Quarterback Positional Analysis: How to Evaluate QB (part one)

To have an accurate and detailed understanding of football, knowing the nuances and details that are exclusive to each position group is crucial. Many complex topics and terminology vary from each position, which needs to be discussed more in the media. This QB positional analysis is longer than any other position as the Quarterback position is more complicated and extensive than any other position by a wide margin. Multiple YouTube channels in the football community have helped me gain insight into the QB position. I recommend watching “The QB School” for a more detailed perspective on QBs.

Nature of The Position

Evaluating the Quarterback position may be the most fun and interesting to watch but is easily the most difficult to evaluate accurately. In a passing offense, the QB essentially has the task of processing each opposing defender’s movement while simultaneously utilizing a multitude of athletic traits and long-learned techniques. This results in dozens of aspects to account for in a QB. Unlike any other important role in sports, the performance and ability of a QB can be drastically limited and affected by his surrounding circumstance. This results from the immense degree of interconnecting factors that tie into a passing game, mainly the components of the surrounding pass protection or receiving talent. In addition to the difficult nature of assessing a convolution of varying factors, the element of human character has unparalleled importance in the valuation of the position. This aspect can only be speculated and inferred from the perspective of anyone outside of a professional organization. A pattern of disappointments or ‘draft busts’ has resulted from this principle for all positions, but even more so for QBs, as the position is by far the most demanding of character and leadership. Playcalling and schemes can also hide or reveal a player’s strengths and weaknesses, especially in college, as the gap between levels of coaching is immense. In some way or another, everything that makes up an offense is ultimately there to better impact the QB; even halfbacks add value to the passing game by how well they keep defenses honest. These different factors make it rather difficult to separate a player’s ability from their circumstance. 

Physical traits are the foundation of a quarterback’s skill set; this is typically the simplest way to determine what archetype they align with. Applying archetypes to players isn’t always necessary for most positions. Still, specifically for QB, archetypes make it easier to fairly grade mobile passers and pocket passers as they utilize different strengths. And despite a slight adjustment for those who align with the pocket archetype, the same does not correspond with their draft value, as any QB still holds value with an elite arm. Understanding a player’s height and weight in relation to how well they move will indicate their physical mold and potential scheme fit. When doing this, it is important to realize not every QB matches with a traditional archetype or player comparison, as there exist players like Lamar Jackson who don’t align with traditional playstyles.

While measurements like height and weight aren’t relevant to the general success of a QB, they can reveal a degree of pertinency regarding the various essential traits required to compensate adequately. For example, shorter QBs are stipulated to excel in areas such as play extension or running ability. In rare scenarios, someone short like Drew Brees, who was also a below-average athlete in each facet of the game, had to be extraordinarily sharp with elite accuracy to achieve greatness. Due to the rareness of a career like Brees,’ this example must not be used to compare unproven QBs as it is simply too unrealistic of a projection to hand out. This principle must be applied not only to short or unathletic players but all variations of QBs as it reveals precisely the importance of each trait and the likelihood and circumstance it’ll take to fit that player best. To exemplify the most prominent skillset currently in football, reading “Trevor Lawrence QB Scouting Report” would serve that.

Arm Talent

In addition to athleticism, a tool that’s essential to succeed at playing quarterback, especially at the pro level, is arm talent. This can be summarized as the velocity and distance a QB can throw in relation to the quickness of their throwing release. As these factors aren’t precisely correlated with each other, you end up with different variations of arm talent. A simple example would be that some QBs can launch fastballs deep past the numbers but entail a long windup, while some might release the ball with the flick of a wrist and with less distance. In rare cases, there are those with unique arms, like Russell Wilson, who cannot throw with overwhelming velocity but throw unreal moonballs half the field’s distance with precision. Arm talent is crucial in the NFL because of how quickly defenders react and make plays on the ball, and is an absolute requirement for a vertical threat in an offense. Also, having a quick release avoids the potential for pass rushers to disrupt the play. The level of someone’s arm talent can differ significantly and is substantially tethered to the floor and ceiling of a QB. While speed and quickness are easy to see on film and can also be recorded through combine drills, arm talent is not as simple.

A Quarterback’s overall arm strength is ultimately the most valuable single trait they can possess and is easily the most relevant requirement to play in the pros. It’s important to understand that a QBs throwing ability isn’t as black and white as any other physical attribute due to the wide array in which throws can be made. In addition to a QBs raw arm strength, the ability to throw clean passes and release the ball quickly is surprisingly essential and helpful. Being able to get a good strong pass off with the flick of the wrist is massively underrated for apparent reasons, but no matter how strong a player’s arm is, they must be capable of throwing a ball with touch and catchability. Someone like Josh Allen struggled with this early on as he regularly threw fastballs to receivers only yards away from him and could not consistently throw with touch downfield. Josh Allen last season improved significantly in this regard which was a crucial step in his development and could not have led to his elite play had it not been addressed. That scenario exemplifies the nuance related to the conditions of arm talent that need to be accounted for in the scouting process.

A poor arm in college football can be hard to notice as defenders aren’t as quick to react to throws, and receivers’ ball skills often compensate for bad throws against low-level DBs. QBs don’t always have equal opportunities to showcase their arm talent for various reasons, leading to players having better arms than initially scouted. Although QBs velocity is recorded via MPH at the combine/ pro day every year, it does not accurately reflect their total throwing ability as players are constantly showing true arm talent despite recording slower velocities. Deshaun Watson, for example, only recorded a historically bad 49 MPH throw but still proved to have an undoubtedly great arm in live-game. Just in the most recent combine, Justin Herbert threw only 55 MPH (equal to Gardner Minshew) while clearly showing elite arm strength on film. The unreliability of this stat is a great testament to the importance of watching game-film, and to understand the stat in more detail better, I’d recommend reading ‘Ball Velocity Is Bunk’ by Dave Archibald. A simple benchmark for assessing arm strength on film is a passer’s capability of throwing outside the numbers being the accuracy and the time it takes to reach the receiver. Another simple way to get valuable info on a player’s arm strength is to find and watch the longest throw that a QBs attempted in-game. When watching a QB throw downfield, something revealing to look for is how low the ball is to the ground while traveling downfield. This displays distance and velocity together and makes the most noticeable difference in live-game situations. This only gives a basic idea of their general arm strength as there lies an array of tenets corresponding to the subject of accuracy, which will be explained further preceding the objection of accuracy. 

What makes a good throwing release is a bit complex, and there are better analysts out there to explain this particular trait. It essentially comes down to their mechanics and throwing motion which is slightly different for every QB in their natural ability. Each QB will have subtle deficiencies in their release as a young QB, but these will often be fixed by coaches early on. Many raw QBs may have elite arm strength but lack quickness in their release, but with modern coaching, it’s common for this to be drastically improved once in the NFL. YouTuber ‘The QB School’ has very detailed, knowledgeable breakdowns of subjects like this, and Next Gen Stats has also had stats to reveal the speed of QBs throwing release times.

Accuracy

The traditional narrative throughout history is that accuracy is a result of natural talent and is a non-fixable trait or is at most seldomly improved upon. While there is at least a bit of truth to that narrative, it’s becoming less apparent each year as we’re continually seeing young undeveloped QBs show significant improvements in accuracy. Many factors have led to this evolution, but the most obvious is the manifestation of an offense/ passing league. Because of the countless rules in favor of offense and constant innovation of play-calling/ schemes, football favors the better QB. In addition, the evolution of coaching and technology has greatly benefited the development of accuracy through a progression of throwing mechanics and with the help of advanced technology. In recent years, we’ve seen two specific cases in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who’ve unexpectedly defied the odds of drastically improving their accuracy at the pro level.

It’s first important to state what it actually means to be an inaccurate passer, something that’s widely misunderstood by casual fans. Saying someone is inaccurate doesn’t mean they’re incapable of throwing an accurate ball on any given pass but rather means the rate at which the passes a QB makes are inaccurate is lower than ideal. Being inaccurate can substantially lower a QBs floor and is often the reason holding back physically talented players from succeeding. The trait accuracy may seem rather unambiguous to the casual fan. Still, with further accounting, it’s evident that a great deal of importance varies regarding contingent standards and scale of proficiency when assessing the trait.

Foremost, accuracy can be divided into two sub-traits: (1) precision/ ‘ball placement’ and (2) the consistency of which throws are accurate. It’s important to decipher the meaning between accuracy and precision as they vary from player to player and reveal a significant difference regarding the ceiling and floor of a player. Precision or ball placement in football can be defined as the exact location a throw is intended to reach and is the ability to throw receivers open. On the other hand, accuracy is simply the rate at which passes reach the general vicinity of a target – in other words; accuracy means consistency. The reason for separating the two is that they both emanate from different fundamental premises, revealing information regarding those premises. Precision is mainly a result of one’s raw throwing ability and instincts, whereas general accuracy relies on refined mechanics and consistency. There then lies an array of potential external factors in regard to the context of a given throw which will be further explained alongside the same principle that is also applicable to the trait of arm strength. 

Regarding contextual impacts on accuracy, the most apparent factor is the varying level of impact that the distance/ position of a throw has on one’s accuracy. It’s traditionally only been necessary to factor in only two levels of depth and distance when grading accuracy; being short/ intermediate level accuracy and deep level accuracy. Recently in NFL, there’s been a significant difference between short and intermediate accuracy among some current starters. Kyler Murray, for example, has excelled throwing short and deep, but not in the intermediate area for the most part, which is evidently due to his height. The difference in the value of these three depth levels does not vary much in general across the league but does vary more depending on the scheme.

The ‘Shanahan’ wide zone style offense particularly emphasizes accuracy over the middle of the field, whereas spread schemes emphasize quick-short accuracy more. The term for the wide-zone scheme, when regarding it from the perspective of a QB, is called a play-action offense. In a play-action offense, the wide-zone running game puts pressure on linebackers to over-commit to the run, which allows for plays to open up over the middle when play-action is executed.

When evaluating QBs across the league, ‘short/ int. Accuracy carries greater weight than ‘deep accuracy’ in the overall grade of a player but also has a greater abundance in the current trends, whereas ‘deep accuracy’ is less often needed but adds a much greater value and tends to be rarer. Although the vast majority of throws will occur no farther than 20 yards downfield, the ones that are thrown that deep are independently more valuable and are typically at more crucial points in the game. While there is analytics capable of providing valuable information regarding accuracy, nothing will reveal more than what the player leaves on film. The basic stat of adjusted completion percentage (ACP) in relation to their average depth of target (ADOT) is a relatively fair basis for a passer’s accuracy. Still, it will never perfectly replicate how accurate a QB is. A simple stat like this doesn’t account for how precise a throw is or how much it missed its target. Although there is advanced analytics that reveals the precision of throws by showing the precise location a ball reached in relation to the receiver’s body, it is absolutely necessary to know why the ball was placed where it was; sometimes a ball is thrown slightly behind an in-breaking receiver to avoid a big hit or to avoid another defender playing the ball in coverage. You’ll also see QBs throw more out in front of outbreaking receivers and higher passes thrown to taller targets. While shorter QBs have to throw from unordinary angles to avoid getting the ball batted down. These are all aspects of passing that could only be analyzed through the act of actually watching rather than relying on stats that appear to be revealing. 

Traits That Affect Accuracy

When looking beyond the basics of arm talent and accuracy, there is a substantial degree of nuance in regard to the constituency of a Quarterback’s throwing ability. A variation of contextual details must be accounted for in relation to the velocity and distance of a throw. Deciphering the exact conditions of every play is the only sufficient way of accurately assessing the unabridged characteristics of one’s throwing ability. These exterior forces are almost always related to the QB’s feet in relation to the throw. The QB’s feet should be but are not always tethered to the direction of the target as their throwing stance moves in sync with the changing direction of their reads. This is done to best leverage arm strength and accuracy; the degree to which this occurs in relation to how it affects the throws of a QB must be accounted for. Because there’s no precise way of measuring this, it’s important to observe the conditions of one’s throwing stance and understand proper throwing mechanics to best analyze a player’s capabilities and limitations. The type of film that reveals these factors is invaluable to the assessment of one’s throwing ability as actual differences are most palpable when: throwing downfield off-platform, out of stance, while running simultaneously; releasing a throw contested by a lineman, throwing preceding immediate contact or in rare cases throwing cross body or while being pulled to the ground. The level at which QBs can handle these inevitable factors varies significantly.

One could argue that these sorts of adaptable skills are among the multiple elements that make up the general trait people call the ‘IT Factor’. It is also the cause of the seamless polarity amongst the performances of QBs in the NFL. It also must be known that the value of possessing each attribute varies in significance. In addition, every attribute stems from three broad traits responsible for the level of proficiency regarding each attribute. These broad traits are simply the main facets required to play the position being one: throwing mechanics, two: natural instincts, and three: raw arm strength, all of which contribute to arm talent and accuracy. The parameters of these traits distinguish them from each other, though there is a variation of overlap which can be sorted with further explanation.

One specific attribute in addition to arm strength that makes up a QBs total arm talent is the ability to throw while moving. Typically, the more nimble athletes possess this trait, although there is the Roethlisberger’s of the world who can also sling it on the move and throw without their feet set. The ability to throw off-platform and or crossbody has recently become more appreciated by wide consensus than any other individual attribute – due to its captivating appeal, the casual fanbase has overvalued its importance. Despite the fact that nearly all of the top-tier QBs in the league excel at this, it does not carry great importance as an individual trait in regard to the overall evaluation of a player. Accounting for this skill is only to help project the level of play a QB will have outside of the pocket. Depending on the scheme and conditions of an offense, the importance of this trait will differ substantially.

This trait allows the QB to execute a scramble drill and not worry about having a clean throwing stance, which is why this attribute is so relevant in modern football. Although most play-action-based offenses require a proficient degree of this trait to be possessed, pro-style offenses don’t often require such throws to be made on the move. It is common to see QBs be forced to scramble at high rates for the sole reason the O-line is poor, but in most cases, players can still succeed without elite throw-on-the-move ability. For the purpose of scouting, seeing a player throw off-platform or while moving will help reveal a player’s raw arm strength, given in the scenario of throwing off-platform, the leverage of one’s lower body in their throwing motion is depleted. These throws also require an instinctive feel for ball placement, as the direction of one’s target would be thrown off in that scenario. Fortunately, because there really isn’t any analytics or stats dedicated to measuring this particular ability in a precise form, this trait is simple to evaluate on film and is also easy to find examples through highlights. 

Part Two