Quarterback rankings are very popular among the NFL community and for good reason. QBs are always the biggest cornerstone piece of a consistent, winning franchise, and there tends to be a significant polarization among fans who compare them to each other. As mentioned in my ‘QB Analysis‘ it’s generally more popular and interesting to discuss the QB position than it is any other position. There are dozens of useful stats that give fans great insight into certain aspects of the game. This leads to many different people having different perspectives on QBs in general based on what info they have. The fact that many fans are so passionate about one team leads to a lot of biased takes from fans over social media. My rankings will be drastically different from the consensus opinion on this specific topic. That is because I have a unique perspective on how I view them and take into account multiple nuanced factors for their evaluation and most casual fans are not aware of these factors. This list is intended to relay the most accurate and realistic rankings of the overall talent and value that each relevant QB possesses heading into the 2022 season. The order was assembled taking into account the QB’s on-field performance (from ‘all-22-film’) in relation to their surrounding circumstances while reconciling their film with multiple forms of advanced analytics. Performances and stats from the past three seasons are taken into account and younger QBs will have their college evaluation taken into account. QBs with the plus sign (+) are players who are expected to improve this season. It is important to note that whatever impact a QB has on their team’s culture is not factored into their grade. It’s instead factored into the culture grade I give each team, although that information will not be public for TBD. Rookies are not included as it isn’t exactly fair to compare them to current NFL starters when none of them have NFL film to go off of. My QB rankings for the 2022 NFL draft can be found here. Please note there has been a slight adjustment to the grading method/ formula so all of the rookie QB’s overall grades have slightly decreased, though the order of the rankings remains the same. Enjoy, and please leave your feedback on Twitter @FootballIntell4.

QB Formula key

38. Sam Darnold

Ranking Sam Darnold dead last among all the notable QBs from 2021 comes from an unbiased former fan of him. It wasn’t until this last season that I sold all my stock on Darnold reaching his potential, though there’s a slight chance he turns into a decent player in the future. It very well may have been the complete chaos that took place in New York under former head coach Adam Gase that ruined his chance to develop. While Darnold’s play at the pro level has been very poor for the most part, I still believe had he gotten paired with a high-level play-caller, head coach, and a better team, he would’ve developed much better. There will be some flash plays from him as a starter but it is reasonable to expect Matt Corral to eventually take over as the starter in 2022.

37. Drew lock

While the NFL has seen a few QBs drafted over the past decade in the second round to go on and be decent, Drew Lock is an example of why drafting one there can be a high risk-low upside gamble to make. It was obvious when Lock was a prospect, that he needed to improve quite a bit in order to become a good starter and if anything Lock has probably gotten worse since he entered the league. Just two years back Denver’s front office made a clear effort to assemble as much supporting talent around him in order to get a firm answer whether or not he could be the franchise starter. Although Lock missed a majority of the season when the team was hoping to evaluate him, I’ve seen enough poor performances from him under multiple different circumstances to say his best chance in the NFL is at being a backup. Now that Seattle has him after trading Russell Wilson, he might get a fair shot to prove himself, though I’m expecting him to be replaced sooner than later.

36. Davis Mills

It initially seemed pointless when Houston drafted Davis Mills with their early third-round pick in 2021. However, he surprised and flew under the radar as a decent starter last season and earned himself at least one more year as the starter. Mills doesn’t have great physical traits, which explains why he wasn’t drafted earlier. Despite this, he did everything on the field as well as you could expect from a rookie QB. He had plenty of big-time throws that were accurate and on time in 2021, and still did so with only 10 picks. Ultimately he has good enough mobility and arm talent to have a chance at becoming a franchise QB in the NFL, which is great for the Texans.

35. Taylor Heineke

In the 2020-21 playoffs, Washington’s top two QBs went down with an injury and Taylor Heineke stepped in and exceeded his expectations. He showed flashes last season as the starter, where he created big plays on his own, out of structure. Despite not having a great arm, Heineke emulates the gunslinger mentality with his combination of play extension and aggressive decision-making. This style of play has led to some ugly performances as a starter, but he still ultimately had a solid season with little help around him. He generally senses pressure well which aids his weakness in processing defenses. With his competitive attitude, it is hard not to like this guy as he can be as entertaining as almost anyone at times.

34. Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota had great upside when he first entered the NFL, but for various reasons, never became a good starter. Mariota has elite straight-line speed, though he’s a bit less explosive than he was earlier in his career. For someone with great mobility, he does a poor job of extending plays and getting yards scrambling. This is due to a combination of poor pocket presence and overly conservative decision-making. He simply didn’t take enough risks while also not having good enough processing to consistently help his team win. Because of his arm talent and athleticism, he stuck as a starter for quite a while as he had occasional good performances. He has a good release and good short accuracy which will pair nicely with their weapons in this offense. After sitting behind Derek Carr for two seasons he’s getting an opportunity to start for Atlanta, but he’s likely to fail and eventually give up his job to Desmond Ridder.

33. Mitch Trubisky

Mitch Trubisky is the perfect example of a player with all the physical traits to be great but without the intangibles and consistency to be a winning QB. Trubisky has shown many moments playing at a high level, but only to do the complete opposite in the same game or the week later. He has the arm and ball placement to make most deep balls but fails to consistently make them week to week. His ability as a scrambler is underrated, which helps with this poor O-line in Pittsburgh. He hasn’t developed from the mental aspect since entering the league, but there’s also the chance he has as a backup over the past season. He and Kenny Pickett are battling it out, but it is looking like Trubisky will start week one. There are some great weapons to work with on offense so he’ll get a fair shot but it won’t be surprising at all to see Kenny Pickett take over at some point.

32. Gardner Minshew

While some people get annoyed by him, Gardner Minshew is easily one of my favorite QBs in the league. Although he doesn’t possess very good physical attributes, he possesses great intangible traits. The reason I like him so much isn’t just because of his personality but because he managed to really shock me as I saw him play. When I initially watched him, it seemed his first few performances were just pure flukes. While he still isn’t a very consistent player, despite his lack of arm strength, he is a player that’ll keep your team in the game no matter the opponent when he is hot. Since entering the league, he’s consistently had surprisingly good games. He throws deep and over the middle of the field fearlessly very akin to Ryan Fitzpatrick and he has excellent play extension skills given his athleticism. One big flaw in Minshew’s game that could improve in the future is his processing ability as he struggled against more confusing coverages and blitz packages, but he’s proved to be able to process simple coverage schemes at a decent level. His inconsistency and his mediocre arm are what will likely hold Minshew from getting a full-time starting job, but at the very least he will be a very good backup for a long-time.

31. Jordan Love

This is a very interesting, but difficult player to evaluate as a pro; what most intrigues me is his potential as well as the current situation Jordan Love is in with the Packers. So far in the NFL, he hasn’t shown much to love but considering he’s only played one and a half games, there is way too little evidence to make a firm opinion on him. It’s important to realize that the one full game Love played in the NFL, happened to be one of the most difficult games any QB has played in the 2021 season. This game was in week nine against Kansas City while Aaron Rodgers had covid-19. The team missed LT David Bakhtiari and OC Josh Myers to injury, which contributed to the O-line giving up immense pressure at a number of 28 times. The Kansas City defense played very well in general and continued to throw confusing coverage schemes and blitzes at Love all game – it is safe to say almost any non-elite QB would struggle in that game. Love is still a very young player and has excellent physical traits, and even though his talent hasn’t been displayed in the pros, there is no reason he couldn’t reach the level of a top ten QB someday.

30. Teddy Bridgewater

While it’s ironic, Teddy Bridgewater is the definition of a bridge Quarterback in the modern NFL, which is still a valuable player as many teams with a young developmental player, could really use one. The reason Bridgewater is not a good long-term solution is that he has a very weak arm compared to other starters in the NFL and doesn’t have great mobility either. He also doesn’t possess any elite intangible traits like processing and accuracy although, those traits are well above average in the case of Bridgewater. While he is great at passing in the short-intermediate area of the field he had one of the worst adjusted completion percentages throwing deep in 2021. Now that he’ll be turning 30 this upcoming season, the likelihood for him to improve small aspects of his game such as pocket presence and deep accuracy is very unlikely. He still has the type of character and leadership you’d want in a QB but ultimately, he likely will play the majority of his remaining career as a backup, due to his limitations.

29. Jalen Hurts

Like many others, when Jalen Hurts was in college, I was convinced he’d eventually become a WR or RB but he managed to stick it out at QB and has come a long way over the past few years. With that being said, it’s still looking like he could end up being a backup sooner or later unless he takes a step up this upcoming season. Hurts has a very intriguing skillset as he has the size and build of an HB or WR, has great quickness and speed, but has a pretty strong arm as well. He has improved his accuracy gradually over the past few seasons which is a good sign of good character and hard work ethic. Entering the league, he had a very limited processer and failed in subtle ways as a decision-maker, and it is crucial for him to improve this trait this season. Based on what Hurts has shown so far in the NFL, it isn’t obvious that Gardner Minshew is much worse of a QB, though this scheme ran by Nick Sirianni is clearly best suited for Hurts. This team made it to the playoffs last season relying on an all-around great run game, and it’s unlikely they can make it any further unless Hurts can take a massive step up. GM Howie Roseman significantly improved their roster this offseason which makes it easy to assess whether Hurts is the longterm starter or not.

28. Justin Fields

Justin Fields was a superstar for Ohio State and really shouldn’t have fallen out of the top ten with his type of potential. With an elite arm, Fields has excellent deep-ball accuracy for his age and also has some of the best natural play extension ability in the league. Not only is he fast, but he has great size and play strength as well which makes for a tough guy to tackle. In 2021, under coach Matt Nagy, he was forced to run a lot of quick short passes which limited his play extension and made his slower release more of a weakness. It is evident his throwing release has gotten quicker in training camps which should allow for his short accuracy to improve, and the new scheme will be a better fit. When Fields wasn’t under any pressure from the pass-rush, he looked great but that rarely occurred due to how bad their pass-pro is. Unfortunately, the offensive line in 2022 won’t be much better and their receivers are even worse after losing Allen Robinson. Fields has a very raw processor and still needs to improve in some other small areas. That isn’t abnormal at all but his surrounding situation is rather poor for multiple reasons, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him fail as a starter. I genuinely hope he goes on to be an elite player like he has the upside to be but, it is only fair to be realistic.

27. Tua Tagovailoa

As much as the Dolphins fan base loves him, as more time goes on, it only becomes more evident it was a mistake to draft him at pick five. I believe Tua Tagovailoa still likely goes on to be a solid starting QB for a long time, but considering Miami passed on other great talents to take him, makes it a mistake of a pick. It isn’t the end of the world to not nail an early first-rounder but the fact his ceiling can only be so high could easily lead to a state of purgatory in Miami. Tua is undoubtedly a solid all-around QB, but in order for him to be capable of competing with the best QBs in the league, he will have to develop both an elite processor and elite accuracy, which is very difficult to do. While he already has excellent accuracy, he still has a long way to go with his processor and decision-making. One particular area he’s struggled in is pocket sense and consistently extending plays when he needs to. Although, this is something that could very well change over time and especially with a better O-line. Miami did a great job of assembling a legit surround core around him as they now have a much better offensive play-caller, a top-five Offensive-Tackle, and the second-best receiver in the league. This will take an immense amount of pressure off Tua and this upcoming season will be very revealing regarding his true upside. If this Dolphins team is healthy, there’s no reason they won’t be a playoff team, but whether or not Tua can win a super bowl with this team is a big question.

26. Trey Lance

Trey Lance is the ultimate high-upside project at QB, and fortunately for him, he is in one of the best possible situations he could’ve asked for. It’s safe to say any of the top-tier QBs from the 2021 draft class would’ve likely gone on to succeed in this offense, but the upside Lance holds is beyond what is typically available in an average draft. Lance dominated for North Dakota State and put up great statistics, alongside having incredible physical traits. His arm strength is among the best in the NFL, while he also has great speed and power as a runner. His ability to extend plays and throw on the move greatly benefits the play-action passing concepts that Kyle Shanahan loves to run. Unlike any other offensive scheme, this offense will minimize Lance’s raw processing ability with clever passing concepts and run options. One desirable trait that Shanahan probably loves is his natural decision-making when improvisation and risk-taking are necessary. He certainly needs to improve in some areas and become more consistent, but it is hard not to be impressed with this trait for being such a young player. His throwing release and short accuracy will take some time to be on a high-end level, but he still has plenty of strengths to rely on. As long as nothing out of the ordinary somehow hinders him, it is only a matter of time until Lance plays at top ten-five QB level.

Part Two (25-13)