Ranking Quarterbacks is among the football community’s most popular and exciting things. QBs are, bar none, the most critical position on the field. Therefore, casual fans need to have a good grasp on where each QB ranks and what their strengths and weaknesses are. There are many misconceptions due to the usage of stats, and I’ve watched countless hours of film on these QBs to relay the most accurate rankings possible. This is part three of a three-part series. I suggest reading part two if you haven’t already.

My rankings will drastically differ from the consensus opinion on this topic. That is because I have a unique perspective on how I view them and consider multiple nuanced factors for their evaluation, and most casual fans are unaware of these factors. This list is intended to relay the most accurate and realistic rankings of the overall talent and value each relevant QB possesses heading into the 2023 season.

It may be confusing to look at the variable scheme grades. That is because every NFL playbook has differences, and it is only feasible to include three schemes that each have different variations. These scheme grades aren’t here to necessarily say which exact scheme fits him best, but rather to say what kind of general skillset they have.

The order was assembled considering the QB’s on-field performance (from ‘all-22-film’) in relation to their surrounding circumstances while reconciling their film with multiple forms of advanced analytics. Performances and stats from the past three seasons are considered, and younger QBs will have their college evaluation taken into account.

QBs with the plus sign (+) are players expected to improve this season. QBs with the (!) sign are injury risks. It is important to note that whatever impact a QB has on their team’s culture is not factored into their grade. Rookies from 2023 are omitted, as it isn’t exactly fair to compare them to current NFL starters when none of them have NFL film to go off of. My QB rankings for the 2023 NFL draft can be found here.

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QB Formula key

Grading scale: 1-7

OVR Scale: 15-100

12. Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott is among the most polarizing QBs currently in the league. Some people think he’s a top-five QB, while others think he’s just an average starter. He is genuinely closer to the middle rather than lying in one of those extremes. Similar to Tua, Dak doesn’t have a great arm and is forced to play perfectly in order to succeed. When he doesn’t play perfectly, it looks ugly. While he can rapidly get through his reads when he’s on, he is prone to throwing picks when he isn’t on. That is because he throws a pickable pass and needs to have excellent anticipation to avoid interceptions. Over the years, Dak has gotten considerably better at playing under pressure. He doesn’t take as many unnecessary sacks and has better accuracy when under pressure. Dak may not be the guy you should pay an enormous contract, but he guarantees the team will be competitive.

11. Trevor Lawrence

After a dismaying rookie season, Trevor Lawrence has evolved into the QB we all hoped he’d become. The potential showed in flashes in year one, but his inability to process defenses caught up to him. That was an issue he significantly improved upon, and he was more consistent. In 2022, inconsistencies still popped up in his accuracy, but he tended to finish games strong. Lawrence had an awful first half against LA in the playoffs but battled back and had one of the most heroic comebacks we’ve ever seen. That comeback was a testament to his perseverance and resilience.
Furthermore, Lawrence dramatically improved his ability to sense pressure which was a huge stepping stone in his development. He was awe-inspiring playing in structure last year and showed he had what it took to improvise when he had to. While you could nitpick his decision-making mistakes and inconsistencies, he is still very young and headed in the right direction. He and Doug Pederson are a potent combo and are very exciting for the league.

10. Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has become one of the many examples that QBs can develop significantly. His growth going back to college has been nothing short of remarkable. The physical traits have always been there, and it was simply a matter of everything mental about the game that held him back. After years of incremental development, his time finally came, and he stunningly led the Eagles to a Super Bowl. His decision-making and pre-snap processor improved dramatically over one season. He used to be a first-read QB, but now he gets through his reads like nothing.
Hurts kept his turnover-worthy play rate down while maximizing big-time throw opportunities. Moreover, his deep accuracy is a thing of beauty. He has excellent touch on passes and enough zip to reach deep on the sidelines. As a runner, he changes the game significantly. He’s a quick and fast player with good girth to his frame. That makes for a tough runner to stop, and he utilizes that strength as a passer. Hurts has genuinely turned into one of the most admirable players in football, and it will be highly entertaining to see him try to get back to the Super Bowl.

9. Matthew Stafford

You may not expect to see Stafford ranked in the top ten after what we saw last year, but until we see him post-surgery, it’s unfair to drop him any further. I graded him worse than last year, but he only moves up due to the regression of other top QBs. If his arm is still like it used to be, expect him to play like a top-ten QB. However, if his arm suffers regression, he may not even be a top-16 QB. When he played last year, the deep ball was evidently there. His ball placement is impeccable when he is hot.
Furthermore, he does an exceptional job of maneuvering the pocket. It’s hard to sack a guy like Stafford because of his size and poise in the pocket. Stafford, like always, still has fearless decision-making and does a fine job of reading defenses. One of the best things about him is he is clutch and plays his best when it matters most. Although his team has many holes, he gives them a decent shot at winning games.

8. Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray may not be the ideal leader of an organization, but his talent on the field is undeniable. Fans act like he’s some injury-prone bust, but in reality, this is a former MVP frontrunner and someone who took the Cards out of the dumps. There’s a reason they went from picking number one overall to playing in the playoffs shortly after. Keep in mind that was with a subpar coach.
His athletic ability and arm talent are immense and a significant reason he ranks so high on this list. Murray can make a play out of nothing with his legs and can make practically any throw you ask of him. Additionally, he has come along well mentally since getting drafted. His processor is an underrated element of his game. He quickly moves on to his second read and knows when to get aggressive.
Two areas he struggled in recently are throwing under pressure and throwing deep. He thrived in These two areas before, but for whatever reason, he wasn’t the same last year. Statistically, it was an abysmal season throwing deep, but that isn’t to say his deep ball isn’t there anymore. He went down on a non-contact injury, so I don’t expect injuries to plague him further. Murray is far from the perfect franchise QB, but he brings a lot of valuable elements to his game. His comeback will be an exciting one.

7. Deshaun Watson

It’s tough not to be bothered by the off-field issues, but Deshaun Watson is an outstanding talent at QB. He’s a legit escape artist from the pocket and was the main reason Houston wasn’t an abysmal team years ago. However, his time away from football obviously negatively affected him. Last year, he showed accuracy concerns and had trouble playing in rhythm. The ball placement that was so immaculate just years ago isn’t the same. With that being said, there’s a good chance he will revert to his old self after an offseason spent with the team.
I am more worried about what happened to his athleticism. It appears he’s gained weight since becoming a Brown, which affected his mobility. He’s still a superb player at escaping the pocket, but he’s just less explosive than he once was. I also noticed some sacks that fell on Watson due to his lack of sense maneuvering the pocket. If he can improve on small things like that, he can return to playing at a Superstar level. Although until that happens, we have to consider the last season appropriately.

6. Lamar Jackson

Over the years, Lamar Jackson has turned into one of my favorite players. His game has evolved over the past couple of seasons, and it’s lovely to see. Rather than primarily relying on his legs, he’s started to throw from the pocket much more often. As he’s gained weight, it’s easier for him to hang in the pocket more comfortably. You have to give him credit for realizing the inherent flaw in his game and addressing it. While he’s not perfect, he’s still an exceptional passer. He may not be the best, but he’s just enough to make his team a dark horse super bowl contender.
One particular area Jackson thrives in is throwing over the middle. Like Stafford and Mayfield, he has fearless decision-making over the middle of the field. His arm isn’t elite, but it is plenty enough to hit big-time throwing opportunities. When it comes to sensing pressure, he has finally unlocked that aspect of his game. He knows just when to scramble and takes fewer unnecessary sacks. There’s still room to grow when throwing under pressure, but it’s generally been better. If he can stay healthy for an entire season, expect Jackson to be on a mission.

5. Justin Herbert

As previously mentioned, I was once not a believer in Justin Herbert. He dramatically exceeded my expectations and has quickly become a star at QB. Last year wasn’t his best, but he was dealing with an injury, and the team generally wasn’t healthy either. He still showed some very redeemable things last year. When he was healthy, his deep ball was highly potent, and it’s only one year later from when he was one of the best deep throwers. His raw arm strength is on par with Mahomes, though his release isn’t great. His accuracy in throwing on the move also differentiates him from Mahomes. He is less lethal throwing in the short-intermediate but is still excellent.
Moreover, Herbert has an outstanding play extension ability to succeed when the play breaks down. Where he needs to improve is his processor. While his decision-making is terrific, he struggles a little if his first read isn’t there. Although, that issue should be minimized with high-end receivers and a clever offensive coordinator. Besides that, there isn’t much to gripe about with Herbert. I expect him to return strong and lead the Chargers to another playoff birth in a challenging AFC.

4. Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers undoubtedly had some rough stretches in 2022, but he’s poised for a legendary comeback. Rodgers does the best when he’s got pressure underneath him, and this season he’ll have more pressure than he’s had in years. It wasn’t like Rodgers was physically washed last year, but he wasn’t all there mentally. The injury also affected his passing ability the past year, which shouldn’t be bugging him this year. There were plenty of uncharacteristic misses and missed reads last year, though every elite QB goes through rough periods.
He’s still got a superb deep ball and is one of the best at knowing when to go deep. While his processor has regressed to a degree, he has nearly perfect decision-making when locked in. His accuracy is generally some of the best around when an injury doesn’t plague him. Additionally, he has an elite pocket presence and the ability to manipulate the pocket. Despite the lack of athletism, he can extend plays rather well and doesn’t give up a ton of sacks. Playing behind an incredible defense and with multiple stellar offensive players, expect Rodgers to play like a top-five QB again.

3. Josh Allen

Josh Allen has become perhaps the most exhilarating QB in football. With one of the most incredible arms in league history and elite running ability, he can sometimes be an unstoppable force. However, in some cases, we see a much more troubled version of Allen. His inability to consistently read the coverage and take what’s given to him will get him into trouble. He also doesn’t have the best ball security, which sometimes makes for turnover risk. When Josh Allen is firing on all cylinders, no other QB could match him. It’s just we don’t always see that version of him.
An area Allen dominates in compared to other QBs is his pocket presence and ability to make accurate throws under pressure. He’s one of those QBs that can make a jaw-dropping throw while being taken to the ground – but he does it regularly. The stats and film will prove why Allen’s so good in this department. With a massive stature and a powerful release, he makes throws under pressure look easy. He also has some of the most outstanding accuracy in the league at all levels of the field. The sky is the limit if Allen can get past his turnover issues.

2. Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow has quickly segmented himself as one of the few elite QBs in the NFL. There is often a debate about who’s better between Allen and Burrow, and due to the little things, Burrow should be the answer. The ability to quickly go through progressions and make the accurate read while taking into account the context of the situation is all there and then some with Burrow. He rarely ever makes mistakes and almost always capitalizes on big plays. Burrow thrives, whether it’s playing in structure or having to improvise. That’s what’s so special about the man.
His intermediate accuracy is consistently flawless for the most part. The one notable weakness of his game is his relatively weak arm. However, with terrific anticipation and deep accuracy, he compensates for it. His escapability out of the pocket is top-notch. He has an excellent first step and times his breaks from the pocket well. There is very little to nitpick about Burrow’s game, as he is nearly perfect across the board. He is practically the only reason his team can compete for Super Bowls, and it’ll be fun to see him battle for another appearance.

1. Patrick Mahomes

It’s tough to find reasons why Patrick Mahomes isn’t the best QB in football right now. What we’ve witnessed over the past few years is simply all-time greatness. His physical traits are all you could look for in a QB. With a piss missile for an arm, a lightning-quick release, and an elite first step, he is the ultimate package. Additionally, he is in the conversation for having the best overall accuracy in the league. The ball placement on some of his passes is utterly remarkable. He had a rough stretch where he missed passes and made mistakes but quickly and strongly bounced back. When he’s playing like his usual self, he rarely misses throws.
Furthermore, when the game is on the line, he typically takes a step up and will have flawless decision-making. In the last super bowl, he had one of the most miraculous moments in NFL history. After further injuring his ankle, he came up with one of the most clutch scrambles we’ve seen in a Super Bowl. The play was a testament to his toughness and fearless nature. There’s a good reason he’s already won two Super Bowls against outrageously good teams. Mahomes is a precious gift to the football community, and we should all treasure it.