At the midway point, a lot has changed since the start and therefore, a lot of different narratives and discussions have formed. NFL power rankings from the big-media companies will basically give you a standings sheet with some slight adjustments. These rankings take into account many factors and the main conclusions made are driven through film. Countless teams have either disappointed or exceeded expectations and a brief summary of why that is for those teams will be given here. The league has been continuously growing in parity for the past few years, and this year teams are closer together than ever. Besides the best two teams, and the worst few teams, anyone could essentially beat anyone. If you have any differing opinions, please leave them on Twitter @Footballintell4.
While there were legitimate reasons to be lower than the consensus on Buffalo heading into the year, they have undoubtedly been the team to beat this year. Through the first eight weeks, the Bills have ranked second in offensive expected points added (EPA) and have ranked fourth in defensive EPA. The biggest surprise for this team has been how well these young starters have stepped up as A.J. Epenesa and Gregory Rousseau have been big impacts. Matt Milano is having a phenomenal season and the rookie corners have played decent as well. The new OC Ken Dorsey has been excellent as a play-caller and Josh Allen just keeps improving. There is now a legitimate argument to be made that Allen is deserving of the Quarterback crown. While I’d personally take the QB with a more well-established career in Mahomes, the gap between the two is slim. The only question now is if they can be just as dominant come playoff time.
It doesn’t seem like this team is on par with Buffalo at the moment, but as the season progresses, they’ll likely be just as much of a powerhouse. This offensive line does not get enough credit as they are easily top-ten in both dimensions. Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith are ascending star linemen and these receivers are only getting better with more time spent with Mahomes and Reid. Alongside the two defensive rookies who are already studs, there are multiple other young talented players like L’Jarius Sneed and Nick Bolton. This roster is loaded with young guys that most fans have not heard of but have the type of potential to easily breakout. Andy Reid and this culture are among the best of the best so the chances of this team improving even further are high. Patrick Mahomes has proven multiple times he can play at a dominant level when it matters most, and there’s no other QB right now I’d trust more than him in the playoffs.
There have been an absurd amount of surprises this year, and while the Eagles’ success isn’t exactly the biggest one, this is the one surprising team that has a legit shot at the Superbowl. GM Howie Roseman is the man who deserves the most credit for this turnaround and this is why. While it was initially questionable for Roseman to draft Jalen Hurts with the contract Carson Wentz had just received at the time, the fact he practically got two first-round picks in exchange for Wentz and some small draft capital is quite incredible looking at it today. In addition, the replacement he drafted has shown immense development since being drafted and is looking like a legitimate MVP candidate. Roseman also turned one of those firsts into AJ Brown who’s been dominant this season, and DeVonta Smith has also been looking like a steal. Nick Sirianni has proven to be a very good head coach and this defensive scheme as well as the talent level have greatly improved. While there still isn’t any evidence this team can hang with the two AFC top dogs, it has been made clear this team has been the best in the NFC so far.
With only a four-four record, many fans wouldn’t think this team is anywhere near the top four. However, after watching almost every game this year, there are many things this team excels in, and no other team in this tier has a better resume of success. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t exactly elevate this offense, but with three elite playmakers and a rising stud receiver, he’s still able to get outstanding production out of them. Kyle Shanahan has received the most blame for their losses, but besides some poor in-game decisions, he’s still been an elite play-caller. Christian McCaffrey couldn’t have found a better team to land as he’s a perfect option to pair with the short passing and check-downs by Garoppolo. The downside is that Garoppolo limits the upside of this offense, but that is no issue when the defense plays at an elite level when healthy. Nick Bosa is having his best season and the entire defense has had 94 total pressures through the first eight weeks. Fred Waner is unquestionably the best off-ball linebacker in football and there are multiple other unsung heroes playing well for this defense. Injuries have hurt their success recently, but all of their key starters will return after the bye. This ranking may seem too high right now but come playoff time, expect the 49ers to be a serious contender.
After losing multiple high-end starters this last offseason, it appeared obvious this team would regress, but the opposite has actually happened so far. After Dak Prescott got injured, this team rallied, and the defense rose to a top-three unit, while Cooper Rush did a fine job as a backup. Many of the young players with talent have stepped up and been difference-makers which is a credit to this coaching staff. While Dak doesn’t have an elite surrounding core, they have CeeDee Lamb to rely on and this O-line is still solid. That is enough to have a consistently good offense, which paired with a borderline elite defense makes for a great team.
With all things considered, Baltimore is having a good year so far and they’ll be consistently a tough out no matter who they play. Lamar Jackson is having his best year so far as a passer as he has slightly improved his processor and has also looked more comfortable in the pocket. The run game hasn’t been as dominant, but with better QB play, it’s been easier for them to come away with close wins. The defense still looks very talented, but they struggled severely in coverage early on which was likely due to the loss of Wink Martindale. Lately, they’ve communicated better and given up fewer yards, but this offense is still going to have to be the main driving force. While this team is a safe bet to make the playoffs, it’s hard to see them being a true Superbowl contender.
Even though this team drastically moved up my rankings, I’m still not totally surprised by what I’ve seen from them. Coach Kevin O’Connell is the one big pleasant surprise as he’s done a great job implementing his scheme and getting consistent play. None of the Viking’s performances have really wowed this season, but they’ve consistently done well in all departments of the game. Having two elite impacts in Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson greatly benefits Kirk Cousins. The offensive line who’s made of young ascending players has been well above average too. The one weak spot on this team is the secondary coverage unit as the DBs specifically have allowed a total of 1,161 passing yards through the first six games. Despite not having a great QB, this franchise is headed in the right direction and is very likely in the playoffs.
Miami is the one team that has proved me the most wrong so far and it’s due to multiple different reasons. Mike McDaniel has done an incredible job as a first-year head coach as he not only has excelled at calling plays but has also established a congruent high-level formula for success. Tua Tagovailoa has taken a massive step up and looks like a franchise guy but it’s still fair to say he isn’t anything special compared to the very best QBs. He doesn’t have a lot of room for improvement but whether he can play well in big-time games is the next big question. Both sides of the trenches have been pleasant surprises and the new DC is clearly a good replacement for Brian Flores. Besides the injury to Tua, everything has gone their way so far and they’ve quickly emerged as one of the most fun teams to watch.
After having a miraculous playoff run last year, the Bengals have come back to earth and have looked more like the rest of the teams in this tier. Joe Burrow had a very slow start, but since then has picked it up. Besides the last loss to Cleveland, this offense has been fantastic lately. Head coach Zac Taylor hasn’t been a high-level play caller and held back the offense in multiple games. This run game hasn’t been able to get going which is very disappointing given the talent they have. The defense hasn’t been poor, nor very good, but the talent is here for them to get better. Once Ja’Marr Chase gets back, this will be a very difficult offense to stop, despite their deficiencies.
Unlike no other team in this tier, the Titans are very well-rounded and have one of the best cultures at the moment. The offense is solid as they have a great run game but have an underwhelming receiving core. Ryan Tannehill does a good job with the weapons he has, though he isn’t creating offense on his own. The defense and overall coaching have been what’s elevated this team. With a very good secondary and a phenomenal pass rush, it is hard to pass against them, which is why they’ve had good success. They’ve recorded an incredible total of 134 pressures on defense through the first eight weeks. Tennessee does a lot of things well, and while they’re a hard team to beat, they still aren’t true contenders.
After losing Bruce Arians to retirement, the Buccs haven’t been able to get back to that dominant brand of football they had before. Some changes and injuries to the O-line have clearly hindered this offense and their best weapons have missed key time as well. Combined with the change in playcalling, it has made Tom Brady’s job harder who himself hasn’t looked the same either. As the season progresses, Brady will likely get back to his old self, but for now, this offense isn’t scaring anybody. The defense has still played very well, but they haven’t been good enough to support a bad offense every week. As long as they make it to the playoffs though, Brady will still have a chance to make something happen.
Things have simply not gone the Rams’ way this year, but they are still far from being out of the playoff picture. Losing Andrew Whitworth has been huge as they’ve regressed to one of the worst pass-pro units after allowing 104 pressures in the first seven games. The run game hasn’t been quite the same this year, and as a result, this offense has been much less efficient. The defense still has a very good ceiling, though they have holes that occasionally get exploited. Losing Von Miller has made this pass rush much less of a problem, and on weeks when Ramsay is off, the defense can look bad. With Sean Mcvay and Stafford, there’s a high probability they fix some of their issues and back get to the playoffs, even with their poor record.
After receiving an extreme amount of hype it’s looking like this season is going to turn out somewhat of a disappointment. This is mainly due to injuries and having their QB Justin Herbert having to play hurt. Another factor that is being overlooked by a good portion of the media is the head coach Brandon Staley, who just hasn’t gotten his defense to play up to its potential. The pass rush hasn’t been as impactful as it could be and the whole defense doesn’t play great as a group. As Herbert fully recovers, this will go back to being a very good offense, but it’s not looking like the Charger’s year.
The Packers have been a massive disappointment this year, but with that being said, there’s still hope to turn things around. Brian Gutekunst deserves the most blame due to his poor draft decisions and his lack of aggressiveness. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked the same, though it’s not because he’s physically shot. The receiving core doesn’t have a single guy they can rely on at the moment, and Rodgers has lost his confidence and trust in them. The offensive failures have been a result of every department’s disappointment, but they’ve recently been able to get a good run game going. The defense has been healthy for the most part but the DC Joe Berry is doing them no favors with his soft playcalling. None of the early-round rookies have made impacts so far as well. If some of the younger players step up on both sides, the defensive scheme improves and Rodgers gets back to his old self, Green Bay can still find a way to the playoffs.
The turn of events for Seattle has been very fortunate as they have already turned their franchise around after trading one of the highest-paid QBs away. After it was looking like a foolish move to bring back Pete Carol, he has re-emerged as one of the better head coaches in football. QB Geno Smith has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises in the league as he has actually outplayed Russell Wilson so far. Smith went from a career backup to a now being quality starter just in half a season. He’s gotten great help from both his star receivers as well as his two rookie tackles. The defense isn’t a strength but there are a lot of nice young players that can be built upon. The future looks bright for Seattle, but there are still a lot of competitive teams that outmatch them.
This is obviously a controversial ranking as they’ve beaten multiple teams who rank better but based on film analysis, this isn’t a legit playoff team. The Giants currently have 159.1 passing yards per game which ranks them 30th in the NFL. While they are built through the run game and have one of the best running backs currently, it will be crucial to have a good passing offense in the playoffs. Daniel Jones, while not bad, has not impressed and the weapons aren’t elevating this offense either. If the defense were a top ten unit, this formula for success would work much better long term, but the defense has only been average. There’s a lot of young talent to build upon but there are also currently no star players on defense to rely on. Once this team gets a good franchise QB, they will probably become Superbowl contenders, but for now, this is a team that’ll get exposed later in the year.
The Patriots probably aren’t making the playoffs, but with that being said, why shouldn’t they be ranked in the top 20? According to nfelo.com, they are ranked ninth in net expected points added (EPA). The eye test doesn’t quite live up to that as they’ve had a rather easy schedule and have also forced a lot of flukey turnovers. While Mac Jones has disappointed tremendously so far, Baily Zappe played just about as well as Jones did last year. Matt Patricia has been a pleasant surprise as a play caller and the O-line play has been all-around good. The secondary has been excellent as Johnathon Jones has stepped up and Jack Jones is having a very impressive rookie campaign. With good coaching on both sides, as long as the good QB play continues, this will consistently be a strenuous opponent.
The Jets have had their ups and downs so far but looking forward, there are a lot of things to feel good about. Robert Saleh has finally gotten this defense to play up to its potential. Sauce Gardner has played at an elite level since the start of the year, and D.J. Reed has been one of the best number-two corners as well. Quinnen Williams is a likely all-pro and the depth on the D-line is some of the best in the NFL. Zach Wilson needs to clean up his mistakes and be a more efficient passer for them to make the playoffs, but that could very well happen. The pieces are here for the Jets to succeed, it’s just about putting it all together at this point.
No one really saw this coming for Denver as Russell Wilson was a well-proven elite QB, and has since looked like a bottom-ten starter. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett has also disappointed, but most of the blame still falls on Wilson. After having some poor in-game decisions, there have been some good creative play calls that were ruined by Wilson. The defense has actually been very impressive, and this is mostly due to the elite secondary. CB Patrick Surtain has been playing lights out and Justin Simmons is a very underrated safety. Trading away Bradley Chubb was probably the right move considering they got a first-rounder in return, even though this defense is worse off now. While it hasn’t looked pretty so far, there’s at least hope for a better future in Denver.
While the high-end talent is there in Arizona, this front office and coach staff have proven to be bottom tier. The culture here is soft and there have been far more misses from Steve Keim than hits. Resigning James Conner looks like a bad move now, and the margins were filled in poorly on the roster. The run defense remains to be one of the worst, and the pass rush is very weak on the edges. The corners have been a pleasant surprise, but besides that, no one has stepped up. When Marquise Brown gets back to be paired with D-Hop, this offense will be very explosive, but that’s only gonna get them so far. Because of the new Kyler Murray, contract, this team is doomed to a purgatory state.
Cleveland has been everything I expected out of them this year without Deshaun Watson. The run game is elite, and the passing game is one of the worst. This will of course change once Watson comes back, but Jacoby Brissett looks like a backup. On the defensive side, this has been a down year for them so far. Myles Garrett is still himself, but the DBs all together have looked rough for the most part. Furthermore, this run defense hasn’t been very good either. When Watson comes back, the offense will likely be great, but it may be too late to make a late-season comeback.
The first year under head coach Dennis Allen has been very disappointing as he’s starting to prove he’s not a good coach. Some of the blame should go to Jameis Winston for having such a bad start, but Allen should be having the defense play at a high level given he was the DC before. This past performance against Las Vegas was better, but it was more of the Raiders playing badly. If New Orleans gets a franchise QB, this offense will be in great shape, as Chris Olave has looked incredible. The O-line has the potential to be elite in a few years as well. For a team that sold out for years and is in cap hell now, they are still in a good position, but this year’s expectations haven’t been met.
The raiders are another among the group of disappointing teams this year and it’s looking like Josh McDaniels might get fired. The offensive failures have appeared to be a combination of the playcalling, poor pass-pro, and the poor play of Derek Carr. The defense isn’t poor, but it’s been underwhelming to watch considering the talent. The only thing this team really has going for them is their superstar weapons and Josh Jacobs which isn’t likely getting them to the playoffs. At the moment, it’s looking like Rich Bisaccia would’ve been a far better head coach option.
The Jags have thoroughly impressed overall this year despite them not having a good record. The biggest surprise has been Doug Pederson who’s looked like a good coach for the most part. In addition, the development has been there for Trevor Lawrence, although he’s still shown obvious inconsistencies. First-rounder Devin Lloyd has been incredible for being a rookie and Travon Walker has looked nice as well. CB Tyson Campbell is an underrated stud who’ll likely become more well known as time goes on. Although this season won’t likely result in a playoff appearance, you at least like what you see heading forward,
After the T.J. Watt injury, interest was lost in this team, as Kenny Pickett behind a bad O-line isn’t the most fun team to watch. What’s good, however, is that this is always a winning culture which keeps them competitive still. There are also a handful of offensive weapons that are young and have promising talent. George Pickens has been a very exciting player, and both Najee Harris and Pat Freirmuth have outstanding talent. The defense is still very well coached – they’ve just lacked a good pass rush and have had poor cornerback play. If this O-line gets better and Kenny Pickett grows, this could very well be a playoff team in the future, but it’s not looking great right now.
Despite some major deficiencies with Atlanta, they are clearly headed in a positive direction. Arthur Smith is one of the most creative play-callers currently around and Kyle Pitts looks like everything we all expected. It didn’t seem necessary to trade Calvin Ridley, but there are at least other weapons that can be built around for the future. Mariota is holding this offense back for the most part and hopefully, they can acquire someone better than Desmond Ridder this offseason. The defense will certainly need to grow and acquire better personnel as they’ve been poor in all departments. They do, however, have two good building pieces with CB A.J. Terrell and Grady Jarrett. Atlanta isn’t a truly good team yet, but the future is looking bright.
Washington is in a very akward position right now, as they are in desperate need of a franchise QB, but have too much talent to end up landing a top-three pick. Carson Wentz has been a disaster as Taylor Heineke is proving to be a better starter and this offensive line has hurt the offense. The potential of this defense hasn’t been reached and they are often playing tired due to the poor offense. It’s looking like Ron Rivera will probably get fired and hopefully, the franchise can eventually get headed in the right direction as they’re wasting a lot of potential.
There were good reasons to expect this team to be near dead last, this season, but things have worked out quite well so far. Matt Eberflus has looked like a good hire and this defense is playing much more disciplined and consistent with him here. Some of the new receivers have stepped up and played decent while the offensive scheme and playcalling have looked good too. The run game has surprisingly been one of the best in football this year, although the pass-pro has been rather poor. While they’re not going anywhere this year, this is an exciting franchise to look forward to.
Detroit has been a very fun and entertaining team but just has never been able to pick up a decent amount of wins under Dan Campbell. They play in a lot of close games, and the culture doesn’t appear to be an issue at all, so it remains somewhat unclear. Jared Goff clearly could be upgraded, but it’s not like he’s been awful or the main reason for their failures. Heading forward, Dan Campbell is probably the right guy, but the DC Aaron Glenn really should be fired as he’s seriously held them back. If it weren’t for the connection Campbell had with him, he’d likely already be fired. After trading away T.J. Hockenson, it’s looking like Detroit will be picking in the top three again, but they’re at least an entertaining watch.
The Colts by far have been the most disappointing team this year as they’ve now basically given up on the playoffs by benching Matt Ryan to start Sam Ehlinger. This will still be a competitive team, but by starting Ehlinger, they’ve chosen the decision that puts them in the best position for a top draft pick, while giving someone with potential a shot. This defense still has good talent, but they’ve clearly missed having Matt Eberflus. Many of this team’s best players aren’t having good seasons or have been hurt. They’ll now likely only get two more wins and get a top-five pick which is best for the long term.
The Panthers looked like the obvious dead-last team weeks ago but they have since found a bit of life with the firing of Matt Rhule and PJ Walker coming in. Firing Matt Rhule early was a good decision as he clearly wasn’t establishing a competitive culture and had no direction for this team. The offensive playcalling remains to be an issue for Carolina and the long-term answer at QB still needs to be found. After trading away Christian McCaffrey, and for good reason, this team has basically waived the white flag this year and is now just looking toward the draft.
The Texans started the year off looking considerably good, but over the past few weeks, there’s been no other team this underwhelming to watch. You can tell this team has a positive future for the most part. There are talented young players on both sides of the ball, and this culture is looking good for a losing team. Lovie Smith needs to do a better job of using his players to their best strengths, however. Davis Mills clearly isn’t the answer which leads this team to a position of playing for a draft pick.
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