After watching all of the top QB prospects from this year’s class, I can confidently say Michael Penix Jr. is the most unique QB out of all of them. What makes someone like Penix Jr. so polarizing is due to a few reasons. The biggest reason is his injury past, as he’s had four season-ending injuries. Also, the fact he is left-handed makes him less appealing to some. Additionally, he had some of the best pass-pro in the league and a first-round Receiver in Rome Odunze. With all those factors, it’s easy to write him off. However, anyone who’s watched him play knows there’s something about this guy that might work in the pros. Many fans claim he has this elite arm talent and pocket presence, which are two of the most crucial traits to have at QB. In this article, we’ll try to assess whether that’s the case or not and also break down his strengths and weaknesses.
Six all-22 games and his highlights were evaluated, and clips from his film are broken down here. All relevant traits were graded based on his film. His scouting report also factored in stats and analytics, such as PFF grades. Use promo code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Please gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.
| Profile |
|---|
| 5th QB / 1-2 RD | 6’3″ / 213 | RSx2-SR | Washington |
| Pro Comp |
|---|
| Matt Ryan |
| Scheme |
|---|
| Spread/ Pro |
QB Stats
| 2023 | |
|---|---|
| COM%: 65.5 YPA: 8.8 Pass YDS: 4,906 Pass TDS: 36 | INT: 11 Rush YDS: 80 Rush TDS: 3 FUM: 4 |
| 2022 | |
|---|---|
| COM%: 64.9 YPA: 8.3 Pass YDS: 4,641 Pass TDS: 31 | INT: 8 Rush YDS: 113 Rush TDS: 4 FUM: 2 |
Film Analysis
Michael Penix Jr. shows good anticipation and an outstanding touch on this corner route. He reads its cover one and knows this corner route will beat man coverage and lets it rip before the Receiver makes his final cut. We don’t see this enough from Penix Jr., but it’s nice knowing it’s in him.
Here, Penix Jr. makes a veteran move as he gets the defense to jump offsides, giving him the freedom to throw it deep. In addition to making an intelligent decision, he places this ball in the bread basket, where only his Receiver can make a play on it.
He shows he has what it takes to beat the blitz in this clip. The defense runs a cover three blitz, and Penix has the luxury of good pass-pro. He takes advantage of it as he sees the double move pop open immediately and throws on time with stellar accuracy.
The above Twitter clip is from the senior bowl, where he had a decent day.
Grades
OVR Grade: 1-100
| Individual trait scale (1-7): |
|---|
| 7 – Rare world-class skill; best in the league and no room for improvement | 6 – Great-elite skill; one of the best at that given trait but still has some room to improve | 5 – Very good; above average and has potential to be elite | 4 – Average; able to suffice but, not ideal long-term | 3 – Below average; able to suffice at college level | 2 – Poor; hinders overall play and is a liability to the team | 1 – Awful; not good enough to play given position at any level above D2 | Note: Consistency plays a large factor. |
| Overall Draft grade scale (1-100, realistically: 57-87): |
|---|
| 86 – Perfect prospect | 81 – Bluechip prospect | 80 – Likely all-pro | 79 – Day one quality starter or superstar potential | 78 – Day one starter w/ all-pro upside | 77 – Day one starter w/ high-end upside | 76 – Day One Starter | 75 – Boom or bust | 74 – Will become quality starter within 2-3 years | 73 – Boom or bust (high risk) | 72 – Will become starter within 2-3 years | 71 – Day-one backup with starter upside |
SPD – Speed
ACC – Acceleration
AGI – Agility
STR – Strength
ARM – Arm Strength
REL – Release
TWM – Throwing While Moving
TUP – Throwing Under Pressure
SAC – Short Accuracy
MAC – Intermediate Accuracy
DAC – Deep Accuracy
PRC – Processor
DEC – Decision-Making
PA – Play Action
SPR – Sense Pressure
ELU – Elusiveness/ Contact Balance
SEC – Ball Security
Traits/ Skills
(Grades are subject to change until draft day.)
| Traits | Immediate | Potential |
| SPD | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| ACC | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| AGI | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| STR | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| ARM | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| REL | 5.8 | 6.6 |
| TWM | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| TUP | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| SAC | 5.3 | 6.1 |
| MAC | 5.3 | 6.2 |
| DAC | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| PRC | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| DEC | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| PA | 5.2 | 6.2 |
| SPR | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| ELU | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| SEC | 4.5 | 5.5 |
Michael Penix Jr. Pros and Cons
- Michael Penix Jr. optimizes resilience at the QB position but comes with various question marks as a prospect. While there are inherent risks with drafting him, if anyone can overcome those risks it’s someone like Penix Jr.
Pros
- Raw arm talent is elite; with refined mechanics, he’ll have a top-ten arm in the league.
- Enate ability to locate the ball precisely downfield – led college football in deep passing yards.
- Outstanding poise in the pocket with pressure in his face.
- Gets the ball out so quickly it’s hard to sack the guy.
- Ideal level of aggressiveness for an offense that likes to attack deep.
- Tape is full of highlight reel throws – gets excellent zip when throwing cross-body.
- One of the most efficient QBs in college under play-action.
- Exceptional at processing the first read; you’d just like to see him throw with better anticipation.
- Generally, he has terrific decision-making as he ranks in the top 15 for turnover-worthy throws.
- The top-notch work ethic and leadership are apparent.
Cons
- Unrefined throwing mechanics draw concern given his age.
- Will be 28 years old heading into his fifth year.
- Lacks the burst and quickness to allow him to extend plays.
- Doesn’t set his feet correctly and throws against his body.
- Some of the worst injury past I’ve ever seen in a prospect getting first-round talk.
Combine – TBD
40 yd:
Ten yd:
Shuttle:
Three cone:
Broad Jump:
Vertical:
Bench:
Arm length:
Hand Size:
Pro Day – TBD
40 yd:
Ten yd:
Shuttle:
Three cone:
Broad Jump:
Vertical:
Bench:
Arm length:
Hand Size:
All-22 Exposures
- Arizona, 2023
- Boise State, 2023
- Cal, 2023
- Michigan State, 2023
- Oregon, 2023
- Michigan, 2023
Final Conclusion on Michael Penix Jr.
I have a lot of mixed feelings about Michael Penix Jr. Had he been the prospect he is now in his third college year without the injuries, we’d be talking about a lock top-ten pick. However, that is far from the case, and your age and injury past are two critical factors to consider when deciding on your franchise QB. The more I watched his film, the less appealed I was. That isn’t to say he didn’t show many things I like. I would just notice aspects of his game that were unrefined, and for being a sixth-year player, you wouldn’t expect that. He did miss a bunch of playing time, which is why I believe he has the potential to be a star. It’s hard to write him off but ultimately, most of the other top-tier QBs in this class have a more appealing slate.
The arm talent is unique as he has a ton of power in some of his throws, but with unorthodox throwing mechanics, his arm strength is often hindered. That is something that could certainly improve, but why hasn’t that happened yet considering his age? I get why people think his pocket presence is fantastic as he doesn’t take sacks. Although, that would be something I wouldn’t consider a strength of his. He had incredible pass-pro and got the ball out on time making it very difficult to sack him. I didn’t see enough pocket manipulation and play extension to say it should be any better.
If given an adequate level of coaching, he could certainly improve upon his weaknesses and turn into a stud. Am I willing to bet on that when there are four other QBs with less baggage on them? If it’s the late first or early second, and the top four are off the board, the answer is yes. I just wouldn’t desire him over even someone like Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels. This is a loaded class and it’s hard for Penix to stick out despite having some really promising moments on film. I still have a good feeling about Penix and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him be a top-12 QB down the road. However, in the modern NFL, I don’t realistically see Penix Jr. going in the first round. He simply doesn’t have what teams nowadays value the most. Still, Penix Jr. is as intriguing as a sixth-year senior can get.
Recent Comments