New England Patriots 2023 Preview: A Mediocre Roster, But With World-Class Coaching

Even Patriots fans will be surprised to see New England ranked this high, but valid reasoning supports this claim. Bill Belichick is still far and away the best defensive mind in football and has established a highly competitive culture. The roster isn’t in great shape, but the coaching will make a dramatic difference when it matters most. I like many of their offseason moves, and as of writing this, DeAndre Hopkins could very well be on the team. They fixed their offensive playcalling issue by hiring Bill O’Brien and also made an incredible first-round draft selection.
Last year was a bit of a mess, but they are in a prime position to bounce back. Mac Jones should have a better year with better weapons and playcalling, and there are a lot of bright spots on this defense. The significant problem is this division, as New England is obviously the worst team. There’s still a chance the Patriots will make the playoffs, but it’ll be a highly challenging task. Regardless if they make the playoffs, this team is a tough out. Bill Belichick may be very old, but he isn’t going to let this team just fall apart.

I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.

Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

A few years ago, Bill Belichick stepped down as the defensive play caller and handed over the reins to Jerod Mayo and his son. He still oversees the defense, and the defensive coaching has hardly changed since he stopped. What he has done to keep this team competitive while cap strung is master-class coaching. It may seem like he’s not a significant reason for their rings, as they’ve been average since Brady left. However, he got this defense to be top ten in points allowed nine out of the past ten years. That is an incredible feat, and what he’s done to get all these young, unproven players to step up is remarkable. He’s arguably the greatest coach ever and has established a rigorous culture that gets the most out of his players. Like Alabama, the rules in New England are stringent, and the atmosphere is tense. It’s not very fun to be a Patriot, but it leads to success. As a head coach, no one impacts the game like Belichick does, and they’d be foolish to fire him.

The offensive play-calling was a disaster in the second half of last year. There was no rhythm, and there were broken plays left in right. It was one of the most inconsistent offenses I’ve ever seen. Well, that’ll change this year as Bill O’Brien is a well-proven and competent play-caller. The reason he got canned in Houston wasn’t his coaching ability – it was what he did as a GM. As a play-caller, he proved at Alabama he knows how to run a functional offense. It’s a modern pro-spread scheme, and O’Brien likes to play to his QBs strengths. With Bryce Young, he made excellent use of motion and play action. O’Brien primarily runs out of shotgun formation and often uses two Tight Ends. He is a fantastic match with the personnel, as he has multiple Tight Ends and some mismatch threats. It’ll be interesting to see how he builds the run game with Jones at QB, as he’s been accustomed to having a mobile threat. O’Brien is far from an elite play caller but will get the job done for New England.

This defensive scheme is my favorite one in the league, and it was all founded by Bill Belichick himself. Belichick’s defensive philosophy has influenced many defensive minds currently in the NFL. It’s a multiple-front that makes excellent use of hybrid Linebackers who can do a little bit of everything. What I love about this scheme is that it’s highly versatile and can be adjusted accordingly to the opponent. When everyone does their job right, this scheme works to perfection. However, it is a challenging scheme for players to run, especially in the secondary. It’s a moderately blitz-heavy defense and relies heavily on the DBs to avoid making mistakes. The coverage scheme is man heavy, though less man heavy than years ago. Additionally, they primarily run single high defenses, so Free Safety is crucial in this scheme. I expect Mayo and Bill’s son to do an exceptional job coaching this unit and for them to consistently keep the score low.

Patriots Offense

Overall Offense – 78.5 (23rd)

Some areas in this offense draw concern, but they’ll be fine overall. Mac Jones has had an up-and-down career so far, but I expect to see a better version of him this year. As a rookie, his processor and pocket presence was beyond his years. He regressed last year, likely due to the poor playcalling and offensive structure. He’ll probably have a much more manageable time with O’Brien this year. Bringing in JuJu will allow them to have a dependable number one option.

Furthermore, Mike Gesicki is terrific addition who should be a dangerous target over the middle. The problem is that there’s no legitimate deep threat here, and this offense will lack explosiveness. Tyquan Thornton or Kayshon Boutte may step up, but you can’t rely on that happening. Although, if they sign DeAndre Hopkins, it would be a big enough addition to move them up in the power rankings. He could be their true X to take the top off the defense.

The run game shouldn’t be anything special, but it will be adequate for this offense to succeed. Losing Isaiah Wynn is a blow, but Riley Reiff is at least serviceable. There are also some bright spots on the interior. David Andrews is an excellent run blocker and a massive leader for the team. People thought Cole Strange was a reach, but he had a commendable rookie year. Then there’s Mike Onwenu, a staple in this offense and one of the most powerful Guards. Barring the DHop signing, this isn’t a potent offense, and it will be a struggle to make it to the playoffs with this group.

Patriots Defense

Overall Defense – 80.8 (15th)

While there’s no superstar on this defense, the players and coaching mesh very well together and make for an exceptional unit overall. Bill took Christian Gonzalez for a reason and can hopefully start as the true number-one Corner. It was incredible they could get him at pick 17, as he was a projected top-ten pick. His size-speed-fluidity combo is rare and unique. With an outstanding character and impressive production in college, he likely doesn’t fail. Additionally, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones are two solid options to rotate in and out of the number two spot. Jonathan Jones is a proven stud and is one of the best Slots in the NFL. The Strong Safety position is loaded with talent and depth. Kyler Dugger is a personal favorite. He significantly impacts coverage in the intermediate area and is a tremendous run defender. However, the Free Safety position is a question mark as Jalen Mills has some inconsistencies in the secondary. Free Safety is crucial for New England, and you don’t feel confident about Mills there. They also have Adrian Philips, who can play some Free Safety, but he’s best suited in the box.

Furthermore, the Linebacking core looks strong, and some of these Safeties will play as sub-LB in the box. Both Jabril Peppers and Dugger will help shelter this Linebacking core. Ja’Whaun Bently is a fantastic run defender. He can have a limited coverage role while Peppers and Dugger take on the more challenging covers. They also drafted Marte Mapu, an excellent scheme fit who could step into a starting role.

Moreover, this pass rush will be the primary strength for New England. Matthew Judon is easily the best player on defense and is a decent number-one pass-rushing option. One guy who flies under the radar is Christian Barmore. His impact as a pass rusher is outstanding and will only improve. They also still have Lawrence Guy, who’s a solid impact in run defense, and Deatrich Wise Jr. is a quality hybrid Defensive End. Josh Uche broke out last year and showed some of the best bend in football. He is the exact kind of prototype they look for in Outside Linebackers. I don’t expect this to be the Super Bowl-winning defense we saw years ago, but they should still hold up better than about half the league.

Patriots Schedule

Total Win Projection – 7.1