Ranking The 38 Best Quarterbacks Heading Into 2022 – Part Three (1-12)

This is part three of three parts, and suggest reading Part Two if you haven’t already. Quarterback rankings are very popular among the NFL community and for good reason. QBs are always the biggest cornerstone piece of a consistent, winning franchise, and there tends to be a significant polarization among fans who compare them to each other. There are dozens of useful stats that give fans great insight into certain aspects of the game. This leads to many different people having different perspectives on QBs in general based on what info they have. The fact that many fans are so passionate about one team leads to a lot of biased takes from fans over social media. My rankings will be drastically different from the consensus opinion on this specific topic. That is because I have a unique perspective on how I view them and take into account multiple nuanced factors for their evaluation and most casual fans are not aware of these factors. This list is intended to relay the most accurate and realistic rankings of the overall talent and value that each relevant QB possesses heading into the 2022 season. It may be confusing looking at the variable scheme grades – This is because every individual NFL playbook has differences from each other, and it is only feasible to include three schemes that each have different variations of it. A player like Kirk Cousins is fair to account a combination of his ‘PA’ grade and his ‘PRO’ grade when seeing what his true grade would be. These scheme grades aren’t here to necessarily say which exact scheme fits him best, but rather to say what kind of general skillset they have. The order was assembled taking into account the QB’s on-field performance (from ‘all-22-film’) in relation to their surrounding circumstances while reconciling their film with multiple forms of advanced analytics. Performances and stats from the past three seasons are taken into account and younger QBs will have their college evaluation taken into account. QBs with the plus sign (+) are players who are expected to improve this season. It is important to note that whatever impact a QB has on their team’s culture is not factored into their grade. Rookies are not included as it isn’t exactly fair to compare them to current NFL starters when none of them have NFL film to go off of. My QB rankings for the 2022 NFL draft can be found here. Please note there has been a slight adjustment to the grading method/ formula so all of the rookie QB’s overall grades have slightly decreased, though the order of the rankings remains the same. If it seems like I’m hating on any player, I don’t say it for any particular player, but I hold an immense amount of respect for football players in general. Enjoy, and please leave your feedback on Twitter @FootballIntell4.

QB Formula key

Grading scale: 1-7

12. Dak Prescott

Even though Dak Prescott isn’t ranked in the top ten, he’s certainly in that category production-wise. It is apparent Prescott is very highly viewed by fans, and some argue he is even a top-five starter. It’s only reasonable to view him around that area if you don’t watch game-film on any other QBs and don’t add context to stats you see. The biggest reason why Dak isn’t on an elite level is his arm strength. There is more to it than that but while he has a league-average arm, most QBs that rank ahead of him have truly special arms. The ball will always come out quick and clean, but when throwing outside the numbers, his velocity isn’t too impressive and recently he’s only been able to throw about 55 yards with his best past. He has good mobility and play strength but still has not consistently used that to make plays on his own. In addition, it took him years to develop a better pocket presence and it still isn’t at an elite level like with Tom Brady. His accuracy on the other hand is elite in some areas and is a big reason he gets so much credit. His processor is also a major reason for his success, although is something less widely discussed about Dak. He particularly excels in pre-snap IQ and is one of the best at recognizing blitzes and coverages. In 2021 Prescott benefitted greatly from elite pass-protection and a fantastic receiver duo. His defense was also statistically ranked seventh last season which made his job even easier. When everything around him is perfect, he can execute as well as anybody, but he ultimately doesn’t do anything extra as a QB that would allow him to consistently win without help. After losing two great starters on offense, it isn’t obvious Dak is going to repeat his great statistical season but he still has a very competent floor to rely on.

11. Matthew Stafford

It was very hard to not rank Matthew Stafford in the top ten as in almost any other period of time in football history, he would be. After the Lions wasted the majority of his career, fortunately, he landed in a steller situation, and he ultimately lived up to the highest expectation possible of winning a Super Bowl. The only thing that held Stafford back from being an MVP-type player was his inconsistent stretches of football. More specifically he had a stretch where he was consistently having multiple turnover-worthy plays a game. While Stafford had a significant amount of help, he still played his best when it mattered most and made the absolute best out of his situation. At 34, his arm strength is still beyond an elite level and he is easily one of the best deep ball passers around. In general, he is a very all-around skilled passer. Stafford has never had an amazing processor but in the later half of his career, he developed great confidence and consistency in his decision-making. last regular season, Stafford only had a roughly 11% deep attempt percentage while having 35 completed deep passes. His skill set is perfect for this offense run by Sean McVay, as he isn’t required to be a rushing threat and is elite throwing in the intermediate-deep area. His ability to sense pressure has greatly helped him in play extension and he pairs this with elite throw-while-moving ability. One of the most impressive qualities of Stafford is his toughness and his clutchness as demonstrated in the last Super Bowl. This Rams roster isn’t quite as talented as last year, but it’s still good enough to give Stafford a legitimate chance at winning another ring.

10. Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson is the most unique QB out of anybody on this entire list and is also one of the most entertaining. While his athletic skill set is simply unheard of, Jackson as a pure passer is close to the level of an average starter. Playing in the Ravens’ offense which is tailored fit to his skill set, Jackson is a slightly better player than Murray and Herbert. In his rookie year, he was abysmal as an overall passer but has developed immensely in pretty much every regard since then. The offense is built through a great run game and it involves a heavy workload from Jackson as a runner. When this run game is executed well, defenses are forced to overcommit to the run game leaving easy pass opportunities in play-action. When he is faced with traditional passing downs on third and long or when playing from behind, Jackson tends to struggle more. This is because he doesn’t have the most refined accuracy and still isn’t great at reading defenses. A small detail that greatly benefits Jackson is his play-action ability and this is both evident through his game film and his statistics. An aspect to his game that’s impressed recently is his decision-making and deep accuracy. Last season, he ranked in the top five for deep pass attempts and was on target for roughly 45% of them. Over his time in the NFL, he’s drastically improved his confidence in making big-time throws while also gradually reducing the bad ones. His pocket presence and ability to recognize pressure was a concern early on, but this trait is now ideal for NFL standards. Jackson’s insane mobility gives him a significant degree of compensation for the traits he doesn’t excel in. Because he also has a very strong arm, he is one of the best playmakers of this generation, and who’s to say how elite he could be with even more experience and development. Even though there are many other QBs with equal or better passing traits, his ability to elude sacks, make impressive throws, and make splash plays with his legs gives him an unparalleled advantage. The level of development that Jackson has shown since entering the NFL is simply unprecedented, and who he is as a human as well as the Baltimore organization deserves a lot of credit as his success has been special.

9. Kyler Murray

After receiving the second highest-paid contract in Football, Kyler Murray must eventually take a step up in order to still seriously compete. This is because his roster will get significantly cheaper as soon as his rookie contract ends, and he still hasn’t proved to win consistently without help. A more accurate ranking of his value when accounting for his character is about 12th or 13th. His play on the field doesn’t need to improve very much but he specifically needs to mature and take more accountability. No matter how talented he is, his character concerns will continue to hinder his success. However, what Kyler brings to the table on offense is special as he has incredible quickness and an elite arm. He entered the league with good accuracy and a good processor considering his experience and he has gradually improved over the past three seasons. He’s had multiple moments of playing elite so far but the biggest concern is when he’s faced with adversity. This has shown in big moments such as the Wildcard game in 2021 against LA and also showed in games without his star receiver. When he is playing well though, he is an elite playmaker and doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. Obviously, Murray has an elite-designed scrambling ability, but what isn’t talked about enough is that his acceleration is on the same level as Jackson. His ability to sense pressure wasn’t great early on but he’s gradually improved while he’s also always been willing to extend plays with his legs. Murray has consistently shown great short and deep accuracy but hasn’t done the same in the intermediate area. While this was improved upon last season, it still hasn’t been consistently shown. This is mainly due to his short height as it is much more difficult for him to see that part of the field. Murray still has two more seasons on a cheaper cap hit so he still could possibly grow as a human leading to a better and more consistent version of him, but that is a big if.

8. Justin Herbert

As someone who thought he’d likely be a bust, I can now confidently say Justin Herbert has drastically exceeded my expectations and then some. Not to make excuses for missing on him, but looking back Oregon clearly held him back and limited his big play ability. His processor has already come a long way and he’s also one of the best decision-makers in football right now. What gives him true elite upside is his insanely powerful arm which is easily top three in the league currently. His mobility is surprisingly a big factor in his game, and he has room to grow his ability to throw while moving, though he’s already great at that. While he won’t ever be an elite rushing threat, he’s mobile enough to excel in play extension and adds extra value as a scrambler. In the 2021 regular season, he finished seventh in the league for undesigned scrambles. Last season Herbert was the most accurate deep ball thrower not including Russell Wilson. He not only had elite precision and could make any realistic throw possible, but also consistently took shots and didn’t miss often. He could very well be one of the best deep passers in the modern era. There’s no doubt their pass-pro has helped but Herbert has shown to be very good at maneuvering the pocket and knowing when the blitz is coming. His ball security has also been elite since entering the league. One thing that isn’t often discussed about Herbert is his turnover-worthy throws rank as one of the best. The only reason he isn’t ranked top-five is he’s only played for two seasons and needs at least one more season to prove that he can sustain elite play. From this point forward, he just needs to continue on what he’s done so far, and improve in small areas. The team around him has some fantastic additions, it’s Brandon Staley’s second year and there are huge expectations heading into this season for LA.

7. Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is currently a rather difficult player to accurately asses as we’re only one season removed from seeing a truly elite version of him, but also just had a poor season in the most recent one. What makes it complicated is that he was injured and missed four games while it seemed he had come back without watching any film. It’s not as simple as he just got injured and suffered on the field due to of it, but he also looked slower and less explosive throughout the season, and it was a finger injury. He still will have enough athletism to sustain elite play, but whether that occurs again is a huge question. Wilson will still likely have the best deep accuracy this season and his arm is still beyond good enough. While it may not be quite the same, his deep accuracy two years ago was on a different level than anyone else. His short-intermediate accuracy, however, isn’t a liability but is something that could be improved upon. Now with a new team and Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett, he gets a legitimate surrounding core and will get to play in his ideal scheme. His ability to extend plays and accuracy downfield is perfect for this offense. Hackett should do a great job of designing easy reads while being able to establish a good run game in this offense. I expect him and Courtland Sutton to have a great connection and work well with each other. The offensive line will aid Wilson much better as he’ll get to be more of himself and hold on to the ball longer. This, alongside the scheme, should allow him to make fewer mistakes while capitalizing on his strengths even more. Even if he’s a bit slower, there is serious potential here for Wilson to make something special happen. It isn’t often we see a superstar QB like him get traded, so it will be very interesting to see how he fairs this season.

6. Tom Brady

Most fans and people involved in the league believe Tom Brady is a top-three QB, and that is still true in a sense despite him ranking sixth. Brady ranks third using my scale when accounting for the best scheme grade he aligns in, and he is also surrounded by elite talent on both sides of the ball. There’s undoubtedly truth to the sentiment that Brady has an unparalleled x-factor that makes the team around him better, but he still was ultimately fortunate to land in Tampa Bay. The combination of his play, impact on the culture and good luck led to his Super Bowl win with the Buccaneers. After playing two years for the Bucs, Brady has developed possibly the most excellent processor of all time, or at least the best I’ve ever seen. While his accuracy seemed to have regressed by 2019, for the past two years he’s been incredible in the short-intermediate area. His arm talent, while not quite the same is still more than sufficient for this offense. His arm talent can vary a bit throughout the season as for every old QB. Some of his deep passes will require every bit of strength and windup he has in him, meaning he can’t make the great back-foot type of throws. On most passes, Brady has one of the greatest releases of all time, but this offense requires a lot of deep throws. On the other hand, his ability to sense pressure makes a significant difference in this offense as it’s simply been world-class for years. That has been a big reason he’s been able to make up for his lack of athletism throughout his career. As he lacks great physical traits, the other QBs ranked above him have a major advantage in their game, but Brady is still the most impressive human on this list. There is an in-depth article about a case for why Tom Brady isn’t the greatest QB of all time (to be released TBD) and while it sounds outlandish, there are legitimate arguments to be made against it. As of this point in time, when accounting for his entire skillset on the field, Brady isn’t quite as talented as some of the other top-tier QBs.

5. Joe Burrow

Drafting Joe Burrow was a miracle to the Cinncinatti organization as he is one of the few future faces of the NFL. There is a reason the Bengals went from a joke franchise picking first overall to playing in a Super Bowl two years later – it’s because of Burrow. He doesn’t have the greatest arm but he has multiple other elite traits that elevate the team around him. Similar to Brady, Burrow has this weird thing about him where everything just seems to fall together when he’s playing. He and Ja’Marr Chase could very well be an all-time great duo as they both have played at an elite level very early on. Burrow had to overcome a very poor offensive line for the beginning part of his career, and he’s gradually improved his ability to maneuver pressure. While he takes a lot of sacks, a lot of them aren’t his fault, and some will happen in convenient situations. The offensive line at this point is also much better than in past years. The scheme Zach Taylor runs pairs excellently with his elite intermediate accuracy and ability to throw while moving. Despite the lack of arm strength, Burrow still has rare accuracy throwing deep, with both great ball placement and consistency. When accounting for drops and throw-aways, he nearly had an 80% completion percentage in 2021 which is amazing. Furthermore, both his processor and decision making is incredibly impressive for his experience. He can accelerate and escape the pocket surprisingly quickly and this makes him a very versatile passer, alongside being a scrambling threat. It may seem unfair to grade Burrows ‘sense pressure’ slightly above Herbert, but this is because of the difference in their team’s pass-pro units. When Burrow lost to Herbert in 2021, it was evidently clear that Herbert had more help and good luck in that one game. The biggest difference between the two is Burrow does more to elevate the players around him. He’s had a few rather poor performances since entering the league, but that’s totally expected considering how bad the team was when he arrived. As time goes on Burrow will very likely be regarded as a consensus elite QB.

4. Deshaun Watson

After missing out on football for a whole season, Deshaun Watson is set to miss six games this upcoming season. Because of this, it’s difficult to predict how good he’ll look right when he comes back, but this grade is an accurate reflection of what he’ll eventually look like after playing again. Watson was very highly viewed across the NFL before his entire massage scandal became known. His talent is beyond what you could expect out of a typical franchise QB. He has this enate quality where he can just make plays out of nothing and is one of the most entertaining QBs in recent history. Watson has some of the best play-extension in football history while also having elite impact accuracy. This makes for a tough QB to gameplan for and he still hasn’t had the chance to play in a legit surrounding offense until now. He has a combination of elite pocket presence and elite mobility, which is very rare as Russell Wilson is the only other that’s been better in this area. In 2020 Watson graded out as one of the best QBs according to PFF with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Not only was Watson very productive despite poor circumstances, but he simply makes some of the most spectacular plays you’ll ever see from a QB. Even though he doesn’t necessarily need a great processor, he still is generally very good in this regard. He has a stellar 9.5 ADOT over his four-year career, and he’s done this without a lot of turnover-worthy plays. It is a shame that he’s turned out to be such a dishonorable and immoral human as his football talent is undeniably great. On the positive side, when he returns to football, this Brown’s team will be more entertaining than it’s ever been in decades.

3. Josh Allen

Josh Allen is a major reason why the perspective on QBs in the draft has changed as he’s done nothing but improve at a rapid rate since entering the league. Ever since he and Lamar Jackson have broken out, teams now value physical traits much more than before. His arm strength very well may be the greatest in NFL history and he’s also currently one of the best scrambling QBs in the league. His insane physical talent gave him immense upside as a prospect and many analysts and teams didn’t think he was worth betting on. While Josh Allen clearly has a great character and hard work ethic, the Bills organization has to receive a good amount of credit for making a conducive environment for him to succeed. After having serious accuracy concerns in college, he is now one of the most accurate passers at all levels of the field. In Allen’s rookie year, his adjusted completion percentage was roughly 65% while over the past two seasons it’s been an average of about 76%. Earlier in his career, he consistently had back-breaking turnovers, but he managed to gradually reduce these over time. Although his processor and decision-making aren’t anything special, his former OC Brian Daboll did an excellent job at scheming up easy reads. Daboll specifically was elite at knowing exactly when to call the right plays. It may slow him down this season without having Daboll but it’s reasonable to expect him to still improve in the mental area. Furthermore, he is elite in play extension as he not only has incredible size and acceleration but also great pocket sense. Among just a few other players in the NFL, Allen’s ability to make difficult throws out of structure is outstanding. Because he has such great raw throwing power, it allows him to make deep throws under difficult conditions like while being taken to the ground as he’s throwing. He also is the second-best QB throwing in poor weather conditions right behind Mahomes, and it’s because of his arm. Allen is a truly incredible talent and when compared to other great QBs, he is basically a juiced-up version of Big Ben. With more consistency, there isn’t anything Mahomes can do that he can’t do either which is very exciting for the league.

2. Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is simply a special player who very well may be the ‘GOAT’ someday. It may seem crazy at the moment, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have a Michael Jordan-esk legacy by the time he leaves the NFL. Mahomes has already had the greatest start to a career in NFL history and both his film and analytics back it up. Every season he’s started in since entering the league has been elite. He’s had his bad performances for sure but even in his worst games, he’ll still manage to have jaw-dropping throws. His arm talent is easily among the best of all time as he doesn’t just have incredible velocity in his throws, but also has an insane ability to throw while moving. When Mahomes is playing hot, he has borderline perfect decision making, and he’s developed his processor at a rapid rate. He specifically has a rare vision of the entire field which allows him to navigate the pocket while maintaining awareness of all his receivers. Throwing deep, Mahomes can make any throw asked of him and has close to the best accuracy in the league. He’s shown elite accuracy throwing short-intermediate for most of his career, even though a lot of his technical short passes are actually intermediate passes due to his depth in the pocket. Because Mahomes gets so much depth behind the ‘LOS’ on shotgun passes, it ruins the leverage his tackles would normally get which makes the Edge rusher’s job easier. He can get away with doing this because of his absurd arm talent and the fact he can escape pressure so well. Youtuber Brett Kollmann has a much more detailed take on this particular issue and it can be found here. Mahomes has also had stretches where his decision-making is overly aggressive while he’s not taking the time to fully go through his reads, and his accuracy will be off. At this point in time though, he has proven to bounce back as good as anyone, and he automatically puts his team in competition for a Super Bowl as long as he’s healthy.

1. Aaron Rodgers

It was just three years ago, most fans and media analysts didn’t view Aaron Rodgers as a top-tier QB, but now ranking him number one isn’t a controversial take in any way. He’s not only the reigning back-to-back MVP but he’s also been ranked number one back-to-back years by Mike Sando in ‘The NFL Quarterback Tiers 2022‘, which is based on NFL executive’s opinions. It was made pretty evident his former head coach Mike McCarthy was a bum for NFL standards during his time with the packers. People tend to use the fact that Rodgers only has one ring to support the claim he’s overrated. It is unfair to discredit his greatness as the difference between Matt Lefleur and McCarthy has proved to be significant. The fact Rodgers kept that team in serious competition year in, year out despite the poor offensive playcalling and lack of general help shows how incredible he really is. In addition, he’s only had one top-ten defense since becoming a starter, compared to Tom Brady having ten out of the past 11 seasons. Rodgers also has an insane career TD/ INT ratio of 4.83, which means he throws almost five TDs for every one interception. Alongside having remarkable advanced statistics, no one besides Mahomes passes the eye test better than Rodgers does. While his arm isn’t quite what it used to be, he still has one of the most talented arms around. The major reason for his record-high TD/ INT ratio is his brilliant ability to consistently make calculated risks. As most know, Rodgers is the best at taking advantage of offsides penalties, but beyond this, his most aggressive throws 90% of the time have good reason and logic behind them. For example, Rodgers, at mid-field before halftime will take a deep shot in double coverage on a third and long. He’d know that the pass very well could be picked, but if it is, the other team still has no time to drive downfield and score. He’s simply risking very little while giving himself a chance for big-time play. This same type of decision-making also shows in his ability to change plays without the coach’s permission. If Rodgers didn’t make the better decision, coach Laflear would resent him but he doesn’t and that’s because it ultimately makes Leflear look better. While Rodgers clearly suffered a rough stretch of time with his general accuracy a few years ago, this has only been another big strength of his recently. Rodgers is also one of the best at maneuvering the pocket and is excellent at recognizing blitzes. Overall, there are currently no true weaknesses in his game, and until he shows regression, he will remain at the top.

Part Two (25-13)