Minnesota Vikings 2023 Preview: A Talented Team Stuck In QB-Purgatory

Some of Minnesota’s talent is lovely, but how far can Kirk Cousins take this team? They went 13-4 last season and had an unheard-of negative point differential. You can’t deny Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings are outstanding at closing games, but were they ever legit Super Bowl contenders? It’s hard to consider them in that boat, as Cousins is great but isn’t going to elevate the talent around him. Additionally, while Kevin O’Connell is an exceptional play caller, he’s not elite. It’s not like this team won’t be entertaining, or they won’t be able to compete with top teams. However, the path to the Super Bowl is much trickier than some other teams, even in a weak conference.

Cousins had an impressive year in 2022 but will only age from here on out. The rest of the offense is at least filled with ascending young players. I say they’re stuck in purgatory mainly because Cousins is now 34 and has only played well with a highly talented surrounding core. It’s also due to the fact there is a lack of depth on this roster. The top-end talent still makes for an explosive offense and a decent defense. It’ll at least be fun to see them compete with some of the best teams.

I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.

Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

Kevin O’Connell left a stellar first impression in year one. With what seemed like a mediocre team, he got them to win close games consistently. Young players also stepped up, and this culture is where it needs to be. His playcalling was highly effective throughout the season, and I love how he constantly involved his best players. As a Sean McVay disciple, he runs a wide-zone offense with a bit of a twist. As mentioned in the LA Rams Preview, the Vikings use less 21 and 12 personnel and more 11 personnel. We see moderately heavy usage of play-action. The same goes for their screen calls, as Cousins tied for 19th in screen dropbacks. O’Connell likes to attack the intermediate level of the field. Additionally, he’ll occasionally call a well-designed deep shot where Cousins has had success.

Brian Flores was a phenomenal hire from the Vikings. They would have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL hadn’t they fired Ed Donatell and chosen Flores instead. The quarter’s coverage system didn’t fit their personnel well, leading to immense yardage over the middle. Flores will implement a Belichick-style defense that’s very press-man-heavy. You’ll likely see fewer 3-4 fronts than in Miami, as the two EDGEs fit best in a 4-3 front. Moreover, Flores is known to be aggressive and blitz more than the average. In 2020, with Miami, he ranked second in blitz percentage. He also ran about 50% of his coverage snaps in man coverage. Flores may not have looked the best on paper, but his scheme worked very effectively, at least with the players he had. There’s a good reason he got hired despite recently suing the league.

Vikings Offense

Overall Offense – 81.6 (12th)

This offense led by Cousins has many bright aspects to it. Despite the recent Dalvin Cook release, this offense will have a high-end rushing attack, as the blocking is outstanding. Furthermore, the pass-pro is adequate for Cousins to thrive. Although the depth at Receiver is worrisome, they have a Receiver who could very well go down as one of the greatest ever. He is far away from reaching that, but he has the talent to do so. The beginning of his career is also one of the most dominant we’ve ever seen. Jordan Addison could contribute in a big way for them, but he is also thin and could suffer an injury easily. Outside of him, you’re hoping someone steps up because it’ll be a massive problem if Jefferson goes down.

The Vikings at least have Hockenson to rely on, who’s a reasonably underrated player. He is a dependable receiving option and a quality run blocker. On the O-Line, this is a young and ascending group that has the potential to be one of the best O-Lines in the NFL. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neil are two young studs that solidify the edges. I was very high on Darrisaw coming out; he broke out significantly last year. Just watch him run block in the second level. He has the potential to be a Trent Williams-light. While not great in pass-pro, Ezra Cleveland is an excellent wide-zone blocker. Ed Ingram is the one weak link and is a liability in pass-pro. However, they’ll be fine if they can shelter him with easy blocking tasks.

The depth on the O-Line is another concern, as they lack a true swing-Lineman. That will likely be an issue as some of these O-Linemen are slight injury risks. Alexander Mattison will be fine as the lead-back. I’m more excited to see what DeWayne McBride has in store. He isn’t a great athlete but runs as hard as any back you’ll ever see. With fantastic play-calling, a quality starting QB, and plenty of surrounding talent, this offense will be pretty damn good but not good enough to carry the team to a Super Bowl.

Vikings Defense

Overall Defense – 79.5 (23rd)

Outside of the impact the coaching will have, this defense doesn’t look strong on paper. That said, Flores will get this defense to play competently as he did with Miami. Andrew Booth Jr. will likely be the week one starter at CB. I have difficulty seeing Mekhi Blackmon starting, as he wasn’t a stand-out prospect. However, Booth could step up, and if he does, this secondary will be in much better shape. While Akayleb Evans isn’t the worst number-two Corner, he is a massive question mark. However, Byron Murphy Jr. was a phenomenal signing. He’ll play the slot and loves to run man coverage, where he’ll play a ton of this season.

Harrison Smith is still on the roster, and while aging, he makes a beneficial impact in the secondary. Camryn Bynum playing next to him, is a serviceable Safety, but I’m worried he won’t particularly play well as a single high Free Safety. They also have Lewis Cine, who could play that role and has a tone of potential, but he’s unproven. The pass rush will be a strength for Minnesota, although it still isn’t anything special. Daniell Hunter is a dominant athlete and a remarkable EDGE defender but is an injury risk. I loved the move to bring in Marcus Davenport, but that doesn’t help the interior at all.

The interior is mediocre and is the primary reason this isn’t a top-12 pass rush. Harrison Phillips, ideally, should be your second or third guy, and he’s number one here. Dean Lowry is a solid pass rusher but struggles in run defense. Additionally, Khyiris Tonga is only here to stop the run and isn’t even that great at that. While the interior is weak, Andre Carter was a pickup at EDGE that could turn into something surprising. He was an intriguing player who couldn’t achieve muscle due to Army training. Once with an NFL team, he can likely develop muscle mass and become a freakish athlete.

At Linebacker, Jordan Hicks is a decent bandaid, although I’m concerned about Brian Asamoah II. He’s an excellent athlete but lacks the needed size to take on blockers. I’ll at least say he looked good in his small sample size last year. Seeing how he fares as a starter under Flores will be fascinating. If Flores can schematically shelter these Linebacker’s roles in coverage, they’ll ultimately be fine. While not bad, this defense makes it tough to imagine this team winning playoff games without an elite offense.

Vikings Schedule

Total Win Projection – 8.9