Josh Downs is a receiver who’s produced at an elite level against good competition and has a multitude of desirable traits. He’s caught a lot of hype, and while it may be too far for a slot, his film has popped off the screen. When a player looks good on film and produces well, it is always a good sign, but there are also reasons to be lower on him. While he can be used in many ways, he may be pigeon held to the slot. Even as a pure slot, though, he is an electric player who’ll bring good value in the late first to the early second round. Here we take a deep dive into Josh Downs and comprehensively analyze his strengths and weaknesses.
Five games were evaluated, and clips from his film are broken down here. All relevant traits were graded based on his film. His scouting report also factored in stats and analytics, such as PFF grades. Thank you to both TFG and PFF for inspiring this draft content. Please leave your feedback on Twitter, @FBIntellect.
| Profile |
|---|
| 5th WR / 1-2 RD | 5’8 / 171 | Class – JR | College – North Carolina |
| Pro Comparison |
|---|
| Darnell Mooney |
| Scheme |
|---|
| Slot/ Playmaker/ Vertical |
Receiving Stats
2022:
TGT – 116
REC – 94
YDS – 1,029
TDS – 11
2021:
TGT – 144
REC – 101
YDS – 1,335
TDS – 8
Clip Analysis
In this clip above, Josh Downs runs a stellar fade route and comes down with a very impressive catch. It shows you how good of ball skills he has to be able to come down with a fade at only 5’10.
Here he runs an impressive whip-it route that gains him roughly three yards of separation.
Downs comes down with a tough catch on a post route in this one. It is very hard to catch this while absorbing a hit.
Grades
Overall Draft Grade: 76.7
Impact Grade
Overall – 72.1
Vertical – 72.3
Possession – 71.1
Physical – 70.8
Slot – 74.8
Potential Grade
Overall – 86.6
Vertical – 87.5
Possession – 87.0
Physical – 83.2
Slot – 88.8
Traits/ Skills (see bottom of the page for scale)
Each trait/attribute is graded 1-7.
| Traits | Immediate | Potential |
| SPD | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| ACC | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| AGI | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| STR | 3 | 3.2 |
| VER | 5 | 5 |
| DRP | 5 | 6.2 |
| CIT | 4 | 4.8 |
| DCAT | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| REL | 3.4 | 5 |
| SRR | 5.2 | 6 |
| MRR | 4.3 | 5.8 |
| DRR | 4.5 | 6 |
| RAC | 5.6 | 6 |
| IQ | 3.8 | 5.4 |
| SEC | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| RBLK | 3.5 | 4 |
| WR Key |
|---|
| SPD – Speed ACC – Acceleration AGI – Agility STR – Strength VER – Vertical (height and jumping) DRP – Drop (while open, and accurate) CIT – Catch In Traffic DCAT – Difficult Catching (catch radius) |
| WR Key, Cont. |
|---|
| REL – Release SRR – Short Route Running MRR – Medium Route Running DRR – Deep Route Running RAC – Run After Catch IQ – Football IQ SEC – Ball Security (after the catch) RBLK – Run Blocking |
Player Notes
- Josh Downs is an explosive and twitchy slot that allows flexibility to be utilized creatively and motioned frequently.
Pros
- Is an uber-explosive receiver with the ability to make smooth and sharp cuts.
- Has a knack for coming down with tough, difficult catches despite the small size.
- Has very strong hands and doesn’t catch with his body.
- Has elite body control and ball-tracking ability. Also has the toughness to make difficult catches in traffic.
- Is a chest piece for coordinators as he can make big plays downfield out of the slot and be a RAC threat.
- has a sudden burst on his route breaks.
- Can stop on a dime on curls and hitches.
- Sells his fakes on vertical routes very well.
- Thrives in the red zone.
- He’s very twitchy after the catch and has plus vision; he is good at transitioning a catch to a run.
- Has good effort as a run blocker and plays with an enate physicality.
Cons
- He lacks size, which will limit the upside of his ball skills and release package, among other small aspects.
- Doesn’t use foot quickness to beat the press and was often bodied at the line of scrimmage.
- Doesn’t do much to get open and improvise when the play breaks down.
- Doesn’t utilize leverage when running routes and has a degree of hesitancy setting up route stems.
- He relies too much on his agility as a route runner.
- He won’t ever be a very good run blocker in the pros.
- Won’t be a very durable player due to his frame.
Combine
40 yd: 4.48
10 yd: 1.49
Shuttle:
3 cone:
Broad: 10’11”
Vertical: 38.5
Bench:
Arm Length:
Hand Size:
Grading Scale
Pot=Potential: players’ highest upside
Imp=Impact: player’s immediate impact
| Draft Grade Formula | |
| Age: 21-22: | POT=(32%) IMP=(68%) |
| Age: 23-24: | POT=(30%) IMP=(70%) |
| Age:-25+: | POT=(28%) IMP=(72%) |
| Good/ bad character: | POT=(+2%/-2%) IMP=(-2%/+2%) |
| Injury: | POT=(-1%) in increments |
| Scheme Grade Weight: |
|---|
| VER=28% POS=28% SLOT=20% PHY=24% |
| Individual trait scale (1-7): |
|---|
| 7 – Rare world-class skill; best in the league and no room for improvement | 6 – Great-elite skill; one of the best at that given trait but still has some room to improve | 5 – Very good; above average and has potential to be elite | 4 – Average; able to suffice but, not ideal long-term | 3 – Below average; able to suffice at college level | 2 – Poor; hinders overall play and is a liability to the team | 1 – Awful; not good enough to play given position at any level above D2 | Note: Consistency plays a large factor. |
| Overall Draft grade scale (15-100): |
|---|
| 84 – Perfect prospect | 81 – Bluechip prospect | 80 – Likely all-pro | 79 – Day one quality starter or superstar potential | 78 – Day one starter w/ all-pro upside | 77 – Day one starter w/ high-end upside | 76 – Boom or bust | 75 – Will become quality starter within 2-3 years | 74 – Boom or bust (high risk) | 73 – Will become starter within 2-3 years |
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