last year’s second half and had dominant games against the Chargers and Jets. His upside is rare, and re-signing him will likely be a challenge. The Bradley Chubb trade seemed unnecessary, as they had to give up a first and pay him a massive contract. They’ll at least have a better pass rush which is needed in this style of defense. He doesn’t have the best moves but is a relentless pass-rusher. Emmanuel Ogbah is also here and will be an excellent rotational pass rusher.

On the interior, Christian Wilkins is one of the best run-defending three techs in the league. He also helps the pass rush a decent bit too. Zach Sieler remains underrated, despite coming off a stellar season. He isn’t a star but is highly gifted at his role. Raekwon Davis will play on base downs, but I wouldn’t expect too much out of him. Despite not having any elite players, this D-Line is well-constructed and will flourish under Fangio. You could argue that this is the best defense in football, although can they carry the team to a Super Bowl? While it’s possible, I don’t project it to happen.

Dolphins Schedule

Total Win Projection – 9.3