Quarterback Positional Analysis: How to Evaluate QB (part two)

This is part two of a two-part series and suggests reading part one if you haven’t already.

Ability to Sense Pressure

Perhaps the most underrated trait in the modern age of football is ‘pocket sense,’ which crosses into the ability to extend plays. While these two traits aren’t typically viewed as a requirement to succeed in football, being able to keep plays alive with your feet and avoid sacks in the pocket gives an immeasurable advantage to an offense and has been a crucial factor in the success of every elite QB in the recent years. This is especially true given the modern trends, as linebackers and pass rushers are more athletic than ever.

The two traits ‘play extension’ and ‘pocket sense’ are graded separately though there lies a substantial correspondence between them in a specific way. While play extension could be defined as the ability to elude sacks and improvise upon plays outside of the pocket, ‘pocket sense’ is the comfortability and degree of awareness of the pressure around him as well as the ability to recognize blitzes pre-snap. A simplified way of explaining it is to say play extension is the sum total of athleticism, elusiveness, and pocket sense. That isn’t to say play extension is always most heavily weighted on athleticism, as a younger Tom Brady would have no issues buying time and making plays outside of the pocket due to his rare ability to manipulate pressure.

Even though the QB’s ability to accelerate and weave in and out of traffic in the pocket is required to be above average in a lot of cases, it’s crucial not to undervalue the significance of the mental aspect in this subject, as it can easily be overlooked. In order to have high-level pocket sense, the QB must have the awareness to recognize blitzes, the instincts to react to moving pass rushers, and the comfortability to stay calm, all while processing the coverage downfield. Regarding how footwork can affect this trait, a very common mistake seen in younger players is what’s called heal-clicking. This is when the QB has the heels of their cleats bounce up or ‘click’ slightly as they shift directions in the pocket. Good footwork is when the QB keeps their cleats in the ground and has a straight and narrow base to throw from. Because the ability to extend plays significantly relies upon one’s pocket sense and footwork, it isn’t often you’ll see inexperienced QBs with elite play extension despite them being elite athletes.

Another reason to grade these separately is in some cases, a player will have elite play extension but not the ability to recognize blitzes at a high level. Factoring this into the overall grade of a QB will allow it to reflect a more nuanced representation of various players. Due to the hyper-athletic nature of modern pass rushers across the league and lack of depth among O-lineman, these two attributes are rather higher on the list of non-physical traits, though some teams will value it less depending on the state of their O-line and/or scheme. In order to evaluate this trait, pay attention to what exactly led to the sack. You’ll often be able to tell if a sack is on the QB or because something went wrong in pass pro/ playcalling.

Traits That Affect Accuracy, Cont.

Another trait that regards the principle of contextual impacts on accuracy is the ability to throw under pressure. This trait only carries a small weight in regard to their overall grade but is something that varies in a very noticeable manner across the league. Some of the aspects of ‘pocket sense’ also translate to the proficiency of this trait but are still graded separately as it addresses the impact on accuracy rather than the process, which leads to a throw. When assessing this particular ability, everything the QB does up to the point of the throw is irrelevant. This is simply the degree to which a pass is affected in the case where the QB knows they are taking a hit, ensuing the throw.

This trait can be attributed to toughness, confidence, instincts, and size in relation to their throwing motion. Because size and strength help in this regard, this is mostly a natural skill and is something that remains inconsistent even amongst quality starters. Although Shorter QBs are placed at a disadvantage in this regard, this is hardly an issue in most instances when a QB is athletic, as that allows them to compensate for any given pressure.

A way to get a baseline measurement of this trait is by simply analyzing a player’s ‘under pressure’ stats compared to their ‘kept clean’ stats on pff.com. However, when doing this, it’s important to account for the sample size and its duration, as there might be small factors that manipulate these numbers when only viewed on a small scale. This means it is often best for college prospects to assess this trait through ‘game film’ as there typically isn’t a large sum of games to draw from. This trait ultimately is a less relevant thing to look for in a QB but is still a subtle element that can help separate elite play from the average.

Ball Security

Although this isn’t often talked in the media, ball security for QBs can, at times be a game-changer. The vast majority of NFL QBs have good ball security, but for those who don’t, it adds a layer of inconsistency to their game. It is more specifically something good to look for in college players; it even helps just to view QB fumble stats when they enter the draft. What leads to poor ball security as a QB comes down to three things, which are fundamentals, pocket presence, and sometimes just flat-out recklessness. In addition, some QBs simply struggle more than others to consistently execute play-action or RPOs without fumbling it in the exchange. This is less of an issue that’s typically seen but is still something to note.

The fundamentals aspect mainly comes down to having the proper throwing motion when under pressure and also having the right hold on the ball as a runner. The QBs ability to sense pressure makes a huge difference, as pressure that comes in fast and from the QBs blind side is often what causes them to fumble most. When the QB is not cognisant of where the pass rush is coming from and/ or not poised standing in the pocket, it leaves them very susceptible to a sack-fumble play. Some QBs have magnificent abilities to hold on to the ball while taking blindside hits or even right as they’re about to throw it. The last issue, which is also one that leads to unnecessary hits, is recklessness. This may be the most common issue seen in younger QBs as it seems to be a habit and a skill that takes time to develop. With that being said, it’s also a very coachable trait as well. Nonetheless, it is important to look for QBs that have trouble not sliding or getting out of bounds in their early years as it’s subtle but important info to have.

The Difference Play-Action Makes

One small detail that’s important to touch on that rarely gets accounted for is the ability to fake a handoff and execute play-action passing. The skill of drawing linebackers towards the halfback while a receiver running a crosser pops wide up over the middle of the field can be an integral detail to the success of many modern offenses. Though the dexterity of one’s play-action ability doesn’t vary significantly from player to player, there is a threshold that must be met in order to suffice in a lot of particular offenses. Something that’s grown in popularity greatly over the past few seasons is the wide zone run/play action-style offense. This scheme forces linebackers to guess for handoffs or play fakes and also gives the opportunity for misdirection and getting playmakers open in space. This is what teams like the 49ers, Rams, Packers, and a few others constantly run on offense to force mistakes on linebackers and avoid quick d-lineman. This isn’t a trait that is going to make or break a QB in any scheme but is something to pay attention to when it’s relevant. For the teams who don’t heavily use play action, it’s obviously not as necessary to be above average but will still add a small percentage of value to a QBs skillset. It’s important to note that this trait can rather easily be coached up to a higher level and is more of an effort-based trait. A lot of QBs have to develop this aspect in the pros while some are just naturally skilled at faking handoffs.

The QB’s Processor: Pre-snap IQ and Post-snap Processor

The last aspect of playing QB to go over is the mental aspect of playing Quarterback. An aspect of quarterbacking that’s integral to the success and efficiency of offenses is the ability to process defenses and make good decisions. This is the most challenging aspect of playing QB, and it consists of two equally important traits, processing and decision-making. These two traits don’t always exactly correspond with each other but do go hand-in-hand on a given play. The proficiency in the QBs processing ability in relation to the opposing defense’s play-call is the main determining factor in the conditions of decision-making on a given play. Due to that reason, it makes sense first to establish a basic understanding of the nuance in processing defenses to then subsequently explain the same for decision-making in a more intuitive manner.

A QB must process the defense in two different aspects, which are pre-snap and post-snap. Pre-snap awareness or football IQ is the ability to use the info that the defensive formation is revealing to understand best what to expect in relation to the play that’s about to occur. The purpose of processing pre-snap is to prepare for what coverage to expect and also to determine which receiver is the first read. With the understanding of how and why a defense is lined up the way it is, the QB knows where to likely go with the football and or can make an adjustment to the play. Typically based on the defensive pre-snap alignment, the QB picks which side of the field he’ll first hitch to. This, more often than not, will allow the QB to have both his first and second read on that field, making it as simple as possible.

A QB’s pre-snap awareness is sometimes hard to analyze, mainly because what is actually going on pre-snap is not always obvious or revealable to the viewer. A simple example where a QB shows this in a game would be a situation where the defensive alignment is showing a zero blitz, and the play doesn’t have a quick man beater. In this scenario, the QB would simply call a short post to one of his receivers, with that being the first read, while also having a plan of where to go if there is no blitz. While that’s a rather simplistic example, pre-snap processing goes immensely beyond that level, as communicating pass protection and reading blitzes and disguised coverages can get very complicated. 

More critical than pre-snap awareness is the QB’s ability to process the defense post-snap. While pre-snap processing significantly helps, how they react once the play has begun is not only more important but more difficult. Every play drawn up by coaches always has its intended first and second option in addition to a check-down. Processing is the ability and quickness at which the QB can progress through these options. QBs with more advanced processors can do what’s called anticipation, where they can process and see in their own head the receiver breaking open right before it actually happens. Guys Like Tom Brady, Payton Manning, and Drew Brees were incredible at consistently anticipating throws. Being able to anticipate a big-time throw will compensate for a lack of arm talent, but that is also rare to see.

A simplified example of poor processing is simply not seeing the intended first read, which is open, and instead going to the second read, which is not nearly as open. This may look like an error in decision-making, but more often than not, it’s because they read the wrong coverage. A classic example is when the QB consistently goes to his first option regardless of the coverage. At the college level, recognizing coverages is much more simple, and at the NFL level, D-coordinators are always trying to confuse young QBs with various blitzes and disguised coverages. This is the primary reason why QBs with great physical traits have failed in the pros, as it takes immense hard work to reach that proper level. Modern offenses have started to change this as in addition to the difference the wide-zone running game has made, the aspect of motion has made a big difference as well. This is because it helps QBs identity man coverage at a much higher rate when used correctly.

When it comes to the detailed process of going through progressions and making reads, there are other analysts out there, such as ‘The QB School‘, who do a much better job explaining this particular subject, but I’ll give a basic understanding of the important aspects of it. On traditional passing plays, the QB has three different dropbacks they can use in addition to a shotgun, and which one is used depends on the depth of the receiving targets. The three dropbacks consist of a three-step, a five-step, and a seven-step. Usually, short-passing concepts are a three-step, intermediate ones are a five-step, and deep ones are a seven-step. Once fully dropped back in the pocket, the QB has hitches in their throwing stance that move in relation to the direction of their target. Each receiving option should be tethered to the direction of the QB stance, meaning that the time it takes for the route to develop must be parallel to the time it takes for the QB to hitch into the proper throwing stance. How quickly this process is executed is very important, and when not done quickly leads to sacks or ill-advised decisions. It is also a problem when press coverage throws off the timing of the routes with the QB, and this leads to them either checking down or needing to improvise.

An element of football that is still rather new is the aspect of run-pass-options or RPOs in addition to the evolution of designed read options. While it’s not important to fully dive into read options here, it is important to bring up due to the change it’s had on passing concepts. RPOs have become so popular because of how simple they are for the QB when practiced right and the ability they have to take advantage of inexperienced linebackers. In addition, using them works excellently to minimize the opposing defense’s pass rush. This is because it is played out quickly and, when executed properly, is a very low-risk play. RPOs basically demand the linebacker to either pick between the run-option or the pass-option and whichever one isn’t covered gets targeted. Because there is often a built-in second receiving option, it puts great strain on the players defending the middle of the field. While defenses have come up with ways to defend this better, it has only opened up other aspects of the passing offense even more.

Because some offenses are using RPOs, but with the QB as the possible run threat, it is giving those with dual-threat skillsets an unparalleled numbers advantage. This is because the QB does not block after handing it off, so when the QB can rush, they have that extra blocker. With creativity, O-coordinators can even design QB RPOs with two extra blockers on one side of the field. Because of elements like this, the modern passing game is better than ever, and it’s always interesting to see how good defenses plan for modern offenses now.

It is true that a QB doesn’t always need to be an expert on reading defenses to have success. Hall of Famer Brett Farve even said himself he didn’t know what the nickel defense meant for a good portion of his career. Patrick Mahomes also talked about how he didn’t exactly know how to read coverages his first year playing. Even with this being true, it is unfair and unrealistic to expect any QB can have the success those players had without being good in this category. This is because those players are extreme outliers among everyone else. Not only were they extraordinarily talented, but they excelled in traits like decision making and Mahomes has always had rare instincts and a natural vision of the field.

Decision Making

The next trait that goes hand and hand with football IQ and processing is decision-making. It is important to decipher between these two things because they aren’t necessarily correlated in caliber for each individual player. While a QB can excel at pre-snap processing, has great vision, and can read defenses like a book, it doesn’t always lead to them making the best possible throws. A perfect example of this is how veteran QBs start to make much more turnover-worthy plays at the end of their career. When this happens, it’s not usually because of regression in their processor, but either a loss of confidence or them not accepting their physical regression. Another example of when decision-making from an individual player varies is when injuries start to occur, or a possible replacement is drafted.

When it comes to assessing decision-making, it can be a bit complicated as there is a fine balance to look for when watching players. Although this is more so a personal preference, it is generally better to have overly aggressive decision-makers than overly conservative ones. Making conservative decisions in today’s NFL just doesn’t contribute to a good formula for winning. With that being said, it can sometimes be even worse to have the worst case of over-aggressiveness, as seen with Jameis Winston. Although, in the case of guys like Winston and Carson Wentz, their processor is more of a diminishing factor. The fine balance of decision-making comes from an understanding of your limits and being able to make sporadic risk vs reward calculations. Decision-making is impressive when the QB has to improvise due to pressure or good coverage and makes the right throw or run after the intended play has broken down. It is not impressive when a QB sees a five-man blitz and immediately goes right to the check-down, or when an athletic QB takes a short-yardage throw instead of a big-time run.

When comparing Dak Prescott to Matt Stafford who is in the same tier, Stafford’s decision-making often leads him to more impactful and meaningful plays. In many instances, QBs who mainly throw cheap and easy check-downs could even make the argument that they’re technically making the right reads. If you factor analyze the traits of all of the great QBs of our time, the biggest determiner of greatness is their fearlessness and ability to calculate risks. And it is important for the QBs that are risk takers to make decisions with context and calculation, meaning accounting for the defensive matchup, time, and situation of the game, and understanding offensive strengths and limitations. In 2007, Tom Brady threw 73 deep passes (20 yards+) which is above his typical 60 deep passes due to having a deep threat in Randy Moss and their stout O-line. Without those surrounding elements, it would simply look much different and Brady’s shown to adapt his game in correspondence to his circumstances; this is one of the attributes that makes Brady a legend.

Decision making in football is ultimately what the QB decides to do with the ball once they have executed the process of going through their reads. While some QBs don’t always know the coverage they’re facing and can’t consistently go through their progressions, it isn’t exactly rare to see those same players be great at taking calculated risks and know just the right time to bail the pocket. Russell Wilson is a prime example of this as he’s known for not being able to process at the same speed as others but has undoubtedly been incredible at making the right final decisions. This shows in players like Wilson as their time to throw will be considerably high but their big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy throw ratio is among the best. While something like having a league-average processor can be minimized through playcalling, decision-making has seemed to be one of the main traits that contribute to what people call the ‘IT’ factor.

Conclusion

Everything that’s been discussed and analyzed through this Quarterback series has taken years of time spent watching and reading about it. All of the individual topics that were discussed could be broken down even further, but it’s only feasible to explain so much. Ultimately everything said is just an opinion, although I believe there is a large amount of substantial evidence to back up most of these claims. The purpose of this is to educate and give insight into one of the most interesting subjects in sports to anyone who is interested. In addition to the ‘QB School’, a big thanks must go out to ‘That Franchise Guy‘, and PFF for giving me so much valuable information as well as the inspiration to make these types of posts. I hope you enjoyed please leave your feedback on Twitter @FootballIntell4, any questions will get answered.