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This NFL mock draft is based on what I would do personally if I were the GM for each team drafting. Players are selected based on my own draft board and team needs while also considering where the players would realistically go in the draft. The players with their links listed are the ones I’ve watched three-plus games on, while the rest I’ve only watched one-two or haven’t watched at all. I’ve watched a total of about 26 players so far, so my opinions on some of these picks will change. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.
~13-Minute Read
The number one pick has become more of a debate than it was a month ago. However, the rare potential is still clearly there with Caleb Williams, and his abysmal defense has led to him pressing too much. That won’t be as much of an issue in Chicago. While this defense is poor, no pro-defense is even close to as bad as USC’s defense. He’ll have plenty of talent on offense, and as long as they find a quality play-caller, they’ll be in business. Yeah, he’s arrogant, but he has traits that are impossible to pass on.
Some still argue Daniel Jones deserves another year with better weapons and line play. While it might be fair to give him another year, Drake Maye is already on Jones’ level and has a far better upside. Plus, you can trade Jones for a second and third-rounder. Maye has some of the traits that made Josh Allen so incredible with Daboll. Now Daboll has a shot to do it again with someone like Maye.
His arm talent and mobility are the two traits that draw enticement. Additionally, he’s relatively refined mentally and only needs to clean up his mechanics. I certainly see the case for him to go first, and the Giants would be getting some of the best draft value in recent memory by taking him here.
If the two top QBs are off the table, I like my odds of getting a QB in the second round. I wanted to get New England a Tackle, but it’s hard to pass up Marvin Harrison Jr., especially with this Receiving core. Whoever ends up the QB would have an easy life with Harrison Jr. catching their passes.
Not only is he a freak athlete, but this is an intelligent and nuanced Receiver we’re talking about. His hands haven’t been as dominant recently, but he’s showing he can be used in different ways, such as being a RAC threat. This is the most talented receiver prospect I’ve seen in my four years of doing draft analysis. That would be of tremendous use to New England.
GB Acquires: Fourth OVR
AZ Acquires: Sixth OVR, 38th OVR, 211th OVR
Very few non-QBs are worth trading up for in the first, but with Olu Fashanu, it’s a different story. David Bakhtiari will probably never play again for Green Bay, and Jordan Love isn’t the best at throwing under pressure. Getting a franchise Tackle in the building would make this offense more functional. Olu may lack the run-blocking traits that fans love, but he couldn’t realistically be much better in pass-pro. His physical attributes give him elite potential, and he’ll be excellent in one dimension from day one. This type of trade-up is anticlimactic for the fans but will ultimately be a loved pick years from now.
It’s not like Chicago needs a new Tight End, but why not when he’s easily the second-most-talented player in the class? Brock Bowers isn’t quite a unicorn like Kyle Pitts, but he reminds me a lot of George Kittle. He may become a better player than Pitts, as he’s a more complete player. Even though he’s undersized, he can still block exceptionally well. I love the combo of athleticism and toughness – something that’s challenging to find. Chicago’s team is just altogether depleted of high-end talent, and Bowers, paired with Williams, would change that.
GB Acquires: Fourth OVR
AZ Acquires: Sixth OVR, 38th OVR, 211th OVR
Marco Wilson has gotten picked on mostly for Arizona, and getting a Corner like Kool-Aid McKinstry would be massive. He’s very experienced in press coverage and looked beyond impressive while in it. As I mentioned in my 2024 Arizona Cardinals Mock Draft, Kool-Aid is a press-man Corner with the quickness and IQ to thrive in an off-man system. Arizona uses an off-man system, but you also occasionally see them press the Receivers. Kool-Aid could quickly become a Star in this defense, potentially making this secondary quite frightening.
As tempting as an O-Linemen or EDGE is, the Rams probably won’t be picking this high again soon. Bo Nix fits the scheme well and could sit for a year behind Stafford. His accuracy has been outstanding in 2023, and he’s also done a fine job of not turning it over. He’s the kind of QB that Sean McVay would like, as he throws a beautiful deep ball and has solid play extension. This may seem high for someone like Nix, but he’s given no reason so far to believe he’s not a top-ten pick.
Joe Alt continues to dominate in pass-pro this season, which would make a dramatic difference on this Titans team. He has the get-off and power to impose his will as a run blocker and has solid technique in pass-pro. You’d like his kick slide to be better, but that can certainly happen with his athleticism. He has a legitimate shot at becoming a franchise Left Tackle, which Will Levis could appreciate.
As much as Atlanta needs a true X-Receiver, Jared Verse is arguably the best player available at a position of need. Instead of taking a QB here, I’m using a second-rounder to trade for Justin Fields. Fields is a perfect scheme fit with Arthur Smith as he could tap into his running ability here.
Verse could’ve been a first-rounder last year but decided to stay. His get-off is dramatically better in 2023 compared to 2022. Pair his elite get-off with the size and raw physical traits he has, and he may turn into a superstar. This pick would nearly complete the defense and potentially give Atlanta three elite players to hang their hats on.
If a high-end O-Linemen prospect is available this high, it’d be foolish not to invest in someone like Taliese Fuaga with this pick. Fuaga is a late riser whose film is not available yet. Not much is known about this guy, but he’s the number one graded Tackle per PFF as of 11/15. He can either play Right Tackle or Left Guard for Washington. His size and power make him an excellent fit for this scheme. Based on his PFF grades, he appears to be more of a run blocker than a pass-protector. It may seem wild to project Fuaga as a top-ten pick, but come draft day, it could happen.
Michael Penix Jr. must go to a team with solid pass-pro due to his injury history. Tampa Bay fits that billing, and he’d also have good weapons to throw to. Penix Jr. is a mobile QB with an excellent arm and an impressive ability to evade the rush. He’s also another QB this year with terrific accuracy. I like what Dave Canales is doing in Tampa, and Penix has a high chance of success here. While Baker has been solid, it’s time to get a long-term answer while you have the chance.
I strongly considered Malik Nabers here, but Tackle is just too important, and that’s priority number one for the Jets. JC Latham has been doing an exceptional job in pass-pro and run-blocking in SEC competition. Although he isn’t the best gap scheme run blocker, he’s killed it on zone runs. New York primarily uses zone-running schemes, so he’s an ideal fit. His true pass-set grade is near the league’s top, which means he’s pro-ready. Aaron Rodgers could really use someone like Latham, especially after the Achilles injury.
As much as I think Malik Nabers deserves a top-ten pick, there were more critical needs for other teams. Nabers is precisely what Denver needs to make this offense threatening. It’s not like Russell Wilson has been poor this year, and the defense has improved lately, making me feel more comfortable taking a Receiver here. Nabers isn’t the fastest, but is explosive and tough. He can make contested catches regularly for Denver and has the tools to be a phenomenal route runner. Nabers is the type of guy Sean Payton would love to have on the roster.
The interior of LA’s run defense has been abysmal this season, and acquiring Jer’Zhan Newton would help. Newton is undersized for a Defensive Interior but has the power and instincts to be a quality run defender. In addition, his quickness and hand usage allow him to thrive as a pass rusher. This would be a three-down player they’re getting, which would tremendously help this defense. If all goes to plan, they’d have a lethal duo between him and Joey Bosa.
This pick makes sense for several reasons. The Colts have a mediocre Receiving core as is, and Michael Pittman Jr. is also a free agent this year. Additionally, Keon Coleman is the type of Receiver that Chris Ballard loves. He’s big, a freakish athlete, and a vertical ball winner. His foot quickness is rare for a big guy, and he has yet to drop a pass this season. He’d likely develop a chemistry with Anthony Richardson quickly. If this pick happens, which could happen, I see it paying dividends.
NO Acquires: 16th OVR
LV Acquires: 19th OVR, 136th OVR, 2025 Third Rounder
Laiatu Latu is someone I feel is being overhyped by some in the draft community. That isn’t to say he won’t be a good player, but I don’t think he’s a top-ten pick. He just isn’t a special athlete and was able to beat up on weaker Tackles at UCLA. His pass-rush win rate was ridiculous in 2022, and the pass-rush moves are on film. For New Orleans, it makes sense to trade up and get a safe pick like Latu, as this D-Line is a weakness. It didn’t take much to make this trade happen, and it’s a slight chance they regret it.
With Gabe Davis as an upcoming free agent, it makes this Receiver position a necessity to invest in. The Bills are trying to compete with some of the best offenses we’ve seen in years, and I don’t think the defense is the problem. Rome Odunze would help make this offense more explosive and more efficient. He’s a big Receiver at 6’3″ and has over a 70% contested catch rate. His versatility is something this offense could use, and he’s also got reliable hands. Maybe this pick and other off-season changes could put them over the top.
The O-Line play in Cincinnati should be better for a team trying to win a Super Bowl. Graham Barton should be able to help with that, as he’s a pro-ready player with pleasing versatility. He could play Right Tackle or Guard from day one and would immediately make an impact. His get-off and ability to sustain blocks will allow him to excel as a run blocker. While he lacks length, he’s a good enough athlete to compensate for it. You can’t go wrong with the value at 18, either.
NO Acquires: 16th OVR
LV Acquires: 19th OVR, 136th OVR, 2025 Third Rounder
After watching J.J. McCarthy last season, I kind of laughed at the idea of him being an actual prospect. However, he is putting on a beyond-impressive 2023 campaign and has the arm talent to be a star. His accuracy is also a significant strength, as he has had over an 82 adjusted completion percentage so far this year. I’ll have to further evaluate his processor and pocket presence, but the natural traits are there. Have him sit behind a bridge QB for a year, and the Raiders could be cooking in no time.
After figuring out Corner, the Cards have a chance to improve this defense further. The defensive interior is the weakest spot on this roster, and Leonard Taylor would be the best guy there they currently have. His quickness, paired with his raw power, could lead to a stud pass-rush presence quickly. He isn’t the best-run defender, but is still better than who they currently have. Taylor may be raw, but Coach Gannon will get the best out of him here.
KC Acquires: 21st OVR
MIN Acquires: 31st OVR, 94th OVR, 2025 Fourth Rounder
It just makes too much sense for Kansas City to take Armarius Mims. Patrick Mahomes has proven he can still succeed with mediocre Receivers if he has time to throw. Solidifying the Left Tackle spot would allow this offense to continue being highly efficient. The defense is already top-ten, and this draft should be about enhancing the offense. Mims is perfect for this gap-heavy scheme that primarily passes. Mims moves differently at 6’7 “, 340 lbs, and has dismantling power. He’d either have to learn a new position or have Jawaan Taylor play LT, but either way, it should work out.
As Stephon Gilmore is just a bridge player, it’d be wise to invest this pick in Corner. If Dan Quinn remains the DC, Nate Wiggins would be a perfect scheme fit. He is experienced in this Seattle three system and will fit this culture. His man coverage skills will have to improve, although he’s the type of athlete to develop quickly in that area. He’s boasted a 39.1 completion percentage when targeted his way. If he can learn how to play the ball better from Trevon Diggs, this would be a dominant Corner tandem.
DET Acquires: 23rd OVR
PIT Acquires: 30th OVR, 93rd OVR
This Lions offense has come into their own this season, but this defense is still average. Drafting Chop Robinson allows them to have a trump card on defense, being their EDGE duo. Robinson possesses a lethal first step and has the bend to win with pure speed. Teams started drawing more attention towards him, so he hasn’t been quite as dominant, but you can still see the talent. To solidify that kind of EDGE duo is worth trading up for.
While Stroud is showing he’s something special, why not pair him back with his old friend? Not only would Emeka Egbuka have excellent chemistry with Stroud, but he would fill a much-needed position. Egbuka could play everywhere at Receiver for Houston and potentially be their best option. His quickness and reliability would add an element this offense needs. He doesn’t have the best upside but is one of the safest players in the class. I can’t help but love this mock selection.
Corner is not an obvious or immediate need for Miami, but with two aging guys there and a Corner who fits this scheme to a tee, it’s impossible to resist the urge to take Kalen King here. King fits the mold Fangio looks for in Corners, and the value at 25 is too good to pass up. His quickness and fluidity are elite and allow him to flourish in off-man. While undersized, he won’t have to press too often in this scheme. I prefer an O-Linemen here, but if all the good ones are gone, you may as well invest in a damn good Corner.
Even though Seattle drafted Derick Hall last year, I still don’t feel confident about this pass rush. Dallas Turner is the best one left, and this happens to be good value. Turner is only 240 lbs but wins with burst and speed like none other. He also has the length to develop some legit power moves and has the potential to be a solid run defender. We’ll have to see more development from him, which could easily happen in this culture. It’s time to invest upfront after establishing the secondary as a strength.
The one area on this defense that draws any concern heading into 2024 is the secondary. I thought about Corner, but Kam Kinchens is ultimately better than any Corner still available. Tashaun Gibson Sr. is a fine bridge player at FS, but they need a long-term answer. Kinchens has superb ‘range’ with the instincts to dominate as a single high Safety. He plays an underrated position in this defense style and would do wonders for the franchise in the long run.
Jacksonville has been trotting out fringe-level starters at Safety for years, and it’s time to upgrade it. I’m drafting Tyler Nubin to play some of everything but primarily to play Free Safety. While not as rangy as Kinchens, he is more versatile. He’s been impressive in both man coverage and zone coverage. Additionally, he can come up and play in the box. The Jag’s secondary has been good this year, but now you can make it a genuine strength.
Ironically, Kris Jenkins would go from one brother coaching him to another, fitting this culture well. Jenkins is another undersized Defensive Interior who is good in run defense despite being undersized. Furthermore, he can get after the QB. He flashed promising moments as a pass-rusher and consistently made run stops throughout the season. Baltimore needs more youth up front, and Jenkins has a ton of potential that Baltimore could tap into.
DET Acquires: 23rd OVR
PIT Acquires: 30th OVR, 93rd OVR
Cooper DeJean would be an ideal fit for this culture and has the traits to be a fantastic Safety/ Slot Corner in this scheme. I’d imagine he’d play a bit of both, as he is versatile and can thrive in both areas. He may lack burst and agility, but his long speed is legit. With his size, he’d match up well against Tight Ends and bigger Slots. This might seem a little late for DeJean, but it’s just that he plays a position that’s easy to find. Ultimately, this is still a fantastic pick that will pay off quickly.
KC Acquires: 21st OVR
MIN Acquires: 31st OVR, 94th OVR, 2025 Fourth Rounder
I traded down here because the value didn’t fit what they needed. You also secure extra mid-round picks as I traded for Daniel Jones in this mock. At pick 30, Bralen Trice is good value, and it fills a need. They only signed Marcus Davenport to a one-year extension, and Hunter is aging. That makes EDGE a need for Minnesota, and I’ve heard good things about Trice. He’s a big-bodied EDGE, which they like, and appears to have a high upside. Coach Flores should make excellent use of him; there’s a good chance he will become a stud here.
Xavier Worthy isn’t the exact Receiver Philly needs, but he will pair well with Hurts and take attention away from Smith and Brown. Worthy has elite speed that can be used in various ways in this offense. With how this O-Line move blocks, he’d be a menace in the screen game. Additionally, he could grow into an explosive playmaker downfield. Howie Roseman would likely make this type of pick, and I could see why.
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