This upcoming NFL season could easily be one of the most intriguing ones in recent history. After a dramatic offseason, the grand scope of the league has shifted and it will likely result in more parity. Mediocre teams made aggressive big-time moves, teams that were rebuilding are now more competitive and some of the former better teams have gotten worse. This serves as a way to gain insight and knowledge into the various narratives of this upcoming season. I give out which bets are the best to make and will add to them before the season starts. All of the betting odds are from ‘bovada.com‘. The win total projection is outlined for each team in this sheet. Please, remember to gamble responsibly. Enjoy, and leave your feedback on Twitter @FootballIntell4.
Season Awards Predictions
MVP – Patrick Mahomes (+900)
The MVP is realistically between Mahomes and Josh Allen this year. These are the two elite QBs who are in their prime and they both have stellar surrounding cores. Many people are not expecting the Chiefs to be as explosive on offense but there’s still a good chance Mahomes is the most productive QB. If this evolved Chiefs team ends up number one by the start of the playoffs, Mahomes will likely get the most credit.
Offensive Player of the Year – Cooper Kupp (+800)
There aren’t any reasons to expect any other player to win this award in 2022. The skillset of Kupp paired with Matt Stafford and the Rams scheme is a dream come true. While Kupp is the true slot in their offense, he is undoubtedly the primary target game to game while Allen Robinson is there to be a reliable vertical threat. Kupp will very likely pick up right where he left off last season, and dominate the stat sheet.
Defensive Player of the Year – Nick Bosa (+1200)
This year there isn’t just one clear-cut favorite to win this award but Nick Bosa in particular is poised for a monstrous season. Not only has Bosa consistently been a dominant force-multiplier when on the field, but this year, he is fully healthy and entering his contract year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Breece Hall (+850)
The Jets should have good run-blocking this year and the offense will be built off the run game. From Shanahan’s coaching tree, offensive coordinator Mike Lefleur will continue using the wide-zone running scheme which matches the skillset of Breece Hall very well.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Aidan Hutchinson (+500)
This is a rather easy prediction as Hutchinson is the most pro-ready rookie and immediately finds himself in an impressively growing culture. Even though there isn’t great next to him on the D-line, he still likely won’t draw many double teams in year one.
Comeback Player of the Year – Jameis Winston (+425)
There are other players who could certainly warrant this award more than Winston would but they are not likely to have good health to prove it. Winston is much more reliable to have good health than guys like Mike Thomas and Christian McCaffrey. After Winston played well in this offense, he had an arbitrary injury occur and I expect him to pick up right where he left off.
Coach of the Year – Kyle Shanahan (+1800)
If Trey Lance can have a similar development level as Josh Allen with Brian Daboll, Shanahan is automatically a great candidate for this award. Because Lance is so unproven, most of the credit will go to the play-caller who helped him the most. The 49ers roster is ready to possibly contend for a Superbowl and unless injuries hold this team back, it will be very hard to stop this team late in the year.
Power Rankins/ Vegas Predictions
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Tier One: true Superbowl contenders
Win Total Projection – 11.1
Over/ Under – 10.5
Bets:
- Superbowl winners: KC Chiefs (+1000) (great)
- Defensive rookie of the year: George Karlaftis (+1600) (great)
The general consensus on Kansas City is they’ll be due for some regression because of the loss of Tyreek Hill. While this loss is going to lead to some minor issues early on, and a less explosive team in general, later down the road, this Chiefs team will likely be just as good if not better. Rather than having to win with straight explosiveness on offense, this evolved version of the Chiefs is going to have a much more reliable defense while they’ll prioritize the short-intermediate passing game much more. There are multiple elements to this team that are being underrated and they are looking as healthy as ever, so don’t count this team out to finish on top.
2. Buffalo Bills
Tier One: true Superbowl contenders
Win Total Projection – 11.9
Over/ Under – 12
Bets:
- Reg. season REC yards leader: Stefon Diggs (+1400) (great)
Buffalo has received the most hype heading into this season and while it may seem obvious that they’re number one, they likely won’t be much of a better team next season. On paper, the roster has gotten better, but with the loss of OC Brian Daboll, it’s unlikely this offense will be quite the same. This front office did a great job of filling in the margins on the roster on top of acquiring an elite pass rusher. I wouldn’t say this team is due for any sort of regression as they’re loaded with young talent, but overall this is not the most impressive team from top-to-bottom.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tier One: true Superbowl contenders
Win Total Projection – 11.6
Over/ Under – 11.5
Bets:
At one point this past offseason, it was looking like this team would enter a rebuilding state, but yet again they have one of the best rosters in football. This receiving core is easily the deepest in the NFL and Brady looks just as good as before. Bruce Arians will no longer be the Head Coach, but having Todd Bowles will suit these circumstances fine as Byron Leftwich is a very good coordinator. With the defense being close to the same as was in 2020-21, Tampa Bay is going to likely be the top dog in the NFC.
4. Green Bay Packers
Tier One: true Superbowl contenders
Projected Win Total – 11.9
Over/ Under – 11
Bets:
- Regular season over/ under: 11 – Over (-120) (solid)
- Defensive Player of the Year: Rashan Gary (+3000) (great)
Following the departure of Davante Adams, many people in the media are wrighting this team off to win the Superbowl. While their odds aren’t the best, this is one of the few teams I trust to win at least 11-12 games and be a team that can contend with anyone. This defense is easily the best in Aaron Rodgers’ career and there’s also still the opportunity to sign a better receiver. If all their stars are healthy down the road, don’t count this team out in the playoffs.
5. LA Rams
Tier One: true Superbowl contenders
Projected Win Total – 10.9
Over/ Under – 11
Bets:
The LA rams, while still true contenders have many more question marks across their roster than last season. Luckily some of the other high-end teams had an important turnover as well, but the factor of player health could drastically alter this season. This is due to the star-studded nature of this roster as well as the poor depth at some important positions. All of the main components needed for a Superbowl caliber team are here, it’s just all about the smaller things coming together. Despite them coming off a Superbowl victory, there are other teams who have a wider aspect of strengths to rely on, which keeps them out of the top three.
6. San Francisco 49ers
Tier Two: playoffs or bust
Projected Win Total – 11
Over/ Under – 10
Bets:
- NFC Conference winner: SF (+750) (great)
- Defensive player of the year: Nick Bosa (+1200) (great)
After a full year of development under Trey Lance’s belt and a healthy roster, San Francisco is poised to be a legit playoff team. After signing Garoppolo to be the backup, Shanahan can use Lance heavily in the run game as they have a solid starter to fall back on. As they’ll have one of the best defenses and an elite run game, Lance doesn’t have to do anything special and if he does this team has the potential to be the best.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Tier Two: playoffs or bust
Win Total Projection – 10.5
Over/ Under – 10
Bets:
Some may be surprised to see the Bengals not ranked higher as they’re following a Superbowl appearance as well as a very good offseason. The truth is many other good teams had impressive offseasons and this team got considerably lucky to end up in the Superbowl last year. Because of Joe Burrow and the talent he has around him, anything can still happen despite them not having a great coach.
8. LA Chargers
Tier Two: playoffs or bust
Win Total Projection – 10.7
Over/ Under -10
Bets:
- Superbowl 57 winners: LA Chargers (+1400) (great)
- Defensive player of the year: Joey Bosa (+2000) (great)
After an exhilarating offseason, the Chargers find themselves with both an explosive offense and potential for a top defensive unit. Justin Herbert is probably in for another equally impressive year, and rookie Guard Zion Johnson is just what the offense needed. Brandon Staley’s first season was disappointing given how talented the roster ended up being, but he now has a great opportunity to redeem himself.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Tier Two: playoffs or bust
Win Total Projection – 10.7
Over/ Under – 10
Bets:
- Regular season MVP: Lamar Jackson (+1800) (solid)
The Baltimore organization has seemed to have the long-term goal of consistently being good while most of the other top teams are focused on winning in a short time frame. If Lamar stays healthy he is likely in for a huge year, and this roster is loaded with young potential all around. The coaching from John Harbaugh and the Culture in Baltimore is also a game changer, making this a reliable team to bet on.
10. Indianapolis Colts
Tier Three: possible contenders
Win Total Projection – 10.1
Over/ Under – 10
Bets:
What was said about Baltimore is also true to the Colts as well, though they just don’t have quite the same level of young ascending players. Having Johnathon Taylor behind this Colt’s O-line is a nightmare for defensive coordinators in the league, and that says something considering it’s a passing league. Losing Matt Eberflus is a big blow, but this front office is reliable at finding those kinds of replacements. There are multiple elite players on defense, the offense is healthy, and Matt Ryan looks ready to go.
11. Denver Broncos
Tier Three: possible contenders
Win Total Projection – 9.5
Over/ Under – 10
Bets:
- Superbowl winners: Denver Broncos (+1600) (great)
After suffering from poor Quarterback play for the past six years, Denver finally has a QB to feel good about. Whether Russell Wilson is still truly elite or not is up in the air as he had unusual circumstances last season. This defense, while not a top-ten unit is solid, to say the least with room to improve as well. As long as Wilson’s healthy, there’s no doubt he’ll be a massive upgrade and Nathaniel Hackett was a fantastic head coach hire.
12. Dallas Cowboys
Tier Three: possible contenders
Win Total Projection – 9.9
Over/ Under – 10
Bets:
- Receiving yards leader: CeeDee Lamb (+1400) (great)
- Regular season MVP: Dak Prescott (+1600) (solid)
Dallas is in a difficult situation this year as they’ve been accredited as Superbowl contenders in recent years, but were just recently forced to lose multiple stars. Following the gruesome knee injury of Tyron Smith, this offense will be much worse off as Dak Prescott has consistently struggled without both him and Amari Cooper. This is still a very good culture and the defense will also be a strength to this team so they’ll be in competition for the playoffs.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Tier Three: possible contenders
Win Total Projection – 8.8
Over/ Under – 8.5
Bets:
After having a massive offseason highlighted by the acquisition of Davante Adams, the Raiders are very unfortunate to find themselves in by far the toughest division. With the new coaching regime, there will likely be an all-around improvement and better consistency. The chances of them winning this division are slim to none, but this still will be one of the most fun teams to watch in 2022.
14. New Orleans Saints
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 9.2
Over/ Under – 8.5
Bets:
- Regular season over/ under: Over (-145) (solid)
The general consensus on New Orleans this year is they are a middling team that has lower odds of making the playoffs. There is a lot of uncertainty in multiple areas, but they still have proven stars all over their roster while Jameis Winston is underrated and could have a good season. This defense doesn’t get enough credit from general fans and the new head coach Dennis Allen could be a very good hire.
15. New England Patriots
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 8.7
Over/ Under – 8.5
Bets:
- Coach of the year: Bill Belichick (+2000) (solid)
While New England is always one of the most interesting teams to evaluate, they find themselves with one of the biggest unknowns you’d ever see from a team heading into the season. There’s no doubt that this coaching staff and team culture is elite, but with the departure of Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are now the play callers. This could very well end up in a disaster, but ultimately it’s safe to bet on Bill Belicheck making it work somehow by the end of the season.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 8.2
Over/ Under – 8.5
Bets:
Following a lackluster offseason, Arizona still has an explosive team but lacks some of the characteristics commonly seen in legit playoff teams. The entire pass-defense unit has gotten considerably worse and the team is without their superstar receiver in Hopkins for six games. Unless Kliff Kinsbury and Kyler Murray take a step up and luck is in their favor, expect regression this season for Arizona.
17. Philadelphia Eagles
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 9.4
Over/ Under – 9.5
Bets:
After a playoff appearance and a much-improved offseason, most people expect them to return, but unless Hurts has a breakout year, this is unlikely to happen. This offensive line is elite and Nick Sirianni is a smart coach who greatly benefits this offense in the run game. The defense while not bad is very simplistic and will get good-veteran QBs licking their chops. The Eagles roster has a lot of great strengths but what they do best isn’t going to take them very far.
18. Tennessee Titans
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 8.4
Over/ Under – 9
Bets:
This ranking may be a surprise as they were the number one seed in the AFC last playoffs. While it’s safe to say they’ll be solid, they have a lack of high-end talent and Ryan Tannehill isn’t going to elevate the talent around him. Other teams in this tier simply have different pieces with better upside and there are a lot of good teams this year.
19. Cleveland Browns
Tier Five/ Three: might be competitive/ possible contenders
Win Total Projection – 7.4
Over/ Under – N/A
Bets:
To clarify, Cleveland this season without Deshaun Watson is in tier five while they’ll be in tier three when he’s back. With Jacoby Brissett, this team has enough talent paired with good coaching to still be a tough team to beat. When Watson returns from his 11-game suspension, if they have enough wins, they can possibly be a legit playoff team.
20. Miami Dolphins
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 7
Over/ Under – 9
Bets:
- Miami regular season over/ under – 9: Under (-110) (Great)
- Miami stage of elimination – To miss playoffs: (-180) (great)
- Tua Tagovailoa’s regular season passing yards over/ under: Under (-160) (great)
As surprising as it seems, when compared to every other team, Miami isn’t any better than last year in relation to the rest of the league. In addition, they got rather fortunate last year and their strength of schedule is very difficult this year. The addition of Tyreek Hill isn’t going to do anything special with this offense as Tua isn’t a great deep passer. While the hire of Mike McDaniels is great, losing Brian Flores is a huge hit to this defense.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tier Four: purgatory state
Win Total Projection – 7.2
Over/ Under – 7.5
Bets:
After beating the odds of having a winning season in 2021, Pittsburgh is even less likely this season to do it again. A losing season still hasn’t occured for coach Mike Tomlin but that drastically depends on the QB which is a question mark this year after losing Big Ben. This defense is still very talented and well coached but not good enough to carry a poor offense in todays NFL.
22. Minnesota Vikings
Tier Five: might be competitive
Win Total Projection – 8.2
Over/ Under – 9.5
Bets:
- Regular season over/ under: Under (-105) (solid)
Even though the Viking best-case scenario this year is just a Wildcard appearance, this franchise is headed in the right direction. Justin Jefferson and Daniel Hunter are near-perfect cornerstone pieces to have, and Kevin O’Connell could possibly be another one of the great ascending young head coaches. With a lot of high-end talent, a new coaching staff, and a lot of unproven players, this is one of the more high-variable teams in the league.
23. Washington Commanders
Tier Five: might be competitive
Win Total Projection – 7.2
Over/ Under – 8
Bets:
Washington may be one of the blandest teams in the league right now as everything about this team is just solid for the most part. Because guys like Carson Wentz and Chase Young are volatile players, this season could be up and down. There aren’t any significant weaknesses on the roster, there are just not enough stars here to truly be competitive when their QB is like Wentz.
24. Carolina Panthers
Tier Five: might be competitive
Win Total Projection – 6.5
Over/ Under – 6.5
Bets:
- Panthers Division Finishing Position: 3rd (+165) (great)
The Carolina rebuild under head coach Matt Rhule has not gone to plan since the start of it in 2020. This is mainly due to the lack of QB play as well as smaller areas like pass-pro and playcalling. The front office has made some really impressive moves like the trade for Baker Mayfield but has done a poor job of filling in smaller aspects of team-building. Matt Rhule is a great defensive mind and there is some nice talent at different parts of the team. While this isn’t a bottom-feeder team, they sure will give some teams some trouble.
25. Detroit Lions
Tier Five: might be competitive
Win Total Projection – 7.1
Over/ Under – 6.5
Bets:
‘Motor City’ Dan Campbell did an extraordinary job of beginning to turn this culture around which is much easier said than done. After two good drafts and a smart and busy free-agency period, this Lions team has a legitimate chance to compete for a playoff spot. This O-line has elite run-blocking and there are now serious weapons for Jared Goff to work with. Regardless if this season is successful, Detroit will be entertaining to watch any week.
26. New York Giants
Tier Five: might be competitive
Win Total Projection – 6.7
Over/ Under – 7
Bets:
This new Giants regime is one of the most exciting the league has seen recently and that’s because Brian Daboll who has a chance to become a truly elite head coach. This recent draft was absolutely incredible as they literally got the two best players on FBI’s NFL 2022 Draft Board. There’s a lot of young potential on this roster still, with multiple high-end veteran-starters as well. Daniel Jones isn’t anything special but he’ll at least help this team build momentum heading into the 2023 season.
27. New York Jets
Tier Five: might be competitive
Win Total Projection – 6.4
Over/ Under – 5.5
Bets:
As the Jets mark the end of tier five, they still have clear potential to be a solid team but have too many question marks for me to bet on them. If Zach Wilson takes a step up this season, and the receivers develop too, this could be a legit offense. Robert Saleh will continue to elevate this culture and the defense has filled out its missing pieces.
28. Chicago Bears
Tier Six: rebuilding-state
Win Total Projection – 6.3
Over/ Under – 6.5
Bets:
Chicago is in a unique situation right now as they are in the beginning stage of a rebuild while young QB Justin Fields is left with very little to work with. While this new regime has a lot to like, they clearly aren’t highly invested in Fields and have basically forced him into a sink or swim scenario. This organization is on the right track for the most part but this season still won’t be very competitive.
29. Seattle Seahawks
Tier Six: rebuilding-state
Win Total Projection – 6.2
Over/ Under – 5.5
Bets:
- Regular season over/ under: Over (-105) (solid)
Seattle is obviously in for a rough year after the loss of Russell Wilson but there are certain aspects of their team which is being overlooked. They have one of the best-receiving cores in the entire league and there are still a lot of young players who could prove themselves. This coaching staff isn’t horrible by any means, they just lack modern thinking, but this will still be a competitive type of culture.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Tier Six: rebuilding-state
Win Total Projection – 4.7
Over/ Under – 5
Bets:
While there were certainly some nice improvements this offseason, Atlanta ultimately got worse as they lost Matt Ryan and are without Calvin Ridley for the whole season. This receiving core will be unique but still a benefit to this offense. With Arthur Smith entering his second year and Marcus Mariota having a starting opportunity, Atlanta could possibly exceed expectations.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tier Six: rebuilding-state
Win Total Projection – 5.5
Over/ Under – 6
Bets:
After making easily one of the worst head-coach hires of all time, this organization hires Doug Pederson which while better is still very underwhelming. Pederson will use a nice scheme for Lawrence and the offensive talent has improved. The coaching and culture here are not too much of an improvement and considering the improvement of other teams in this tier, Jacksonville is still at the bottom.
32. Houston Texans
Tier Six: rebuilding-state
Win Total Projection – 4.6
Over/ Under – 4.5
Bets:
- Divisional wins over/ under – 2: Over (-110) (solid)
Houston is unarguably the one team that has the longest to go before becoming a competitive franchise again. What this team got in return for Watson considering the astonishing number of accusations was unbelievable value. Having a great draft gives this team some excitement but it’s safe to say they’ll have a bad record this year.
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