San Francisco 49ers 2023 Preview: The NFL’s Best Defense Paired With An Elite Offensive Mind

After one of the most frustrating and heartbreaking losses in the NFC championship game, I’d imagine the 49ers would have a chip on their shoulder heading into the year. Brock Purdy surprised many people and is now the expected starter. I believe Trey Lance should get a shot to start over Purdy because he has a far better upside and expands the offense more. It’s not like there aren’t pros to starting Purdy. He has a significantly more developed processor and better short accuracy. The Niners would ultimately be okay with either QB, but I’m disappointed we won’t see Lance in this offense. Like the Chargers, San Fran has been plagued with the injury bug countless times. If luck goes their way in 2023, however, the NFC is wide open, and watch out for this team.

There were several critical losses over the offseason, but they also have guys who can step up. Signing Javon Hargrave will make up for the losses they had on defense. Hargrave is a very experienced interior pass rusher who will make this a historically good pass rush. Losing Samson Ebukam is no big deal, as Drake Jackson has all the potential to thrive next to Bosa. They replaced Jimmie Ward with Tashaun Gibson Sr. The big question is this Right Tackle spot, as Mike McGlinchey played a massive role in the run game. Jaylon Moore could be decent or could be a liability. Shanahan will find ways to overcome it, but this O-Line is something to watch. I expect this to be the best defense in the NFL and for Shanahan to make excellent use of his elite playmakers.

I watched all-22 footage on every team and reconciled it with advanced stats such as PFF. Based on film and stats, I develop grades for every position by using a formula that takes into account every player on the depth chart. Shout out to TFG for inspiring this kind of content. Please use code TREYSCHNEIDER on Underdog Fantasy to match your deposit up to $100. Gamble responsibly and leave your feedback on Twitter @FBIntellect.

Key

Grading scale: 20-100.

(+): The player is expected to improve.

Player Tiers:

Team Overview

Coaching Staff

Kyle Shanahan is my favorite offensive mind in football. That isn’t to say he’s the very best, but I can’t help but love what he’s done for football. If you’d like to learn more about Shanahan and his system, read “A Comprehensive Deep Dive Into The Shanahan Style Offense.” In addition to drastically changing the game schematically, Shanahan has developed an outstanding culture. Guys in the trenches play physically as hell and fight until the end. We’ve also seen a handful of young guys who’ve stepped up and played well. Some of their high draft picks didn’t develop much, but they get stellar development out of their late-rounders. As a game manager, Shanahan has made mistakes, although he is still better than most.

Shanahan has called plays on offense for over a decade and will continue to until he retires. As many know, he runs a wide-zone offense that’s extremely run-oriented. Like his father, he loves to run, although Kyle has evolved his father’s scheme. As discussed in the article, he’s added a plethora of creative wrinkles to the offense. In addition, he runs much more gap and power than his father did.

The fundamental premise of the scheme is to build off the run with play-action. To confuse Linebackers, heavy motion, and misdirection are used. Shanahan wants to take play-action shots but is a bit limited with Purdy. He has excellent short-intermediate accuracy but doesn’t have the arm strength to attack deep. With Purdy, it’ll be a much more horizontal offense with more screens. Although this offense will be limited to an extent, I’m very excited to see it back in action.

Steve Wilks has big shoes to fill after Demeco Ryans killed it as a DC here. Wilks was brought in from Carolina to run a similar-style defense. I have high expectations for Wilks, as he got the Carolina defense to look excellent when he took over. He was heavily influenced by Ron Rivera and coaches with an aggressive mentality because of it. The Panthers ranked 9th in blitz percentage in 2022, although Wilks was only the coach from week six on. He uses a 4-3 defensive front and occasionally brings out odd packages. Coverage-wise, it’s a lot of cover three and covers six and not a lot of man coverage. There’s also a fair share of cover three match. We see a decent amount of press coverage, but it’s also not a press-heavy scheme. It’s a balanced system, and this defense likely picks up where they left off.

49ers Offense

Overall Offense – 83.5 (9)

Ever since trading for McCaffrey, this offense went from great to incredible. Purdy stepped in and was a fine captain of the ship. He executed the fundamental aspects of the offense to perfection – something they never had before. The issue with Purdy is the same issue most QBs have. That is not being able to elevate the talent around him. He’s excellent at allowing his elite playmakers to produce but isn’t going to give much beyond that. Purdy will continue to improve, but I’d be surprised if he were ever a top-12 QB. If Purdy goes down, they’ll be good, as Lance and Darnold can play.

The weapons here will be a massive problem for pretty much every defense in the league. As long as everyone is healthy, three elite weapons are too much to handle on defense. Deebo Samuel is a unique Receiver who is unarguably the best RAC threat around. His pure route running and drop issues keep him from being near the best, but his skill set is perfect here. Brandon Aiyuk, while still developing, is a terrific second Receiver. He’s also crafty and elusive after the catch and is coming along as a route runner. Jauan Jennings is another excellent scheme fit and is a reliable Slot. He is very physical and adds value as a run blocker. There are also plenty of deep threats and gadget Receivers as depth.

George Kittle has been one of my favorite players for quite some time. He is one of the most entertaining players in the NFL and has an unparalleled impact on the game. His ability to run block is better than a lot of NFL O-Linemen. Additionally, he’s an elite receiving threat with incredible speed. The depth at Tight End is lacking, so Kittle must stay healthy. Kyle Juszczyk is undeniably the best Full Back in football. He’s on the perfect team, as Shanahan knows exactly how to use him. Christian McCaffrey is another guy who’s in the optimal offense. He fits the scheme to a tee and has one of the best run blockers ever to run behind. What McCaffrey does as a receiving back is remarkable. With incredible burst and agility, he also has elite hands. Elijah Mitchell is a quality back to depend on when McCaffrey needs rest. Mitchell had an impressive rookie year, and it’s good having him here.

With an aging LT and a massive departure at RT, you’d think this O-Line would be in poor shape. However, Trent Williams should still dominate, and the rest of the O-Line should get by. Williams is coming off back-to-back historic seasons, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. I was hesitant about Aaron Banks as a starter, but he’s gradually improved and is now solid in pass-pro. Jake Brendel was also a question mark last year, but he proved to be acceptable as a starter. Brendel is very athletic and an ideal Center in this scheme. Spencer Burford is a former Tackle and held up in pass-pro for the most part. Both these guards need to improve as run blockers, however. Jaylon Moore will likely start at Tackle and should be serviceable in pass-pro. Although, I’m a bit worried about how he’ll hold up blocking on the move. If it weren’t for Williams, this O-Line would be in abysmal shape, but he makes every bit of difference.

49ers Defense

Overall Defense – 84.4 (1)

The NFL’s number one defense is up for debate, but many reasons favor San Francisco in that regard. Charvarius Ward is coming off a career-best season. He has a borderline elite pressing ability, which matches well with this pass rush. His impact in run defense is also top-notch. The other Corner position is a bit worrisome, as there’s no clear starter. Deommodore Lemmoir is the starter listed, but I’d rather have Ambry Thomas out there. Either way, it’ll likely be a concern for San Francisco. Isaiah Oliver is the Slot, and while you could do worse, he isn’t someone you feel good about. He’ll at least defend the run well.

Tashaun Gibson Sr. was a critical signing, even though he isn’t that good. He can serviceably play Free Safety, which is crucial in this defense. Talanoa Hufanga broke out last season and demonstrated stellar instincts. He’s limited athletically but is a step ahead mentally. George Odum is a solid third Safety who can do a little bit of everything. Ji’Ayir Brown was a reach in the draft, and I hope he doesn’t have to play. He was an underwhelming watch as he’s too slow to cover and lacks run instincts. The secondary isn’t a strength here, but it’ll produce with an elite pass rush.

On the other hand, the Linebackers are a massive strength for San Francisco. Fred Warner is elite in almost every trait at Linebacker. He’s a remarkable athlete with all-around elite coverage skills and unparalleled instincts. Additionally, his impact on this locker room is game-changing. Dre Greenlaw is one of the best second Linebackers in the NFL. He had a rough start but quickly turned it around and had an exceptional season. Dee Winters is a rookie who could get playing time. He’s an intriguing athlete but is very raw.

Moreover, this D-Line is really where the Niners will make their money. Nick Bosa is coming off a monstrous season, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be just as dominant. His burst is genuinely better than most Receivers. To go along with that, he has legitimate length and power. He’s an absolute nightmare to go up against and will continue being an elite asset. You can expect to see Drake Jackson as the other EDGE on pass rush downs. He’s a highly gifted athlete with proper size and just needs to develop. I have a good feeling he’ll break out sooner than later. Clelin Ferrell was brought in to be a rotational EDGE. He’ll be more of a base front EDGE.

Arik Armstead, a freak athlete, will play EDGE on run-downs and DT on pass rush-downs. Armstead has the size and strength to play interior and the speed and quickness to play EDGE. When Bosa draws all this attention, Armstead can flourish in the middle. Javon Hargrave is quick off the ball and has some of the best finesse moves you’ll see in a Defensive Tackle. In addition, he’s a well-versed run defender. He’s everything they ever wanted out of Javon Kinlaw. Kinlaw himself will be a solid rotational guy. He’s abysmal in run defense but has some redeemable pass-rush traits. Kevin Givens is good enough in run defense for them not to get shredded in the middle. The EDGEs will be shut down in the run game, and as long as Kinlaw isn’t out there on run-downs, they’ll be well off. Despite Demeco Ryan’s departure, I can’t wait to see this elite, world-beating defense again.

49ers Schedule

Total Win Projection – 11.4