Ranking The 38 Best Quarterbacks Heading Into 2022 – Part Two (13-25)

This is part two of three parts, and suggest reading part one if you haven’t already. Quarterback rankings are very popular among the NFL community and for good reason. QBs are always the biggest cornerstone piece of a consistent, winning franchise, and there tends to be a significant polarization among fans who compare them to each other. There are dozens of useful stats that give fans great insight into certain aspects of the game. This leads to many different people having different perspectives on QBs in general based on what info they have. The fact that many fans are so passionate about one team leads to a lot of biased takes from fans over social media. My rankings will be drastically different from the consensus opinion on this specific topic. That is because I have a unique perspective on how I view them and take into account multiple nuanced factors for their evaluation and most casual fans are not aware of these factors. This list is intended to relay the most accurate and realistic rankings of the overall talent and value that each relevant QB possesses heading into the 2022 season. It may be confusing looking at the variable scheme grades – This is because every individual NFL playbook has differences from each other, and it is only feasible to include three schemes that each have different variations of it. A player like Kirk Cousins is fair to account a combination of his ‘PA’ grade and his ‘PRO’ grade when seeing what his true grade would be. These scheme grades aren’t here to necessarily say which exact scheme fits him best, but rather to say what kind of general skillset they have. The order was assembled taking into account the QB’s on-field performance (from ‘all-22-film’) in relation to their surrounding circumstances while reconciling their film with multiple forms of advanced analytics. Performances and stats from the past three seasons are taken into account and younger QBs will have their college evaluation taken into account. QBs with the plus sign (+) are players who are expected to improve this season. It is important to note that whatever impact a QB has on their team’s culture is not factored into their grade. Rookies are not included as it isn’t exactly fair to compare them to current NFL starters when none of them have NFL film to go off of. My QB rankings for the 2022 NFL draft can be found here. Please note there has been a slight adjustment to the grading method/ formula so all of the rookie QB’s overall grades have slightly decreased, though the order of the rankings remains the same. If it seems like I’m hating on any player, I don’t say it for any particular player, but I hold an immense amount of respect for football players in general. Enjoy, and please leave your feedback on Twitter @FootballIntell4.

QB Formula key

Grading scale: 1-7

25. Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson is an exciting young talent at the QB position and was the type of prospect to go number one in most drafts. Despite having some ugly performances his rookie year, he could still very well develop into a superstar. The OC Mike Lefleur runs the perfect offense for Wilson in New York, and if pieces fall together on this offense, he can be a Russell Wilson-type player. There is also the chance none of the young players step up and injuries derail the team, which could result in Wilson busting. As previously mentioned, the Shanahan-style offense does a great job of minimizing processing for the QB, as it basically allows for more open targets on their first read. Alongside having a phenomenal play-action ability for his age, Wilson has an elite ability to throw off-platform and crossbody. The biggest aspect Wilson needs to improve is his decision-making as he had more turnover-worthy plays than true impactful throws. After a year of NFL experience and an improved run game, Wilson should have an easier time making good decisions this season. He also will need to improve his short accuracy and his consistency in general in order to ascend. With the addition of three impact players on offense and another year of development, there are big expectations for Zach Wilson heading into this season.

24. Jameis Winston

Ranking Jameis Winston this high is a bit of a controversial take, but after watching dozens of his games over the past few seasons, he has some redeeming qualities. He is most well known for his 30/30 season where he threw for 33 TDs and 30 INTs, while also having 5000 passing yards. After sitting for a year behind Drew Brees, he threw 14 TDs with only three picks in his seven starts last season. As the Saints didn’t take a QB in this past draft, Winston will be the full-time starter in 2022 and he has a good chance to play well. Winston has both arm talent and good accuracy on all levels of the field and does multiple other things well too. The reason he gets a bad rep is that up until last season did not have any care whatsoever for turning the ball over. He would take a lot of unnecessary risks and would rarely take the time to go through his reads, which led to his insane turnover rate. Before getting injured last season, he showed great improvement at taking the time to process the defense. Not only did he limit his backbreaking turnover players but he still managed to have occasional big-time throws. If Winston comes back healthy and picks up where he left off, there’s no reason he won’t be a solid starter and have good production.

23. Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones has had an interesting career so far, and currently, finds himself in a unique but promising situation. It didn’t seem obvious New York would stick by him as the full-time starter when Brian Daboll was hired, but luckily for him, he only got an improved roster for next season. It was a bit disappointing to see them not invest in one of the QBs from this past draft, but ultimately, it could result in Jones developing into a high-end starter. Coming out of college, he had good physical traits but wasn’t good enough to be worth betting an early first on, yet the Giants still did. It initially appeared to be a mistake to draft him as he still was rather raw and inconsistent, but he went on to develop better processing and accuracy. At this point, he is a QB capable of winning under the right circumstances, but his chances of ever being a top ten QB are very slim. When this team’s pass-pro struggled which was more often than not, Jones would constantly take unnecessary sacks and fumbles. This was due to his very poor ability to sense pressure and quickly make reads, but this was also an area of improvement in 2021. Now with a better O-line and a significantly better play-caller, Jones will have a good opportunity to prove himself. This season for Jones will be what ultimately determines if he stays the long-term answer at QB.

22. Jared Goff

After the LA Rams traded Jared Goff and multiple picks to get Matt Stafford, he lost a lot of benefit of the doubt across the league. That’s because we all saw him play when everything around him was set up for him to succeed, and he ultimately didn’t. While the league doesn’t view too highly of him, there are some nice traits to like about Goff. His arm talent is a tad underrated as it hasn’t been on full display recently, but he’s still made plenty of impressive throws earlier in his career. While his arm strength isn’t elite quite elite, he particularly has an excellent throwing release, which makes him fit well in most modern offenses. He also has a good processor alongside very good short-intermediate accuracy. What makes Stafford a clear upgrade, is that not only are his physical traits better, but Goff simply doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket and his decision-making limits his team’s upside. Goff still showed enough in the 2021 season with Detroit to stay as the starter for at least one more season, and it isn’t unlikely he has a solid season. He was very limited with his weapons last season but 2022 should be a much better all-around situation. Even though Detroit just picked second overall, this team has a very optimistic future and is a very intriguing team to analyze.

21. Trevor Lawrence

The 2021 season for the rookie Trevor Lawrence was disappointing, to say the least, however, given the circumstances of the single-year sample size of his NFL career, it’d be foolish to write him off this soon. Pretty much any stat you look at would indicate that Lawrence didn’t play well for the Jags in 2021, but that isn’t to say he won’t be much better in the future. Given his resume from college, the rare natural talent he has, and the fact his coach turned out to be one of the most embarrassing hires the league has seen, it’s safe to say that his poor season was more of a result of what was around him rather than what Lawarence did himself. In all of the games I’ve watched Lawrence play for Jacksonville, you can at least make out that he still possesses insane upside, but still has a long way to go in order to achieve that upside. There were many situations in Jags games where a passing play would fail as a result of either a blatant coaching error or a mistake from Lawrence which could’ve been easily corrected by the coach. In addition, the playcalling he had to work with could be significantly more creative and intuitive than what we saw in 2021. Obviously what will alarm people when looking at his rookie season, is his number of interceptions, which was tied for worst in the league at 17. He also did that with only 12 touchdown passes, which will give the impression to some casual fans that he’s simply a lousy QB because of such bad stats, but more advanced stats would prove that to be wrong for the most part. Lawrence season is a great example of why it’s so important to watch entire games; if you haven’t already read “The Proper Way to Analytically view Football”, this article explains that in much further detail. It is certainly possible the Jags inevitably ruin Lawrence’s career, and rather than being an elite game-changing player, he is just an average starter. With an improved offense and Doug Pederson as the new head coach, it will be better than last year, but still far from ideal for such a young QB. It’s possible this team makes bigger moves next offseason, but in 2022, Lawrence will have a multitude of obstacles to overcome.

20. Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo at one point in time looked like an ascending franchise QB, but injuries sadly derailed his career for the most part and he’s now closer to a backup than he is a franchise player. When he is fully healthy, Garoppolo is a solid NFL QB, especially with the talent he has had around him. Some of his strengths work very well in the play-action offense, as he has very good decision-making for the most part and excels throwing over the middle of the field. He also has one of the best improvement rates between non-play-action to play-action passing plays. When he was in New England, he clearly learned a thing or two from Brady as Garoppolo’s throwing release couldn’t be more spectacular. Throughout his career, Jimmy demonstrated very good play extension ability, despite his lack of speed. Some may notice he can accelerate faster than you’d expect, and he also has damn near elite pocket presence. While his lack of a good processor hasn’t been a huge issue for the 49ers, it has sometimes led to some ugly interceptions. The reason his deep accuracy is below league-average is that he didn’t take enough chances deep nor has had the consistency of throwing accurate deep passes recently. The lack of deep balls was more so due to the play-calling being rather conservative at times than it was his decision-making. It is still unsure what the future clearly looks like for Garoppolo, though it’s looking like he’ll probably get cut to clear cap space. He will certainly get picked up if he’s cut, and it likely won’t be a starter job he gets, but there is still time for him to possibly prove his worth again at some point.

19. Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield has had a very up and down career since entering the league and it’s rather difficult to evaluate him at this point in time. Before the 2021 season, it seemed Baker was a talented young QB on an upwards trajectory, but he ended up getting hurt and decided to still play while the team was also missing key players due to injury. His level of play dropped off significantly following his injury and he simply didn’t have the ability to win without a lot of help. Ever since entering the league, he has consistently had stretches of great play while also consistently having bad stretches of play – his football consistency is similar to the mood of someone with Bipolar Disorder. This is mainly due to his aggressive decision-making and lack of a good processor. In some games the run game is excellent and receivers are getting open quickly, which allows Baker to thrive, but when he is faced with traditional passing downs against good defenses, he crumbles more often than not. As an NFL player, he has shown to have an elite arm when throwing from a clean pocket, and this is obvious when watching him throw over the middle of the field. He also excels in accuracy at all levels of the field, which allows for him to make impressive throws when he’s playing hot. There is still time for Baker to improve his processing and just become an all-around more consistent player, but that is looking less likely at this moment. He was just recently traded to Carolina for a 2024 late conditional pick, which very well could be a steal for the Panthers. The reason his trade value was dim inished very well could’ve been due to his character concerns, but regardless, he’s a talented QB who’s competitive. Assuming he starts in 2022, he will need to improve his pocket presence more than anything else as this pass-pro isn’t what it was in Cleveland. Hopefully, Baker Mayfield is fully healthy so he can get a fair opportunity to prove his worth as his contract expires after this season.

18. Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz at one point in time was an MVP-caliber player and easily would’ve won the award in 2017 if it weren’t for his season-ending injury. Wentz didn’t just have great statistics in 2017 but displayed multiple elite traits throughout the season. Ever since then, he’s been a completely different player for the most part, although he did have some good moments last season. It appeared Wentz’s failures as an Eagle were due to the poor coaching situation, combined with the fact that most of their key starters were constantly injured. However, now after a year of him playing in a better situation, it is obvious he has regressed a rather substantial margin, but there is still a chance for him to turn it around. The scheme in Indianapolis wasn’t very conducive to his skill set, and it is possible to see him play better in Washinton because of the better scheme fit. Washington runs a pro offense, but ultimately he’ll get a lot more deep attempts and he has Terry McClaurin there who’ll make a big difference. It still could not work because he’ll have to be more consistent in making the right reads and decisions in this offense but it is hard to tell at this point. It’d be reasonable to have him lower on this list but when considering what he’s shown flashes of, it’s hard for him not to grade out well with this formula. There have been reports about his character and leadership qualities being poor, and him not listening to coaches which would partially explain why he’s been traded twice now after receiving a massive deal years ago. Based on his character flaws and his injury rate, I realistically view him as the 21st-22nd most valuable QB, but this grade accurately depicts what you can expect from his performance on the field throughout the whole season. Nonetheless, he is a very entertaining player to watch despite his flaws.

17. Mac Jones

Heading into the 2022 season, of all the QBs from the 2021 class, Mac Jones is the one I’d feel most comfortable with for this one season. There is still no reason to rather want him over any of the top three guys, but just because of his mediocre physical traits, doesn’t mean he should be discredited for the season he had. What impressed me more than anything else from his rookie season was his number of accurate impactful throws. He also had one of the most impressive processors you’ll ever see for a rookie which is a sign he’ll have a good long career. Both his arm and mobility are very solid, and while it does limit him from ever realistically becoming an elite player, there isn’t any reason he can’t become a top 12 or so QB eventually. Another treat Jones excells in is sensing pressure and being able to make good throws when he’s blitzed. On the negative side, he lost his offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels which clearly helped with his success last season, and the new OC is a question mark at this point. The reason New England felt good taking him 15th overall, was because he had all of the intangible traits that you’d want in a franchise QB. There isn’t much improvement to expect heading into this season as this team has only gotten slightly worse. Jones still has plenty of time to have success, and it’s possible this team gets back to playing competitively in a year or two, as they have the ideal QB.

16. Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan was essentially a lame duck Quarterback heading into last season, but luckily for him, he landed in a very good situation. The playbook run by Frank Reich will fit the strengths of Ryan’s game very well and won’t require him to make plays with his legs. The Matt Ryan acquisition was much more akin to the Philp Rivers acquisition than it was the Carson Wentz one. Ryan is a much better leader and has an elite processor which will make a dramatic difference for this particular team. At this point in time, Ryan’s arm isn’t what it used to be but is still good enough to suffice, and he has one of the best releases in football. He can accurately throw at all levels of the field, but he specifically thrives throwing in the short-intermediate part of the field. While he can get off good throws when under pressure, his lack of mobility limits his ability to extend plays severely. Fortunately, this offensive line is stellar and there’s an elite run game to help support him. One weakness that will hold him back is his red-zone passing as he doesn’t have the arm or confidence to make risky attempts in good coverage. However, the defense for Indianapolis will make Ryan’s job a lot easier as he won’t regularly be required to put up a high number of points. At the end of the day, Ryan is only really expected to start for a season or two, as they hopefully find a long-term answer soon, but he allows this team to be a legit playoff contender this season.

15. Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins is essentially the definition of an average starting QB in the NFL, but he is still able to make the most out of having great weapons around him. Cousins doesn’t have bad physical traits by any stretch of the imagination, but there’s a point where you don’t excel enough from an intangible perspective to be considered a great QB. Earlier on in his career, he continuously struggled to play well in big-time games, but recently he’s proved he’s capable of playing well for the most part in these big games. He mostly struggled to deal with good pass-rushes and being able to put up high-point games. While this has recently improved, it is still a notable issue of his. Cousins is generally very accurate, although has never reached an elite level of accuracy. His Processing and decision-making can be elite at times, but he just hasn’t consistently shown it. He has just enough athleticism and play-extension to work in this play-action-based scheme, which is convenient for the new head coach Kevin O’Connell. It should be noted, that Cousins has one of the better characters and leadership qualities at QB in the league. As the Vikings are clearly trying to compete this year, Cousins is more than likely going to produce like a top-ten QB. This is because this entire team is talented and the opportunity Cousins has to succeed happens to be very good.

14. Derek Carr

Derek Carr has been one of the most polarizing starters ever since his breakout season in 2016. Raiders fans in general love Carr and think he’s a top ten QB while many people also say he’s overrated. I personally view him in the middle as he has multiple desirable traits, although he’s never shown a true ‘it’ factor in his game. Carr has good enough physical traits to be a top-ten QB, but he hasn’t developed well enough in the small areas like decision-making and pocket presence to reach that level. Carr has never truly had great circumstances as whenever his offense was good, the defense happened to be terrible, and finally, when the whole team started to thrive, multiple off-field disasters dramatically held back the season. Now that Carr has a significantly improved roster alongside a great head coach hire in Josh McDaniels, he has a shot to truly prove himself as a top-tier starter. Davante Adams is the most notable improvement and he’ll greatly benefit this offense, especially with Darren Waller as a weapon too. While his processor and overall accuracy is not an area of concern, his ability to sense and throw under pressure is a question mark heading into this season. The Raider’s pass-pro is not a strength nor a liability, but given this division, it will be difficult for them to have playoff success unless Carr improves in this area. What also keeps Carr from being a top-ten QB is his inability to consistently take risks when he needs to. This very well could improve next season, but until he shows more consistency in this aspect, his decision-making is what it is.

13. Ryan Tannehill

Fans who only pay attention to stats and highlights would disagree with this ranking, but his stats don’t exactly reflect who he is on film. Ryan Tannehill has a good arm alongside very good mobility and it wasn’t until the 2019 season that he became a legit starter. Before Tannehill developed into the player he is today, he struggled mightily with pocket sense and also was checking down the football too much. Something that’s improved but still isn’t as good as it could be is his play extension and ability to elude pressure. In general, he has gotten better at sensing it, which is ideal for the offense he’s in, but he will still continue to struggle against top-tier pass-rushes. What Tannehill does best is thrive off of the dominant run game they have with play-action passes over the middle. Having AJ Brown here was a crucial aspect of making their pass game so efficient and it will take time for the rookie Treylon Burks to get up to a similar level. Brown specifically helped so much by being an elite ‘RAC’ threat as well as being a very reliable hands guy over the middle. Tannehill is now one of the better QBs currently in the NFL from the mental part of it, and while his processor isn’t amazing, their scheme does a great job of minimizing his job in that regard. He also has a very good deep ball and will take those chances when he’s asked to. Overall the things he needs to improve on are traits that will be more impactful as the team gets worse. That is the benefit of drafting Malik Willis as he can sit for at least two seasons and if Tannehill doesn’t improve, the next possible answer is already there.